Russia-Ukraine Summit Spotlights Uneven Southeast Asia Engagement

Plus Quad futures; quiet China maritime delivery; new supply chain group; critical mineral wealth claim; boundary pact scrutiny; fresh trade talk & much more.

Greetings to new readers and welcome all to the latest edition of the weekly ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief! If you haven’t already, you can upgrade to a paid subscription for $5 a month/$50 a year below to receive full posts by inserting your email address and then selecting an annual or monthly option. You can visit this page for more on pricing for institutions, groups as well as discounts. For current paid subscribers, please make sure you’re hitting the “view entire message” prompt if it comes up at the end of a post to see the full version.

For this iteration of ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief, we are looking at:

• Assessing the geopolitical and geoeconomic significance of the just-concluded Russia-Ukraine peace summit, including perspectives of attending and absent Southeast Asia and Indo-Pacific states;

• Mapping of regional developments, such as scrutiny on BRICS expansion; Gaza in the emergency spotlight and neighborhood diplomatic engagement;

• Charting evolving geopolitical, geoeconomic and security trends such as Quad futures; new supply chain group; and new critical mineral wealth claim;

• Tracking and analysis of industry developments and quantitative indicators including boundary pact scrutiny; fresh trade talk; big energy sale and more;

• And much more!

This Week’s WonkCount: 2,134 words (~10 minutes)

BRICS Expansion Scrutiny; Gaza Emergency Spotlight & More

Sources: Switzerland FDFA;Russia Foreign Ministry; KEMHAN Indonesia; ASEAN Secretariat; PMO Singapore

Flashpoint Management; Quad Futures & Growing Criminal Tentacles

• “Large shares in the Philippines and Thailand trust Biden’s handling of international affairs, while majorities in Australia, Malaysia and Singapore do not,” per new findings released by the Pew Research Center on U.S. approval ratings ahead of November presidential elections. Among most Southeast Asian countries, Biden receives relatively higher marks for the handling of the economy and the lowest scores for management of the conflict between Israel and Hamas. The findings also assess views on various other subjects, including perceptions of former President Donald Trump and U.S. democracy (link).

Views on How Biden is Handling International Issues (as measured by “% Who Approve of the Way U.S. President Joe Biden is Dealing With…”)

Source: Pew Research

• “Undersea cables are a promising outlet for cooperation as companies from the United States and Japan are top suppliers of subsea cables,” notes a new report co-authored by the Observer Research Foundation and East-West Center that examines the evolving role of the Quad — comprising Australia, India, Japan and the United States — and future prospects for cooperation. The report delves into the various leader-level working groups and charts out a future roadmap for cooperation in areas including critical minerals, maritime security and domain awareness as well as sustainable, transparent and fair lending and financing practices (link).

Select Completed and Ongoing Subsea Cables with Indo-Pacific Landing Points

Source: ORF and EWC report

• “[T]he study group calculates that the funds stolen by the criminal syndicates based in Mekong countries likely exceeds $43.8 billion a year — over 40 percent of the combined formal GDP of Laos, Cambodia and Myanmar,” argues a recent report on the U.S. Institute of Peace on sprawling scam networks across Southeast Asia and the world. The report hones in on the costs of the crisis and includes case studies from Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand and Singapore (link).

Global Reach of Southeast Asia’s Giant Scam Networks

Source: USIP

Russia-Ukraine Summit Spotlights Uneven Southeast Asia Engagement

Source: X/FDFA Switzerland

What’s Behind It

• Three of five attending Southeast Asian states signed on to a new joint communique on a peace framework at a Russia-Ukraine war global summit held in Switzerland June 15-16¹. East Timor, the Philippines and Singapore appeared on the initial list of countries supporting the joint communique, while Indonesia and Thailand did not (see table below on levels of representation)². The three countries that supported the communique were the same ones whose leaders Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy recently engaged in a rare foray to Southeast Asia earlier this month as observed previously on ASEAN Wonk. Of those ASEAN countries which did not attend, Cambodia has been the most vocal, with senate president and ex-premier Hun Sen suggesting the summit “will be unsuccessful” without Russia’s presence while denying influence from China³.

Select Southeast Asia and Indo-Pacific Representation Levels at Russia-Ukraine Global Peace Summit

Table by ASEAN Wonk Team

• Southeast Asia’s summit attendance record is yet another reflection of the uneven and varied engagement on the issue across the region. Zelenskyy noted he was “disappointed” leaders had yet to confirm their summit participation while in Singapore, and one of his ambassadors in the region earlier called on ASEAN states to back up their rhetorical support for international law with concrete actions⁴. But this expectation-reality gap has long been at play in Southeast Asia, from hedged statements by an embattled ASEAN to calibrated approaches by Indonesia and Vietnam cognizant of ties with Russia. The Russia-Ukraine war is also occurring amid manifold challenges that also expose varying positions across a diverse region, including the Israel-Gaza war and U.S.-China competition. Just this week alone, apart from the peace summit, various combinations of ASEAN states were also present at the BRICS engagement in Russia and a high-level Israel-Gaza war conference in Jordan⁵.

Why It Matters

• The engagement highlighted how Southeast Asian states are connecting the Russia-Ukraine war to their own interests. At the conference, Singapore — the only ASEAN state to impose unilateral sanctions on Russia — focused heavily on nuclear safety and security, noting its concern regarding military activity around the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant as a current member of the board of governors at the International Atomic Energy Agency⁶. Meanwhile, Indonesia reiterated its oft-cited position that principled stands in Ukraine “should also apply to war in Gaza,” along with the view echoed by some other countries including India that the effectiveness of peace and negotiations would be enhanced if all conflicting parties — including Russia — are involved⁷.

• The summit is just the latest in a series of datapoints that reveal diverse positions of Southeast Asian states on the Russia-Ukraine relationship (see two tables below on datapoints to watch for key Southeast Asian states as well as select summit outcomes, along with more on future prospects in the “Why It Matters and “Where It’s Headed” sections. Paid subscribers can read on to remaining sections of our weekly ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief).

Major ASEAN Country Datapoints Related to Russia-Ukraine War and Future Areas to Watch