Podcast: South China Sea Scenarios and the US-Philippines Alliance

Future-looking insights on Taiwan, South China Sea, disinformation, minilateralism, the future of the US-Philippine alliance amid electoral shifts and beyond.

INTRODUCTION

ASEAN Wonk: Welcome to the ASEAN Wonk Podcast, where we bring you expert insights and regional perspectives on Southeast Asia and Indo Pacific geopolitics and geoeconomics. I'm your host, Dr. Prashanth Parameswaran. If you haven't already, please do subscribe to the ASEAN Wonk platform at www.aseanwonk.com so you don't miss our posts.

Our guest today on the podcast is Rear Admiral (retd.) Rommel Jude Ong, who retired in 2019 as the vice commander of the Philippine Navy and is currently a professor of practice with the Ateneo School of Government, which is one of the leading universities in the Philippines. We begin our discussion with the current state of affairs on China-Philippine tensions in the South China Sea. Make sure you listen to the full episode to hear more specific and future-looking insights on a Taiwan scenario, minilateralism, disinformation, the future of the US-Philippine alliance amid electoral shifts on both sides and beyond.

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SERIOUSNESS OF CHINA-PHILIPPINES TENSIONS IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA

So Rear Admiral Rommel Jude Ong, thank you so much for joining us on the podcast. Obviously a lot to talk about with respect to China, the Philippines and the South China Sea. But I wanted to start off — you are somebody who has been involved as a practitioner for a long time, as well as now an expert and an analyst. When you have seen the recent developments that you've seen over the past few months — everything from run-ins between China and the Philippines on the water as well as calls within the Philippines to activate the US Philippine Mutual Defense Treaty — I know you have your own views irrespective of the public conversation. On a scale of one to ten, ten being the more the most serious that the situation could be, where are you in terms of that gauge between one and ten, and how serious is the situation as somebody who has been a practitioner in this space? 

Rear Admiral (Rtd.) Rommel Jude Ong: Well, first of all, Dr. Prashanth, thank you for having me. Now as you said, on the scale of one to ten, maybe it's a six. Maybe it's a six. Things are worse off in the public opinion space, but I think it's still manageable from the Philippine perspective. It's a matter of being aware and being steadfast in what you need to do. 

MINILATERAL SECURITY ARRANGEMENTS

ASEAN Wonk: Great. And just to quickly follow up on that, you've written quite a bit on the Philippines and its pursuit of other partnerships and minilateral security arrangements. So not just with the United States, but I think as you've pointed out in some of your public writing, this is something that's really cross continental. I mean, the Philippines is engaging with partners, not just Australia or the United States, but this includes others like Canada and France. It's really an extensive network that the Philippines is cultivating. But if you were to say sort of the top three security partners and relationships that our listeners, readers, and watchers should pay attention to, what would those three be? And equally importantly, what are the functional areas of minilateral cooperation that you would sort of see as being the top priority for the Philippines as it approaches the situation with China and the South China Sea? 

Rear Admiral (Rtd.) Rommel Jude Ong: The first one will be the Philippine-US alliance. That will be the number one. That's the foundation of our defense posture when we're looking at external considerations or external challenges. Second would be Japan. When push comes to shove and let's say, for example, the United States has to be somewhere else. It has other concerns in the other parts of the world. Then I believe the go-to country to work with would be Japan. One, because it's a regional power. It's a resident power in East Asia. And it has been an active player as well in the region. Third would be Australia, of course. We have very strong bilateral relations with Australia. We have a very strong history of maritime or naval engagements with Australia as well. Fourth one would be South Korea primarily because most of our recent defense acquisitions, particularly for the navy and the air force, are coming in from South Korea. In our discussions with some of the South Korean academe, they were jokingly saying: “We're now the new arsenal of democracy okay?” And for the Philippines, that's true. We source most of our new equipment and weapon systems from South Korea. That would be my top of the list. 

“NEWER” SECURITY PARTNERS AND DEFENSE NETWORKING

ASEAN Wonk: Considering these proliferating minilaterals and security agreements, sometimes it's really hard to actually get these things signed and implemented and actually build these relationships. Interoperability beyond this kind of top tier of partners, if you will, how would you think about the other countries like France and Canada — or even India for example in terms of dialogues. Is there a way to think about different tiers, or is there a different way to think about those other partners?

Rear Admiral (Rtd.) Rommel Jude Ong: I don't think it would be in terms of tiers. Rather, it's more of timing. The countries I mentioned before are ones where we already have had robust relationships before. And the other countries you mentioned — France, Canada, parts of Europe — those are emerging engagements that the Philippines has. There were already some preliminary discussions, and I think there will be some form of the formal defense cooperation agreements coming in, let's say, from Canada; even from France. So those are I think in the pipeline. I'm not excluding them. I'm just waiting for the ink to dry in terms of what's signed actually and what's on the fine print. 

FUTURE CHINA-PHILIPPINES CRISIS SCENARIOS TO WATCH

ASEAN Wonk: Right. That makes sense. And so moving on to something which a lot of the observers are watching the space on events and developments that have been happening with the Philippines and China, one obvious question that pops up is how do we really think about future scenarios involving the Philippines and China, particularly with respect to Second Thomas Shoal and the Sierra Madre. And there have been, as you know, long discussions about how do we think about resupply missions, but also reinforcement and other related issues. What are the scenarios that you're sort of most worried about, and how do you think about potential likelihood and the potential consequences that could arise with respect to Second Thomas Shoal in particular, which is the flashpoint that obviously has been in the headlines of late?

Rear Admiral (Rtd.) Rommel Jude Ong: Let me address your question from a tactical lens first, but I'd like to delve more on the strategic one. Because Second Thomas Shoal and Sierra Madre has sort of become elevated as an issue. You cannot just frame it as a tactical problem. But let me address the tactical lens first, okay? So the worst case scenario would be….

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