New China Thailand Submarine Swap Deal Chatter Puts Foreign Policy and Security Outlook in Focus
New China Thailand Submarine Swap Deal Chatter Puts Foreign Policy and Security Outlook in Focus
Plus South China Sea flare-up aftermath; information operations; Israel-Hamas war fallout; new communications regulations chatter & much more.
Greetings to new readers and welcome all to this edition of the weekly ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief! For this iteration, we are looking at:
Assessing the significance of the latest twist in the ongoing China-Thailand submarine saga that first surfaced back in 2015;
Mapping of regional developments including perceptions in Malaysia of the Israel-Hamas conflict; responses of other countries to the China-Philippines maritime spat and more;
Charting evolving trends such as on influence operations; energy futures and related issues;
Tracking and analysis of industry developments including dropped infrastructure projects; new communications regulations and the future of the sustainable trade landscape;
And much more! ICYMI, Check out our review of a new book on Singapore’s grand strategy and its geopolitical implications in an environment of heightened U.S.-China competition.
WonkCount: 1,599 words (~8 minutes reading time)
Malaysia in the Israel-Hamas War; China-Philippines Maritime Spat Aftermath & More
New China Thailand Submarine Swap Deal Chatter Puts Foreign Policy and Security Outlook in Focus
Thailand’s detailing of a sub-frigate swap spotlights the continued fallout from a long-troubled China-Thailand submarine deal that had raised concerns about the U.S.-Thai alliance given Beijing’s security inroads and has also put more scrutiny on the emerging foreign and defense policy approach of the new Thai government.
What’s Behind It
Thailand announced additional details about a potential swap deal to replace its earlier submarine purchase from China with a frigate. Thai Defense Minister Sutin Klungsang said that Thailand would ask China to either reduce the price of a frigate the Thai navy would buy in place of a submarine or supply the ship with weapons installed1. This follows earlier suggestions by Thailand’s new government that came to power in August that it would consider various options including bartering or purchasing other mutually agreed items2.
The move is the latest development in a long-running saga with Thailand’s attempted China submarine purchase, which first began in 2015. Thailand has long lacked a submarine capability and has failed since the 1990s to ink submarine deals with suppliers including Germany and South Korea. Yet its decision in June 2015 for a billion-dollar deal to buy three submarines from China — the biggest single purchase of its kind in Thailand’s history which came after a military coup the previous year and strained ties with the United States — raised question marks given Thailand’s traditional status as a U.S. treaty ally3. Since the outset, deal has been dogged by challenges including cost, domestic politics and COVID-19 (see table below on select developments to date). China also has not gotten the German engine for the one initial boat for delivery, which in 2022 was chalked up to a decades-old embargo. As noted previously on ASEAN Wonk, the two sides had attempted to work through alternatives with little progress to date.
Select Developments Related to China- Thailand Submarine Deal
Why It Matters
The embattled submarine deal has been evolving amid a shift in Thailand’s broader alignments with China and the United States over the past decade. At one level, the deal is a cautionary tale amid headlines that can exaggerate China’s defense inroads in Southeast Asia and the fraying of U.S. alliances. Thailand has continued to cultivate closer security ties with Beijing in some areas such as exercises and arms exports, but these are still far from the decades-old relationship Bangkok has with the United States which extends to hundreds of engagements annually as well as areas like defense sales and military education. Ties with Washington have also improved since the challenges that followed the 2014 coup. Under the administration of U.S. President Joe Biden, the two sides have made further inroads in defense ties, with publicized manifestations such as a new “2+2” strategic and defense dialogue and a new communique that commits to expanding relations in areas like law enforcement and cybersecurity4.
It also comes as the new Thai government under Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin develops its foreign and security policy approach. The bulk of the government’s focus thus far has been on economic policy. But it has also signaled its emerging approach to defense policy through moves such as the appointment of a civilian to the defense minister portfolio and pledges to more closely link arms procurement plans to economic benefits5. There are also more fundamental questions such as around Thailand’s military budget (see recent trajectory below) and its more urgent defense needs in the aerial and maritime domains6.
What Lies Ahead
Looking ahead, there will continue to be scrutiny around the future of the deal, including any swap arrangement. Within Thailand, talk of the swap deal has already prompted broader questions, such as what will be done with the costly submarine-related infrastructure the country has already built to date and broader challenges such as the lack of defense transparency7.
More generally, there will also be a focus on how this issue relates to broader issues, including the new Thai government’s approach to both China and the United States as well as foreign and defense policy. It is still early days, and we have so far mostly heard acknowledgements of both countries’ importance to Thailand’s economy when Srettha visited the United States in September and made a trip to China earlier this month. This has also come in the midst of crises such as the Siam Paragon shooting which killed a Chinese national and the Israel-Hamas war which has seen Thais killed and held hostage. Furthermore, as noted previously on ASEAN Wonk, there are also broader questions around Thailand’s approach to the world across the board including on Myanmar, the Russia-Ukraine War, the Mekong subregion and ASEAN.
China’s Influence Operations in the Philippines; Southeast Asia’s Energy Snapshot; The Tatmadaw’s Potential Road to Nowhere in Myanmar
“The Philippines is confronting an unexpected adversary in its fight for its claims over parts of the South China Sea: an outspoken band of its own citizens echoing pro-Beijing narratives,” notes a piece published by the Philippine Center for Investigative Journalism. The article goes on to examine concerns voiced by Philippine officials about the state of the information environment on this score, with specific examples and mini-cases (link).
“[Southeast Asia] experiences the second-highest energy demand growth in the world after India until 2050…Southeast Asia also sees the largest absolute growth of CO2 emissions of any region in the world,” note the projections in the new iteration of the International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook. Southeast Asia also ranks as the second-highest of any region in the world by 2050 in terms of its share in coal in power generation. The report delves into other key trends and includes a snapshot of policies employed by regional states (see image below) (link).
Select Snapshot of Key Energy Policy Initiatives in Southeast Asia
“It will be difficult for the military in the future to convince the population that, as it was in the years after independence, its role is to safeguard the state,” notes a chapter in a new edited volume on Myanmar. The chapter examines military dynamics through different periods in the country out to the 2021 coup. Other chapters of the book, which is under open access, address various aspects of the country’s politics, economy and society (link).
Dropped Infrastructure Deals; New Communications Regulations Chatter & Much More
