IPEF Makes New 2024 Inroads Amid Old Uncertainties
Plus new China canal fears; triple Southeast Asia summits; growing Mekong counterscam scrutiny; trade restriction backlash; regional hub wars and much more.
Greetings to new readers and welcome all to the latest edition of the weekly ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief! If you haven’t already, you can upgrade to a paid subscription for $5 a month/$50 a year below to receive full posts by inserting your email address and then selecting an annual or monthly option. You can visit this page for more on pricing for institutions, groups as well as discounts. For current paid subscribers, please make sure you’re hitting the “view entire message” prompt if it comes up at the end of a post to see the full version.
For this iteration of ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief, we are looking at:
Assessing the geopolitical and geoeconomic significance of the recent inroads announced at the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) ministerial, including upcoming events in Singapore;
Mapping of regional developments, such the triple Southeast Asia summits in Berlin and new China canal fears;
Charting evolving geopolitical, geoeconomic and security trends such as measuring competitiveness; growing counterscam scrutiny and population warfighting assessments;
Tracking and analysis of industry developments and quantitative indicators including new crypto scrutiny; growing trade restrictions backlash; regional hub wars & more;
And much more! ICYMI, check out our post earlier this week on alliance geoeconomics as they apply to the U.S.-Philippine relationship.
This Week’s WonkCount: 1,816 words (~9 minutes)
Triple Summit Spotlight; New China Mekong Canal Fears & More
The Competition Paradigm; Managing Hidden Emissions Challenges & Complex “Salesman” Portrait
“[A]ll processes of aligning to a given competitive paradigm share two common elements…leadership of the era’s economic, technological and human sources of value creation…[and] a valid social contract appropriate in the era,” notes a new report from the RAND Corporation that analyzes the sources of competitive advantage among nations more broadly amid the current phase of U.S.-China competition, with a focus on effective governance. The study’s first phase had identified seven major characteristics in this regard: 1) national ambition and willpower; 2) unified national identity; 3) shared opportunity; 4) an active state; 5) effective institutions; 6) a learning and adapting mindset; and 7) diversity and pluralism (link).
Select Elements Addressed Within a Competitive Paradigm
“Indonesia’s…emissions are up to seven times higher than currently reported based on independent estimates using satellite and mine-level data,” notes a report by Ember which examines coal mining methane (CMM) emissions. The report recommends a series of measures across areas including monitoring, transparency and mitigation (link).
Previous Estimates of Indonesia’s Coal Mining Methane Emissions
“From being the CEO of a company to the CEO of a country, there are many more stakeholders,” Thai Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin notes in a cover interview with TIME magazine that delves into the mix of opportunities and challenges he faces amid the tension between a regime looking to open the country for business and parts of the country that feel “shortchanged” by the sidelining of progressive forces after a strong election showing (link).
IPEF Makes New 2024 Inroads Amid Old Uncertainties
What’s Behind It
The ministers of countries part of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) met virtually and announced steps to make progress despite uncertainties around its sustainability and the role of the United States amid broader evolving geopolitical and geoeconomic realities after the November 2024 election1. IPEF currently comprises 14 countries, with seven from Southeast Asia (the total current membership includes Australia, Brunei, Fiji, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, New Zealand, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Thailand, the United States and Vietnam)2.
Select Key Recent Developments in the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF)
The development is just the latest in a series of efforts by officials to move ahead with parts of the agreement amid challenges (see above timeline graphic). The virtual meeting, held March 14, came just weeks after the IPEF supply chain agreement entered into force February 24 and amid U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo’s swing through Southeast Asia including a first-ever trade and investment mission to the Philippines3. This provided officials with the opportunity to discuss next steps on that as well as release texts on the other two of four pillars — the fair economy and clean economy pillars. U.S. officials in particular know they need to continue to institutionalize progress and deliver tangible benefits to partners to sustain whatever IPEF momentum they can, even if little progress is expected on the critical trade pillar which stalled last November given that it is a U.S. election year, as we have noted previously on ASEAN Wonk.4
Why It Matters
The IPEF countries announced tangible steps to move ahead with cooperation across the three major pillars and demonstrate its value even though it is not a full free trade agreement (see table below for a summary of notable announcements, along with a more detailed assessment about next steps to watch in the coming months). Announcements touched areas such as initial funding; capacity-building; new working group areas; and text publication. Additionally, IPEF members also disclosed the timing and specificity around future ministerials and related engagements5.
Major New IPEF Announcements and Relevant Details
