What Anwar China Rhetoric Says About Malaysia Foreign Policy
Plus decoupling futures; biggest defense budget talk; new mineral restrictions; fresh gambling sector scrutiny; clean energy investment shortfalls & much more.
Greetings to new readers and welcome all to the latest edition of the weekly ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief! If you haven’t already, you can upgrade to a paid subscription for $5 a month/$50 a year below to receive full posts by inserting your email address and then selecting an annual or monthly option. You can visit this page for more on pricing for institutions, groups as well as discounts. For current paid subscribers, please make sure you’re hitting the “view entire message” prompt if it comes up at the end of a post to see the full version.
For this iteration of ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief, we are looking at:
Assessing the geopolitical significance of Malaysia’s recent rhetoric on China and its broader foreign policy outlook;
Mapping of regional developments including ASEAN’s 2024 defense agenda and South China Sea tensions;
Charting evolving geopolitical, geoeconomic and security trends such as on future U.S.-China decoupling scenarios; mineral export ban restrictions and the evolving South China Sea military balance;
Tracking and analysis of industry developments and quantitative indicators including new biggest defense budget talk; fresh gambling sector scrutiny and new carbon capture cooperation;
And much more! ICYMI, check out our granular review of the outcomes of the ASEAN-Australia special summit, including inroads made with individual Southeast Asian states across key sectors. We also joined the China Global South Project podcast for a discussion on geopolitics in Southeast Asia and shared views on Malaysia’s foreign policy with the South China Morning Post.
This Week’s WonkCount: 1,771 words (~9 minutes)
South China Sea Tensions; ASEAN’s 2024 Defense Agenda & More
US-China Decoupling Scenarios; Counting Military Drills & the Future of ASEAN-Australia Relations
“The most common strategy among interviewed companies was the combination of diversifying production and supply chains to other countries, together with localizing the operations in China (often called ‘China for China’),” notes a new report on business strategies amid decoupling fears published by the East Asian Institute of the National University of Singapore, Leiden Asia Center and China Knowledge Network. The report includes interview insights from firms in Japan, Germany, the Netherlands and Singapore (link).
Select Decoupling Management Business Strategies Ranked in Order of Relative Importance
“The US remains the partner of choice for Southeast Asia when it comes to staging joint military exercises,“ notes new data released by the Lowy Institute on select drills undertaken by Southeast Asian states bilaterally and multilaterally from 2021 to 2023. According to the data, the United States participated in around 33 percent of the 525 recorded joint military exercises undertaken by Southeast Asian states, either at bilateral or multilateral level. If this includes Australia and Japan, Washington and its allies have participated in more than 60 percent of exercises involving Southeast Asian states (link).
Joint Military Exercises Involving Southeast Asian States And Select Key Major Powers, 2021-2023
“ASEAN stakeholders anticipate that the Indian Ocean and Pacific Island regions will remain important parts of this conversation, with Australia therefore usefully positioned as a key partner,” argues a new report on Australia-ASEAN relations launched ahead of the recently concluded summit by the University of Tasmania, ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, CSIS Jakarta and the Asian Vision Institute (link).
What Anwar China Rhetoric Says About Malaysia Foreign Policy
What’s Behind It
Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has been in the headlines for his recent comments on China. Anwar insisted that Malaysians “do not have a problem with China” and that though Malaysia remains a friend to Western countries such as the United States and Australia, these countries should not impose their issues with China on others and “preclude us from being friendly to one of our important neighbors”1. This follows other rounds of comments he has made on this subject and related ones as well2.
Select Recent Anwar Ibrahim Quotes on U.S.-China Competition and Related Geopolitical Questions
Anwar’s rhetoric is not surprising given his previous comments and Malaysia’s current position. Far from being a China apologist, Anwar recognizes that amid intensified U.S.-China competition, China’s status as Malaysia’s top trading partner and leading investor requires him to create what he himself has called “strategic space” for Malaysia to leverage ties with Beijing and boost the economy, which remains a chief vulnerability3. That, along with the challenge of advancing U.S.-Malaysia ties given Anwar’s strident stance on the Israel-Gaza war — a moral position that also has domestic political appeal — has exacerbated the perception of Malaysia’s U.S.-China balance being skewed towards Beijing. Despite this perception, as we have noted on ASEAN Wonk, Anwar will be mindful of the need to quietly address concerns about China to secure Malaysia’s interests and mitigate domestic opposition, as we saw in a public incident on the South China Sea last year4. Those domestic dynamics are critical to keep in mind given Malaysia’s revolving door of prime ministers over the past few years. On the foreign policy stage, it is also no coincidence that we have seen Malaysia continue to advance security ties with several states, with a case point being an agreement for more Japan security assistance in December.
Why It Matters
Malaysia is seen as a key voice on regional issues and it will chair ASEAN in 2025 while being led by one of Southeast Asia’s most senior statesmen. In an environment of U.S.-China competition, the distance Malaysia has attempted to create for its more hedged positions as a relatively loosely aligned middle power has at times been framed as wins for either Beijing or Washington, be it on 5G or semiconductors.5 Yet Malaysia’s positions are making even more headlines now given Anwar’s decades-long reputation as a well-connected thinker, above and beyond his time as an Islamic intellectual-turned-politician-turned-opposition leader-turned premier. There will be more scrutiny on the country’s geopolitical views as it prepares to take on the rotating chairmanship of ASEAN in 2025. Malaysia will do so as it is helmed by one of the region’s more senior statesmen — alongside others like East Timor’s Xanana Gusmao and Indonesia’s likely leader Prabowo Subianto — amid some regime transitions.
Malaysia’s approach to China, the United States and the world more generally is much better understood by looking at not just what the country says, but also what it does across a wider set of alignments (see table below for a select touchpoints in areas that reveal a more multivectored approach).
