ASEAN-Australia Special Summit Looms Amid New Philippines Deals

Plus largest military drills; diplomatic competition; new AI Pact; looming trade deal; future chip plans; counting scam network transactions and much more.

Greetings to new readers and welcome all to the latest edition of the weekly ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief! If you haven’t already, you can upgrade to a paid subscription for $5 a month/$50 a year below to receive full posts by inserting your email address and then selecting an annual or monthly option. You can visit this page for more on pricing for institutions, groups as well as discounts.

For this iteration of ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief, we are looking at:

• Assessing the geopolitical and geoeconomic significance of Australia’s upcoming special summit with ASEAN after new deals with the Philippines;

• Mapping of regional developments including largest military drills and mainland-maritime diplomacy in the spotlight;

• Charting evolving geopolitical, geoeconomic and security trends such as on boosting the maritime order; the evolving regional semiconductor landscape and new, cross-continental free trade pacts;

• Tracking and analysis of industry developments and quantitative indicators including a new AI pact; a looming trade deal; counting scam network transactions & more;

• And much more! ICYMI, check out our review of a recent book that provides helpful insights in mapping out South China Sea futures amid continued China-Philippine tensions.

This Week’s WonkCount: 2,055 words (10 minutes)

Southeast Asia’s Largest Military Drills Kick Off; Mainland-Maritime Diplomacy in the Spotlight & More

Sources: U.S. Indo-Pacific Command; PCO Philippines; X/MINDEF; The Laotian Times; Cambodia Foreign Ministry

Diplomatic Competition; Boosting the Maritime Order & Military Conscription By the Numbers

• “China is ahead in Africa, East Asia, and the Pacific, while the United States has the edge in the Americas, Europe, and South Asia,” according to findings from the newly-released version of the Lowy Institute’s Global Diplomacy Index. The United States lags China 271 to 274 in terms of diplomatic posts, a record Beijing built up over the years prior. The highest-ranked Southeast Asian country on the index is Indonesia at 23rd, with around 130 overseas missions abroad mostly focused around Asia, Europe and the Middle East. This is followed by Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam (link).

Number of US and China Diplomatic Posts Over Time

• “[T]he economic and infrastructure priorities of Southeast Asian states are crucial for understanding the limits and possibilities of maritime cooperation,” notes a new report published by La Trobe University on how to enhance the maritime order with a focus on Australia-Japan-UK collaboration. The report highlights opportunities for cooperation with Southeast Asia, including support for critical maritime infrastructure such as port facilities, surveillance systems and communication networks. It also notes challenges for partner countries as well as for Southeast Asian states, be it inter-state coordination, the lack of maritime investment or the complex nature of IUU fishing (link).

Source: U.S. Navy Photo

• “It appears that the objective is to restore the military’s strength to pre-coup levels within the first year of recruitment,” argues a new publication by ISP-Myanmar on the military’s conscription law. The publication notes a major and rising recruitment gap dating back decades, including a net average recruitment rate of around 7,200 recruits per year from 2000-2020 as opposed to the 96,000 recruits per year ideally targeted. The analysis suggests that an additional 100,000 recruits would ideally be needed for the military to restore its pre-coup strength in terms of personnel, and that an additional 400,000 would be required if the military looks to restore a personnel level that begins to approximate its original goals (link).

Rough Estimate of Yearly Recruits and Recruitment Gap

Source: ISP-Myanmar

ASEAN-Australia Special Summit Looms Amid New Philippines Deals

Source: ASEAN Secretariat

What’s Behind It

• Australia and the Philippines signed new security agreements to further build out their recently upgraded strategic partnership during President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s visit there February 28-29¹. The development was just the latest sign of Manila’s active security networking across the Indo-Pacific amid tensions with China in the South China Sea, which remains a key regional flashpoint in 2024.² Manifestations of this covered on ASEAN Wonk include a recent Vietnam trip; Taiwan sniping; new military pacts; South China Sea joint patrols including with Australia; China map protests; glacial ASEAN talks; U.S.-China rivalry as well as minilateral and bilateral dynamics.

• The new pacts come amid an active few months for Australia in engaging Southeast Asia ahead of the ASEAN-Australia special summit March 4-6, which diplomats familiar with the planning say ought to be viewed as a culmination of Canberra’s ongoing efforts rather than as a single datapoint. Australia heads into the summit with decent momentum in its ties with the region under Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. This has occurred with the support of his team including Foreign Minister Penny Wong who has clocked significant miles across the region (see graphic below for some key recent developments). As we’ve noted on ASEAN Wonk since early last year, Australia has been rolling out initiatives to signal its prioritization of Southeast Asia ahead of the summit to mark 50 years of dialogue relations, which comes just months after another ASEAN commemorative summit hosted by Japan in December which we assessed here. Notable steps in 2023 included the release of a new economic strategy and elevating ties with Brunei and the Philippines (after others in 2022 such as a new defense agreement with East Timor).

Select Recent ASEAN-Australia-Related Developments

Source: Government statements; graphic by ASEAN Wonk Team

• That said, this has not been without its challenges. Australia has been among the more active major powers in Southeast Asia — it was among the first to elevate its ties with ASEAN to a comprehensive strategic partnership in 2021 (the same year as China and before the United States); and the 50 year commemorative summit dates back to Canberra’s status as ASEAN’s first dialogue partner. Nonetheless, Australia’s ongoing diplomacy in the region has had to navigate the crises in Myanmar and Gaza; reduce initial regional anxieties in some circles regarding AUKUS; manage rights issues in cases like Cambodia; and grapple with complexities and fallout from China’s growing influence in countries such as East Timor. The Philippines has also not been immune from this. Indeed, the controversy over an Australian senator who protested on human rights during Marcos’ address to parliament — the first ever such speech for a Philippine president — was a reminder of how concerns can quickly fill the headlines³.

Why It Matters

• The new pacts come ahead of the ASEAN-Australia Special Summit set for next week, which will spotlight a wider mix of opportunities and challenges in as well as across Canberra’s regional relationships. The Australian government’s planning ahead of the summit, as well as evolving regional and global dynamics, point to likely focus areas and major issues at play amid the summit engagements in addition to any bilaterals and sideline events and discussions (see table snapshot below on all three aspects in focus at the ASEAN-Australia summit)⁴.