Exclusive: Is the Philippines China South China Sea Fight Working?
Exclusive: Is the Philippines China South China Sea Fight Working?
An exclusive interview with a leader in the Philippines transparency war against China in the South China Sea on where things stand and what lies ahead.
ASEAN Wonk had a live conversation with Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) Commodore Dr. Jay Tristan Tarriela last week in Jakarta delving deep into the current state and future trajectory of the campaign he has helped lead against China in the South China Sea as well as the implications for the wider region in areas like intra-ASEAN and ASEAN diplomacy, foreign partnerships and defense policy. Tarriela has been a key spokesman for the PCG and the wider National Task Force on what the Philippines calls the West Philippine Sea. Below you will find a lightly edited transcript of this conversation.
(Note to Readers: Greetings from Mindanao in the southern Philippines — ASEAN Wonk is on the ground over the next month or so in several maritime and mainland Southeast Asian states and border regions for a few separate projects and conferences. In addition to regular coverage, we will include snapshots of shareable findings where they tie in with developments, with this interview being a case in point).
WonkCount: 3,569 words (~17 minutes)
Q&A: Exclusive: Is the Philippines China South China Sea Fight Working?
ASEAN Wonk: The transparency campaign and aspects of the Philippines’ approach more broadly continues to attract international attention, but I’d like to start by stepping back a bit and see if we can evaluate it from a broader perspective. To start with, going beyond the headlines, could you give our readers a sense of how the effectiveness of this transparency campaign is being evaluated? And what are the criteria being used?
Commodore Tarriela: Well, first of all, I think it's not my personal criteria. The transparency strategy has always been re-evaluated every once in a while with the National Task Force, whether we measure this by public opinion or we try to analyze the Chinese response every time we publicize or even the diplomatic reaction of China. But generally, we believe that our transparency strategy since we started it has become very effective. First of all, although most people would always only look at the resupply mission [related to Second Thomas Shoal], it's important for us to understand that the entire West Philippine Sea is so vast. So for example, the Coast Guard vessels before are being shadowed from side to side, right? But right after the transparency, the China Coast Guard vessels that follow the Coast Guard vessels are now from behind. They think that we are always documenting their bullying or aggressive behavior. That's why it's easier for us now to patrol the vast waters of the West Philippine Sea.
Now, if you're going to ask me what about its impact in Second Thomas Shoal or in Scarborough Shoal, since we started this transparency, during the time of former President Rodrigo Duterte, the Philippine Coast Guard vessels and the Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources (BFAR), we can only go as far as 12 nautical miles because the Chinese Coast Guard would always prevent us from getting near. Nowadays Coast Guard vessels and BFAR vessels are actually 500 meters away from the shore so it has already created so much impact. And if we're going to talk about Second Thomas Shoal, before, Coast Guard vessels are only asked to conduct escort missions until Sabina Shoal, which is the rendezvous point, basically, of their supply boats. And then we tried to get near as 10, 8, 6, 4, 2, and then just right in front of the entrance of the Shoal. We believe that all of this constitutes progress as we try to evaluate its impact on the level of Chinese responses.
But the last resupply mission, wherein the Chinese never really hesitated to make use of jet stream water cannon, that obviously, you know, surprised all of the media and journalists in different parts of the globe saying that the David and Goliath narrative of the Philippines is not becoming effective. Rather, Goliath became more Goliath trying to show the world that they are really out there to flex their muscle and silence everybody. But for us, this still a success story for the transparency because we were able to expose China that they are really not a benevolent nation that they want to pretend to be as they engage smaller Pacific Island countries to convince them that they should side more with China. So the mere fact that China is not hesitating to remove that kind of mask of pretension and becoming more Goliath, that's the very objective of what we're doing. And for us, it's a victory for the transparency strategy.
“So the mere fact that China is not hesitating to remove that kind of mask of pretension and becoming more Goliath, that's the very objective of what we're doing. And for us, it's a victory for the transparency strategy”.
ASEAN Wonk: One other thing you’ve mentioned publicly is that when you look at the level of support for the Philippines in its transparency campaign, there is still a bit of a regional gap among Southeast Asian countries in terms of overt support. This notion of countries being “alone” arguably goes back decades. The Vietnamese in the 1970s and 1980s were facing this alone as well and they were outside ASEAN, and even during former president Benigno Aquino III Manila went forward alone in the international court case. But what is your sense of where this regional gap stands today, and do you see any indications of what might result in it changing in any way?
Commodore Tarriela: Well, I would understand some of the Southeast Asian claimant states in the South China Sea, why they choose not to say something about, one, the military operation in Second Thomas Shoal, two, the swarming of the Chinese maritime militia within our exclusive economic zone. Because it would undermine their own claims in the South China Sea, whether it's Vietnam or Malaysia, right? It's really understandable. But when we talk about the aggression of Chinese Coast Guard towards the Filipino fishermen or the damage to the marine environment, I'm really expecting that all of them have to rise up and then criticize and condemn Chinese actions.
If the question is, why are they not doing that? That has always been a concern for us in the past months already. You can probably notice it's President Bongbong Marcos all by himself in ASEAN meetings that talks about the aggression in the South China Sea. And other ASEAN leaders are not doing anything or not even commenting to those people even as there are factual narratives supported by the images and videos covered by international media. And they just kind of ignore it as if it is never really happening.
ASEAN Wonk: One other aspect that you've talked about, which is broader than just the South China Sea, is a particular facet of Chinese actions that goes by different names — foreign influence operations, information campaigns, disinformation — and the effects in the Philippines. You've talked publicly about some of this as well, and we’ve also seen some aspects of this surface in other parts of Southeast Asia. What do you think the effect has been in terms of publicizing this issue? And to your point about making this about the Philippine people, have you seen the response from Philippine society and the awareness of this increase?