Vietnam-Philippines South China Sea Inroads in Focus Amid New Pacts
Regional geopolitical and geoeconomic implications in focus amid a much-anticipated development.
New Vietnam-Philippines pacts signed during a recent state visit spotlight the geopolitical and geoeconomic opportunities that lie ahead for both sides, with much of the public focus on alignment regarding the South China Sea and wider implications for Southeast Asia and the broader Indo-Pacific region.
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Vietnam-Philippines South China Sea Inroads in Focus Amid New Pacts
Background
Though the logic of Philippines-Vietnam cooperation may seem self-evident, forging sustained strategic collaboration has not been without its challenges. Beyond being the two forward-leaning South China Sea claimants, both countries are traditionally viewed as among the more diplomatically active countries within Southeast Asia and are key sources of economic opportunity even today in areas like semiconductors or critical minerals1. Yet this has not always translated into strategic cooperation. Trade is rising but is still quite small at less than $10 billion, even though there are important economic links in areas like rice2. Geopolitically, while alignment was on the up in the early 2010s under Philippine President Benigno Aquino III culminating in the 2015 strategic partnership amid China’s growing assertiveness, the rule of his successor Rodrigo Duterte (2016-2022) had an initial anti-U.S. bent and complicated work on areas such as inter-claimant South China Sea cooperation3. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has attempted to revive greater alignment with Manila’s sole strategic partner in ASEAN since taking office in May 20224.
Select Recent Strategic Developments in Philippines-Vietnam Cooperation (2015-)
The visit and new pacts come after months of discussion by the two sides on how to advance cooperation amid evolving strategic dynamics. Some of the outlines of expected deliverables had already begun to take shape when both sides held a key in-person bilateral cooperation engagement midway through last year — the first since 20195. Marcos’ Vietnam state visit in January 2024 was also already publicized by early August 2023. Since then, as we have been noting on ASEAN Wonk, Vietnam has hosted both U.S. and Chinese leaders in September and December respectively, highlighting both its calibration of ties between the two powers as well as geoeconomic cooperation in areas like semiconductors and infrastructure6. Meanwhile, Manila has kicked off closer U.S.-Philippine alliance cooperation in areas like joint drills and looked for more economic opportunities in areas like nuclear energy and critical minerals7. Marcos has also been opining on the logic of using more Philippine-Vietnam alignment as a springboard for minilateral collaboration on the South China Sea as Beijing continues its multilateral foot-dragging.
Significance
Viewed from this lens, Marcos’ state visit from January 29-30 constitutes a significant development in the Philippines-Vietnam relationship. Process-wise, as Marcos himself said during his remarks to Vietnam’s Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh, the visit is the culmination of much diplomatic work behind the scenes “that maybe the others do not realize.”8 Substantively, while much attention was paid to new (and future potential) defense pacts and their links to the South China Sea, both sides also conveyed a sense that leader-level engagement could help catalyze geoeconomic cooperation and thus accelerate comprehensive consolidation of the relationship beyond just countering China, such as on trade or electric vehicles9. On Vietnam’s end, that plays into how it calibrates its wider partnership hierarchy while living right next door to Beijing. That said, some of that aspiration does conceal private acknowledgment by officials of lingering challenges and understate healthy sectoral competition underway between the two Southeast Asian states.
The new pacts signed during Marcos’s visit provide a sense of where the two sides have made inroads and the challenges that lie ahead as they try to strengthen their cooperation in the coming months. Both countries announced several agreements and streams of work that could play a broader role in the future of their ties (see table below with some key initiatives of focus with accompanying details)10.