New China Indonesia Pillar Amid Prabowo South China Sea Hype
Plus new minilateral APEC talk; groundbreaking AI model; rare earth roadmap inroads; emerging shipping corridor; shifting startup hubs and much, much more.
Greetings to new readers and welcome all to the latest edition of the weekly ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief! If you haven’t already, you can upgrade to a paid subscription for $5 a month/$50 a year below to receive full posts by inserting your email address and then selecting an annual or monthly option. You can visit this page for more on pricing for institutions, groups as well as discounts. For current paid subscribers, please make sure you’re hitting the “view entire message” prompt if it comes up at the end of a post to see the full version.
For this iteration of ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief, we are looking at:
Assessing the geopolitical and geoeconomic significance of a new China-Indonesia partnership pillar, with insights from ASEAN Wonk’s recent trip to Jakarta amid lingering questions on Prabowo’s foreign policy trajectory;
Mapping of regional developments, such as new sectoral minilateral inroads at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meetings; first defense dialogue and Mekong dispute management;
Charting evolving geopolitical, geoeconomic and security trends such as groundbreaking AI model; new rare earth roadmap inroads and shifting climate futures outlook;
Tracking and analysis of industry developments and quantitative indicators including emerging shipping corridors; evolving startup ecosystem landscape; new natural gas infrastructure development and more;
And much more! ICYMI, check out our latest ASEAN Wonk Podcast episode examining 2025 regional and global implications stemming from dynamics in the Myanmar civil war, including ASEAN diplomacy and major power stakes.
This Week’s WonkCount: 2,234 words (~ 10 minutes)
New Minilateral APEC Talk; First Defense Dialogue; Mekong Dispute Management & More
Coming Trade Prospects; Theories of Victory & Strengthening Climate Resilience
“Trade growth forecasts for APEC indicate uneven trajectories,” notes a regional trends analysis report released by the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum (APEC) Policy Support Unit for November 2024, with APEC leaders having just met in Peru. The analysis notes that multilateralism is required to “enhance cooperation, address shared challenges and reduce the risk of increased protectionism” amid ongoing regional and global trends (link).
Projected 2025 Trade Outlook for Select APEC Economies (%, y-o-y): Volume of Goods and Services
“Henceforth, the Filipino Theory of Victory should involve a two-tiered strategy: a denial strategy to deal with the present situation in the WPS [West Philippine Sea/South China Sea] and a cost-imposition strategy in case of imminent conflict,” argues a new policy paper released by the Ateneo Policy Center. The paper calls for a multi-dimensional approach to countering China’s strategy against the Philippines that extends beyond the military domain (link).
Depiction of Dual Track Strategy of Theory of Victory for Philippines Against China South China Sea Approach
“Acting on climate risks and opportunities is a key priority for finance and planning ministries across Southeast Asia,” notes a new report released by the Asian Development Bank drawing on regional cases on climate resilience. The report addresses various aspects including risk impacts, potential shocks and funding deployment dynamics (link).
Depiction of Good Practices in Climate Resilience Financial Management and Mobilization
New China Indonesia Pillar Amid Prabowo South China Sea Hype
What’s Behind It
Indonesia and China added a new pillar to their comprehensive strategic partnership (CSP) during Prabowo’s first overseas visit stop since being inaugurated last month1. ASEAN Wonk was in Jakarta just as Prabowo’s trip kicked off, where there are still questions around the administration’s engagement with individual ministries and its U.S.-China balance carefully watched in regional capitals. Some of these questions played out during Prabowo’s China stop (see trip timeline below), where both sides announced the addition of a security pillar as the fifth pillar of their CSP in addition to the initial four around political; economic; people-to-people and maritime issues2. For instance, Indonesia’s foreign ministry had to publicly clarify that a hedged but striking reference to “joint development” of “overlapping claims” in the China-Indonesia joint statement did not validate China’s nine-dash line or undermine Indonesia’s non-claimant status 3. Bilateral deals and understandings are not new in the region, be it previously botched Sino-Philippine agreements or proposed dialogues with Malaysia. But they are being carefully watched amid speculation on 2025 prospects in the decades-long pursuit of a binding code of conduct.
Select Key Developments on Indonesia Foreign Policy During Prabowo First Overseas Post-Inauguration Trip
The engagement also spotlighted the broader question of China’s attempted security inroads in its ties with Southeast Asian states more generally. As we have noted on ASEAN Wonk, China has tried to expand its influence into the defense realm in Southeast Asia despite distrust and disputes4. Cases in point including presence at Cambodia’s Ream Naval base, the beleaguered Thailand submarine sale and growing minilateral exercises. Potential inroads with Indonesia under Prabowo is a subject that attracts interest because of Jakarta’s heft, Prabowo’s defense background and limited historical security links amid the Indonesian military’s anti-communist orientation and outstanding disputes5. China’s inroads under Prabowo’s domestic-centered, economic-focused predecessor Joko “Jokowi” Widodo saw little evidence of major spillovers into the security domain. Yet close observers will recall that both sides had nonetheless agreed to explore some security-related items including a new “2+2” dialogue for foreign and defense ministers and more coast guard engagement6. This came amid the elevation of U.S.-Indonesia ties, now awaiting a Trump second term as previewed by some of Prabowo’s engagements on his U.S. leg right after China.
Why It Matters
Prabowo’s visit points to key datapoints to watch in China-Indonesia relations and the implications for Southeast Asian states as well as the region (see originally generated ASEAN Wonk table below on notable developments on areas to watch, select major datapoints and key domains. Paying subscribers can also read on for more on what to expect and future implications in the rest of the “Why It Matters” and “Where It’s Headed” sections, along with remaining paid-only sections of the newsletter as usual).
Future Areas to Watch in China-Indonesia Relations, Along with Key Domains and Major Components in Ties
