What Next for Myanmar's Post-Coup Power Struggle?
What Next for Myanmar's Post-Coup Power Struggle?
Amid dire warnings of further conflict escalation and breakdown in 2024 and beyond, a new book sheds light on the country's ongoing struggle for freedom and reform.
A new book by a former top advisor to Myanmar’s ousted civilian government sheds light on the story of the country’s ongoing struggle for freedom and reform amid grim post-coup realities.
WonkCount: 1,756 words (~8 minutes)
What Next for Myanmar's Post-Coup Power Struggle?
Context
“Little economic growth is expected in Myanmar in the near term,” notes the gloomy December 2023 iteration of the World Bank’s Myanmar Economic Monitor. 1. The report is just the latest sign of Myanmar’s massive challenges today following the February 2021 coup, where it remains the only East Asian economy not back to pre-pandemic levels of economic activity2. Since then, the country has seen spiking poverty, declining wages, falling investment, soaring inflation and a volatile currency. And as we noted in our 2024 ASEAN Wonk forecast and analyses of recent Myanmar works over the past year, though the junta is determined to hold on to power, resistance groups are playing a growing role in the country’s landscape. A case in point is Operation 1027 and its broader implications for aspects including China’s regional influence, subregional Mekong security, conflict dynamics and border trade.
Select Key World Bank Myanmar Economic Monitor Statistics from December 2023
A new book titled An Unlikely Prisoner by Sean Turnell, an Australian economist and former top advisor to Aung San Suu Kyi, provides a firsthand account of life amid Myanmar’s ongoing struggle for freedom and reform. Based around Turnell’s 650-day detention in Myanmar under the ruling military junta which ended in November 2022, the book is also more broadly the latest chapter of a longer story of attempted reform in a country which went from one of the richest at the dawn of the 20th century to one of its poorest at the dawn of the 21st — as Turnell succinctly frames the poles of modern Myanmar history in the opening of his authoritative 2009 work on its financial system Fiery Dragons3. An Unlikely Prisoner runs just over 280 pages and has 18 chapters.
Analysis
The book offers a firsthand account into Myanmar’s trajectory particularly over the past decade — including the National League for Democracy’s (NLD’s) time in power in the second half of the 2010s as well as the aftermath of the 2021 coup. Along the way, it also provides insights into policy developments in the country amid structural realities. For example, though Turnell argues that the NLD-era economic reforms which he advised on were critical to address the “original sin” of massive state spending funded by the excessive printing of money, they also created “powerful enemies” waiting to exact revenge and were undermined by “the government’s own missteps” following the Myanmar military’s atrocities in Rakhine state.4 Yet, for Turnell, this still pales in comparison to Myanmar’s outlook under the junta, where he sees the country continuing “its slide towards a failed state.”5 In one instance, noting that he contracted COVID-19 five times in thirteen months despite receiving four Chinese vaccines, he asks rhetorically: “Was my case an articulate demonstration of the (in)effectiveness or these drugs perhaps, and how a rogue Myanmar was being increasingly taken to the cleaners by one of their few powerful friends?”6
The book also does not shy away from addressing some of the challenges of operating in Myanmar. Turnell heaps praise on Myanmar’s people — not just Suu Kyi and ex-NLD politicians, but also home-grown economists he worked with at a semi-government think tank and brave prisoners who protected him in detention. He also notes his privilege as a renowned foreigner, which meant that, in addition to tireless advocates in his wife and influential friends, he received assistance from embassies in addition to his home country of Australia, including the U.S. and Britain (the book has a dedicated concluding section with around 12 pages of acknowledgements)7. At the same time, he also candidly addresses issues he experienced in the country. For example, Turnell spotlights the conspiracy theory that his NLD advisor role was part of a “sinister foreign cohort” led by George Soros to undermine Myanmar’s sovereignty8. Unfortunately, Myanmar is not the only Southeast Asian country where such theories exist. But Turnell notes that in Myanmar ‘s context, the backdrop to this is key due to “xenophobia, ethnic chauvinism and religious bigotry” gripping parts of Myanmar society, “to the tragic and chronic detriment” of ethnic minorities.9 Other chapters also look at aspects observers will find useful (see table below).
