New Japan Philippines Military Pact Talk Puts Indo-Pacific Defense Alignment Under Marcos in Focus
Plus new Gaza aid; fresh sanctions; global geopolitical risks; a new green strategic pact and much, much more.
Greetings to new readers and welcome all to this edition of the weekly ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief! For this iteration, we are looking at:
Assessing the significance of renewed talk of a Japan-Philippines defense agreement and its impacts on the Indo-Pacific region;
Mapping of regional developments including new Gaza humanitarian aid dispatch; new Myanmar restrictions and more;
Charting evolving trends such as on global geopolitical risks; Mekong sectoral prospects and related issues;
Tracking and analysis of industry developments including a new green strategic pact; updates on the just energy transition partnership and more;
And much more!
WonkCount: 1,519 words (~7 minutes reading time)
New Gaza Aid Dispatch; Fresh Round of Myanmar Sanctions; Malaysia-Singapore Summit Outcomes & More
New Japan Philippines Military Pact Talk Puts Indo-Pacific Defense Alignment Under Marcos in Focus
Renewed talk of a new Japan-Philippines defense access agreement spotlights the Manila’s role in broader bilateral and minilateral security networking underway under the administration of Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and amid China’s continued assertiveness.
What’s Behind It
Japan and the Philippines reinforced efforts to conclude a reciprocal access agreement during the visit of Prime Minister Kishida to the Philippines. "A further decision was made to start negotiations on a reciprocal access agreement and we agreed to further strengthen trilateral cooperation," Kishida told a joint news conference, with Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. also noting the logic of such a pact1. Both sides also signed and exchanged notes for an Official Security Assistance (OSA) grant providing the Philippines with coastal radar systems — noted as the first OSA program to be implemented after its establishment and issuance of a framework in April2. Kishida’s visit was part of a two-nation visit that also included Malaysia ahead of a summit Tokyo is hosting next month to commemorate the 50th anniversary of ASEAN-Japan friendship3.
While discussions about new defense pacts date back years, this is receiving renewed attention due to what one official characterized to ASEAN Wonk as “unprecedented momentum” in ties. Marcos has sought to firmly place Manila back as a node of regional security cooperation after his predecessor Rodrigo Duterte disrupted momentum built up under President Benigno Aquino III, even though some aspects of Japan-Philippines defence ties had still advanced. Aquino had in fact previously publicly floated a visiting forces agreement (VFA) with Japan during his tenure, an arrangement that Manila has only had with Australia and the United States4. Under Marcos, officials note that beyond headlines showcasing aspects of cooperation every few months, close cooperation bilaterally as well as with other like-minded countries is in fact occurring at an unprecedented level with developments “every few weeks” (see a snapshot of select, month-to-month publicized developments below)5.
Select Japan-Philippines Security and Foreign Policy Related Developments in 2023
Why It Matters
An agreement of this kind would elevate Japan’s status within the Philippines’ list of closest security partners and enable wider Indo-Pacific defense networking between Manila and countries such as Australia and the United States. While this could extend to flashpoints like Taiwan, this would also facilitate cooperation beneficial to Manila on its interests closer to home such as countering China’s maritime assertiveness in the South China Sea and humanitarian assistance and disaster relief as one of the world’s most disaster-prone countries.
This also builds momentum for Tokyo’s Southeast Asia outreach heading into the upcoming summit. Both sides have already been working on the multilateral foundations of the engagement, including aligning approaches to the Indo-Pacific and establishing a comprehensive strategic partnership — which ASEAN already has with Australia, China, India and the United States6. But kickstarting OSA with the Philippines spotlights a key bilateral partner that Japan is engaging with on the defense side, along with other countries such as Vietnam.
Where It’s Headed
All eyes will be on when both sides are able to conclude the defense deal along with progress in other aspects of the security realm. Marcos has prioritized deepening foreign and security ties with key countries like Japan and the United States as part of his foreign policy thus far. But he also has to calibrate this with the reality that his main challenges at home are domestic-centered and economic-focused, and being seen as overly aggressive against China may also open him up to criticism by opponents counseling a more moderate approach. This partly explains why the president’s office played up the economic agreements reached in areas like tourism and infrastructure alongside the defense-related items that dominated the headlines7.
Beyond this, it will also be important to track both sides’ involvement in wider minilateral security networking. The focus thus far has been on cooperation shaping up across the U.S.-Japan-Philippines trilateral, the U.S.-Australia-Philippines trilateral and even among the four countries. Yet China’s coercive actions against the Philippines in the South China Sea have also seen wider and looser coalitions forming that could also form a part of an evolving Indo-Pacific security networking landscape. This could also informally feed into individual functional initiatives shaping up in other minilaterals such as the Quad.
Coming Global Trade War Fears; Weighing Mekong Risks; Biden’s Evolving Indo-Pacific Economic Agenda
“A green technology subsidy race…[could become] a global trade war” implicating several Southeast Asian countries which are sources of critical minerals, warns The Economist’s risk outlook for 2024. The outlook has this as the second of ten scenarios, judging this particular one to be “moderate probability; high impact.” Other scenarios include a global recession and a move by China to annex Taiwan (link).
Top Countries for Critical Mineral Mining and Processing
“As the threats posed to the Mekong’s unique river system by continued hydropower development become more prominent, it is vital that Lower Mekong governments, foreign investors and businesses alike expand their understanding of hydropower-related risks and how they are distributed geographically and temporarily,” notes a new report released by the World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF). The report looks at five key supply chains — energy, fisheries, rice, sand and construction, and textiles and electronics — across five types of risks (physical, market, financial, regulatory and reputational). It also assesses how these risks play out quantitatively and qualitatively within the sectors and across countries (see graphic below) (link).
Overall Supply Chain Hydropower Risk for Select Countries
“[I]t’s an especially promising moment for the U.S.-Vietnam economic relationship,” U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen noted in a key speech on the Biden administration’s Indo-Pacific economic approach ahead of Washington’s upcoming hosting of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum. Other Southeast Asia-related points in the speech included mention of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, the significance of ASEAN and the new mechanism with Singapore on critical and emerging technologies (link).
New Green Strategic Pact; Just Energy Transition Partnership Update; Cross-Border Payment Inroads in the Spotlight & More
