How Prabowo Foreign Policy Could Shape Indonesia After 2024 Elections
A look at future areas of change and continuity and coming geopolitical and geoeconomic stakes after polls close in Indonesia's 2024 presidential elections.
If Prabowo Subianto’s claimed victory in Indonesia’s February 14 presidential election is confirmed, the defense minister and former general will preside over a decisive few years in the country’s trajectory as a middle power, with important implications for its geopolitical and geoeconomic outlook as well as key relationships.
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How Prabowo Foreign Policy Could Shape Indonesia After 2024 Elections
Background
Indonesia’s next leader will preside over a decisive few years in the country’s trajectory as an Indo-Pacific power. While Indonesia is already the world’s fourth-largest country, boosting its credibility as an Indo-Pacific power rests on its ability to sustain high growth rates, calibrate major power ties and develop its defense capabilities strategically. Jokowi’s domestic-focused, economic-first foreign policy represents a mixed inheritance. Jokowi has set Indonesia on the path to becoming a top economy by 2045 if it escapes the middle income trap looming over other economies like the Philippines and Thailand1. But it has raised concerns. These include Indonesia’s growing economic reliance on China, a perceived lack of presidential leadership on geopolitical questions as well as fears of democratic erosion, which deepened amid Jokowi’s maneuvering to get his son on the ticket with Prabowo, his twice election opponent turned-defense-minister2. Some of these challenges were on display in the campaign. For instance, the other two candidates apart from Prabowo — ex-governors Ganjar Pranowo and Anies Baswedan — tried to articulate more proactive or principled foreign policy approaches relative to Jokowi3.
Select Recent Developments in Indonesian Foreign Policy Ahead of its 2024 Elections
Indonesia’s foreign policy inbox is filled with pressing priorities, many of which Prabowo is familiar with if his declared victory is officially confirmed and he enters office later this year4. Among the three presidential tickets, Prabowo has had the best known views on foreign and defense policies given his past role as ex-special forces commander — which ended with rights violations — and Jokowi’s defense minister. Known for his off-the-cuff remarks and temperamental style, he has continued to make headlines, from proposing a peace plan on the Russia-Ukraine war to hitting out at Western restrictions on Indonesia’s palm oil exports5. Yet Indonesia faces a full foreign policy inbox that any president will find challenging to manage (see the above graphic for select examples of foreign policy issues over the past year). Indonesia also faces greater scrutiny on its performance in this regard. The country is coming off of two active foreign policy years with its G-20 and ASEAN chairmanships that have reinforced its regional and international stature, albeit under a president who has had little interest in high geopolitics6. That period has reinforced the array of issues at stake for Indonesia, from regional issues like ASEAN unity, Myanmar and the South China Sea to global ones like U.S.-China competition and Israel-Gaza conflict.
Significance
Despite the focus on Prabowo’s past foreign policy rhetoric and positions, how exactly that will translate into leading Indonesia if he is inaugurated as its next president remains to be seen. Much of how foreign policy played out under Jokowi and his predecessor Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono depended not just on their worldview, but how they delegated across advisors and ministries. As such, choices in the coming months on decision-making and personnel will be more revealing. More specific to Prabowo, it is also far from clear how Jokowi’s support and his son’s role as vice-president will affect Prabowo’s actual governance, the extent of continuity in Jokowi’s legacy as well as the substance of a foreign policy agenda7. And as much as Prabowo may have reinvented his image on the campaign trail, his temperamental and vocal style is quite different from Jokowi’s, and he will enter office with established relationships across the international stage. As subtle as these points may seem, they could prove important even as the balance of opportunities and risks in Indonesia’s relationships with key countries like China and the United States remain largely the same in areas like defense, infrastructure or critical minerals.
More specifically, policy-wise, a Prabowo foreign policy would represent a major test for the question of continuity and change in Indonesia’s approach to the world and Jokowi’s legacy. A closer look at Jokowi’s key priorities and Prabowo’s tendencies provides at least a sense of where we can expect areas of continuity and change (see table below along with further analysis of future prospects under a Prabowo presidency).
Key Indonesia Policy Priority Areas to Watch for Continuity and Change
