Cambodia China-Backed Funan Techo Canal Confronts Cost Challenge
Plus new Quad drill; big South China Sea first; China EV boost; measuring trade anxiety; coup tax; defense milestone; chip hub hype and much, much more.
Greetings to new readers and welcome all to the latest edition of the weekly ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief! If you haven’t already, you can upgrade to a paid subscription for $5 a month/$50 a year below to receive full posts by inserting your email address and then selecting an annual or monthly option. You can visit this page for more on pricing for institutions, groups as well as discounts. For current paid subscribers, please make sure you’re hitting the “view entire message” prompt if it comes up at the end of a post to see the full version.
For this iteration of ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief, we are looking at:
Assessing the geopolitical and geoeconomic significance of the cost challenge in Cambodia’s China-backed Funan Techo canal after its August 5 groundbreaking;
Mapping of regional developments, such as new Quad drill; big defense milestone and mapping maritime spheres;
Charting evolving geopolitical, geoeconomic and security trends such as new South China Sea first; new chip hub and China EV boost;
Tracking and analysis of industry developments and quantitative indicators including measuring trade anxiety; coming energy guardrails; coup tax; currency wars and more;
And much more! ICYMI, check out the inaugural episode of our new ASEAN Wonk Podcast, launched on ASEAN Day and addressing topics including ASEAN centrality, US-China competition and minilateralism;
This Week’s WonkCount: 2,128 words (~10 minutes)
New Quad Drill; Big Defense First; Canal Inroads & More
Mapping Maritime Spheres; Cross-Regional Connectivity & Coming Disinformation Fight Contours
“Available PRC writings suggest a tentative prioritization of maritime spheres,” argues a new commentary published by the National Bureau of Asian Research. The commentary posits the following key layers in terms of China’s maritime vision: (1) near seas and first island chain, (2) waters out to the second island chain, (3) the western Pacific out to a third island chain bisecting Hawaii and the northern Indian Ocean, (4) the Atlantic Ocean, Mediterranean Sea, and Arctic Ocean, and (5) beyond. It also plots the PLA Navy’s current bases as well as potential future first-priority and second-priority ports that might conceivably offer special access and support (link).
Map of China Prioritized Maritime Spaces, Including Overseas Bases and Priority Ports
“[T]here is a need for a clear roadmap with targeted recommendations…that build on the shared priorities and comparative strengths of both groups,” notes a new report on synergy between ASEAN and the Bay of Bengal grouping BIMSTEC released by the Observer Research Foundation. The report sets out several sectors for developing greater ASEAN-BIMSTEC synergy including connectivity, digital economy, blue economy as well as climate (link).
“[M]ore trust among them could also strengthen ASEAN’s resilience against cyber or information threats that aim to undermine the grouping’s cohesion,” notes a commentary from the RSIS think tank in Singapore on deepfakes and AI-generated disinformation. The piece goes through several cases in regional states and suggests ways of enhancing digital defense cooperation in Southeast Asia and within ASEAN as an institution (link).
Cambodia China-Backed Funan Techo Canal Confronts Cost Challenge
What’s Behind It
Cambodia Prime Minister Hun Manet’s suggestion that a controversial $1.7 billion, 180-kilometer China-backed Funan Techo canal would be built at all costs at an August 5 groundbreaking ceremony feeds into concerns about its future trajectory1. At we noted previously on ASEAN Wonk, the concerns around the canal surround not just how much the canal costs, but also how costs are being calculated. Specifically, some have suggested the Cambodian government is too narrowly calculating the canal costs, particularly when it comes to regional environmental and geopolitical risks. The question of an “at all cost” approach also comes as other countries in the region have struggled with cost issues in different infrastructure projects. Indonesia reneged on an initial pledge not to dip into funds in its China-built high-speed rail project completed last year2. Laos’ state-run electricity corporation had to enter into a power grid sharing agreement with a Chinese state-run firm in 20213. The country’s debt woes have continued.
Select Recent Significant Developments Related to the Funan Techo Canal Project
Despite the narrow focus around China, the canal is also being constructed as Cambodia seeks inroads in its wider foreign policy under Hun Manet. To be sure, Cambodia’s longtime leader Hun Sen continues to publicly assert his already recognized residual influence under his son’s reign. But a period of testing has commenced in Cambodia’s other relationships. Some instances have been publicized, with a case in point being U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin’s visit to Cambodia4. We saw another case this week when Japan’s defense minister visited Cambodia5. Publicized items of discussion included the under-noticed floated storyline of Japan participating in Cambodia-Laos-Vietnam (CLV) trilateral exercises6. The CLV mechanism is an example of Mekong minilateral cooperation without China’s participation. Cambodia’s trajectory also has wider relevance for the region. As Amitav Acharya noted at the end of our inaugural ASEAN Wonk podcast this week, Cambodia is an interesting case of the extent to which we may see intra-regime change factor into China policy shifts, rather than inter-regime change in case of the Philippines with the transition from Duterte to Marcos.
Why It Matters
A close analysis of the government’s messaging indicates some of the key contours to watch in the canal’s future trajectory (see originally generated ASEAN Wonk table below on what to watch on specific areas and outcomes. Paying subscribers can also read on for more on what to expect and future implications in the rest of the “Why It Matters” and “Where It’s Headed” sections, along with remaining paid-only sections of the newsletter as usual).
Key Concerns, Issues, and Responses to Watch on The Funan Techo Canal Project
