Review: Southeast Asia and the Indo-Pacific Outlook Challenge
The expansion of the Indo-Pacific construct belies diverse views in Southeast Asia and within ASEAN about its current trajectory and future outlook.
A new book adds attention to evolving perspectives in Southeast Asia on the Indo-Pacific construct and its wider regional implications.
WonkCount: 1,764 words (~9 minutes)
Review: Southeast Asia and the Indo-Pacific Outlook Challenge
Context
Though few would deny the reality of growing confluence of the Indian and Pacific Oceans as articulated by late Japanese premier Shinzo Abe, there is still a diversity of perspectives within Southeast Asia on the Indo-Pacific concept and how to engage with it1. Members of the U.S. alliance network like the Philippines have found it easier to plug into the concept comprehensively, including security networking amid minilaterals like AUKUS that can stoke sensitivities in some quarters. More non-aligned, active countries like Indonesia have helped develop a wider ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific (AOIP) initially disclosed during Thailand’s chairmanship back in 2019, which integrates functional priorities like sustainability or maritime issues2. Southeast Asian states such as Malaysia or Vietnam are engaging with the Indo-Pacific strategies of individual powers like Australia, India, Japan and the United States including in sectors detailed in the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, even though this alignment may not reach the levels of formal Quad engagement and is more difficult to achieve for smaller, less-developed countries closer to China like Cambodia and Laos (see snapshot graphic below)3. China also continues to try to shape Indo-Pacific responses by painting the concept as an exclusive effort to contain it, even as aspects of Beijing’s own behavior increase the odds of self-containment.
Select Recent Indo-Pacific-Related Developments and Southeast Asian States
A new volume edited by scholars Indu Saxena and Stephen Nagy titled Southeast Asia and the Indo-Pacific Construct adds additional attention to regional perspectives on the subject4. In doing so, it contributes to a growing list of publications focused on Southeast Asia’s interactions with a wider array of Indo-Pacific states, including ones we have analyzed here on ASEAN Wonk. The book has nine main chapters and runs 190 pages5.
Analysis
The book reinforces the importance of acknowledging context, complexity and contingency in Southeast Asia’s approach to major powers beyond the bipolar prism of U.S.-China competition. As Yoichiro Sato notes in a brief but rich foreword, while Southeast Asia has long been integrated into Indo-Pacific interactions via trade routes or major power conquests, recent trends such as the souring of U.S.-China ties and the rise of India have led states to revise strategies to maintain the Indo-Pacific in their own diverse “preferred images” — be it the free and open Indo-Pacific advanced by Tokyo and Washington; the AOIP within ASEAN as a grouping; or diverse outlooks in individual Southeast Asian countries6. Some of the book’s country chapters paint rich and granular portraits of these “diverse preferred images” over time which try to transcend caricatures and platitudes. These include shifts within the administration of former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte after the failure of initial China appeasement which provided the context for the current administration of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. as well as the varying interpretations of the “free” and “active” components of Indonesia’s long-held free and active foreign policy that continue to be at play as incoming president Prabowo Subianto prepares to take office7.
The book’s perspectives also further spotlight the diverse conversation around Southeast Asia and the Indo-Pacific. The country chapters in particular illustrate that far from universally making clear choices or strategically hedging their bets, Southeast Asian countries have employed a range of approaches, partners and interactions to manage intensifying major power competition8 (see table below for a summary of key countries, approaches and major variables to watch, followed by the rest of the “Analysis section” and an “Implications” section looking at how these dynamics may play out in the future as well).