ASEAN Future Forum Spotlights Vietnam Regional Diplomacy
Plus deepfake fallout; sub launch; new critical minerals pact chatter; investment attraction wars; biggest chip facility talk; coming AI units and much more.
Greetings to new readers and welcome all to the latest edition of the weekly ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief! If you haven’t already, you can upgrade to a paid subscription for $5 a month/$50 a year below to receive full posts by inserting your email address and then selecting an annual or monthly option. You can visit this page for more on pricing for institutions, groups as well as discounts. For current paid subscribers, please make sure you’re hitting the “view entire message” prompt if it comes up at the end of a post to see the full version.
For this iteration of ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief, we are looking at:
Assessing the geopolitical and geoeconomic significance of the launch of the new ASEAN Future Forum in Vietnam, including the wider regional outlook;
Mapping of regional developments, such as a deepfake fallout; a new submarine launch as well as warring canal narratives;
Charting evolving geopolitical, geoeconomic and security trends such as fresh critical minerals pact chatter; assessing investment attraction wars and the outlook for global maritime hubs;
Tracking and analysis of industry developments and quantitative indicators including biggest chip facility talk; coming AI units; new high-speed rail hype and more;
And much more! ICYMI, check out our post earlier this week on the wider regional significance of a new India defense delivery to the Philippines and what that might mean for New Delhi’s security role. Thank you also to BFM 89.9 and Vietnam Weekly for having us on for engaging conversations on minilateralism and Vietnam’s approach to major powers, and to outlets including Foreign Policy magazine for citing our work. You can check out links to these here, here and here.
This Week’s WonkCount: 2,174 words (~10 minutes)
Deepfake Fallout; New Sub Launch; Warring Canal Narratives & More
Geoeconomic Fracturing; New Basing Fears & Measuring Border Trade
“Focusing on the past two years only, the broader Asian region, encompassing…Southeast Asia and South Asia, has also notably benefited from redistribution mechanisms. This trend suggests a potential diversion effect, which had not yet emerged in earlier periods,” notes a new United Nations report analyzing global economic fracturing and shifting investment patterns. Though the report does acknowledge some investment diversion to Southeast Asia, it also cautions that the shift to regional value chains relying on more integrated neighboring markets is likely to be a “long-term process,” with metrics like regional FDI still remaining relatively stable (at around 15 percent) despite decades of ASEAN economic cooperation (link).
Relative Gains and Losses From the Reallocation of Outward Cross-Border Greenfield Projects
“The People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) ships never left Ream, and have now maintained a consistent presence for over four months,” notes a new CSIS update utilizing commercial satellite imagery to analyze Chinese naval presence at Cambodia’s Ream Naval Base. The analysis concludes that two Chinese navy ships have been the only two ships to dock at a new pier built at the base with Chinese funding thus far, raising questions about the extent to which Beijing may be gradually establishing extended and exclusive access as previously noted by the United States (link).
Chinese Ships Docked at Cambodia’s Ream Naval Base
“In the past three years since the coup, the combined daily trade value at 17 legally-operated border stations reached over $23 million,” observes a new report by ISP Myanmar. The report was published earlier this month in Burmese, and as such does not fully take into account changes that have occurred since then in terms of the balance of power between rebel and junta forces. Nonetheless, it provides a snapshot into the level of economic activity in key areas in Myanmar’s borders with Bangladesh, China, India and Thailand (link).
Trade Value of Key Myanmar Border Stations
ASEAN Future Forum Spotlights Vietnam Regional Diplomacy
What’s Behind It
Vietnam launched a new Track 1.5 ASEAN Future Forum (AFF) on April 23 which it said was intended to shape conversations about ASEAN’s future amid a challenging geopolitical context we have noted on ASEAN Wonk.1 The engagement featured a mix of in-person and virtual remarks by key leaders and officials, including the ASEAN Secretary General and premiers of Vietnam, Laos and Malaysia, the latter two of which are ASEAN chairs in 2024 and 2025 respectively after Indonesia last year. An official count was that nearly 500 people had attended, with a theme of fast and sustainable growth in a people-centered community2. The event and its focus had already been publicly outlined by Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh at the ASEAN Summit last September (see timeline snapshot below on Vietnam’s recent institutional engagements more generally)3.
Select Key Developments in Vietnam’s Recent Institutional Engagement
The AFF spotlights an intra-ASEAN effort at institutional innovation as well as Vietnam’s active diplomacy. There are no shortage of dialogues in Southeast Asia, including the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore or the Asia-Pacific Roundtable in Malaysia. But to date, these have been concentrated in maritime Southeast Asia where the majority of ASEAN’s founding members were based4. Their focus has also been broader rather than just on ASEAN itself, with the official multilateral agenda usually shaped primarily by the annually rotating chairmanship system (when Chinh announced the forum, he said it complemented ASEAN mechanisms5). One source familiar with the AFF’s evolution noted to ASEAN Wonk that while complexities existed around aspects such as scheduling and socialization, the combination of multidimensionality, distinctiveness and novelty limited comparisons of this first AFF to other more specialized and established fora. The AFF also highlights Vietnam’s active diplomacy. To be sure, Vietnam has long played an important role in some past evolutions in the regional architecture, with the annualization of the ASEAN Defense Ministers’ Meeting-Plus being a case in point. But it is also true that COVID-19 disrupted Vietnam’s plans just as it held both the ASEAN chair and a non-permanent seat at the United Nations back in 20206. Other ideas had also been taking shape, including a new and regular hosted defense exhibition and convene more events with groups like the World Economic Forum7.
Why It Matters
The AFF highlights the ongoing effort to shape ASEAN’s future despite ongoing challenges. Vietnam’s premier did not mince words in his speech, offering specific ways to enhance ASEAN after noting that the grouping was “never faced with such a multitude of challenges,” including fierce strategic competition, glaring intra-ASEAN development gaps and “not proven to be substantive” in some areas despite acknowledged centrality8. As blunt as those remarks seem, aspects of these concerns were expressed by other leaders at the AFF including Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim.9 Even as Vietnam tries to shape the ASEAN conversation, policymakers are also aware of their own challenges in other domains including in a geopolitically contested Mekong subregion. Indeed, we saw manifestations this week as Hanoi convened the AFF, quite apart from the resignation of the head of Vietnam’s parliament which dominated some of the headlines on the domestic side. These included Vietnam-Cambodia tensions over the Funan Techo canal, China’s grip on Cambodia on display in Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s visit and intraregional divisions over Myanmar’s civil war despite the junta’s weakening position10.
The AFF’s sessions and speeches also highlighted areas of current and future focus within ASEAN and among key Southeast Asia and Indo-Pacific states (see the table below on new future measures and major datapoints, followed by more insights on “Why It Matters” and “Where It’s Headed.” Paid subscribers can read on as usual to other weekly newsletter sections thereafter, including a dashboard of industry developments and analysis of notable quantitative metrics).
New Future Measures and Major Datapoints at the ASEAN Future Forum
