China India South China Sea Sparring Belies New Delhi's Wider Stakes
Plus giant infrastructure gap; minilateralism in the spotlight; regional EV wars; new robotics pact; China-Southeast Asia railway connection hype and much more.
Greetings to new readers and welcome all to the latest edition of the weekly ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief! If you haven’t already, you can upgrade to a paid subscription for $5 a month/$50 a year below to receive full posts by inserting your email address and then selecting an annual or monthly option. You can visit this page for more on pricing for institutions, groups as well as discounts. For current paid subscribers, please make sure you’re hitting the “view entire message” prompt if it comes up at the end of a post to see the full version.
For this iteration of ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief, we are looking at:
Assessing the geopolitical and geoeconomic significance of recent China India South China Sea sparring;
Mapping of regional developments, such as Southeast Asia minilateral engagement and a Myanmar aid kickoff;
Charting evolving geopolitical, geoeconomic and security trends such as the giant regional infrastructure gap, Southeast Asia’s ongoing electric vehicle wars and new trade pact inroads;
Tracking and analysis of industry developments and quantitative indicators including new robotics pact; major crypto ban status; China-Southeast Asia railway connection hype and more;
And much more! ICYMI, check out our post earlier this week on a new book analyzing Vietnam’s future economic trajectory out to 2050 and its wider regional and global implications.
This Week’s WonkCount: 2,178 words (~10 minutes)
Southeast Asia Minilateralism in the Spotlight; Myanmar Aid Kickoff & More
Giant Infrastructure Gap; ASEAN’s Geoeconomic Challenges & Moving Beyond Border Management
“[T]here is a significant gap between China’s promises and its implementation…this gap amounts to more than $50 billion in unfulfilled project financing, with more than half allocated to projects that have been cancelled, downsized, or otherwise seem unlikely to proceed,” notes a new data snapshot published by the Lowy Institute. China accounts for 24 out of 34 megaprojects analyzed, with 70 percent of commitments in the energy and transport sector. At the same time, Beijing’s completion rate is also far below that of other partners (link).
Signed Infrastructure Deal Amounts vs. Money Spent by Select Key Actors in Southeast Asia, 2015-2021
“While in terms of value, ASEAN has significantly increased its trade over the past decade including with various FTA partners…[there is] no clear pattern of increase in the share of ASEAN’s trade with each other or with all FTA partners, with the exception of China, and a slight increase for South Korea,” observes a new report on the future of the ASEAN Economic Community as ASEAN develops its post-2025 agenda. The report warns that ASEAN’s pillar and sector-centric approach needs to adjust to a markedly different context resulting from an ongoing poly-crisis or “fall short” in responding to challenges (link).
Status of Key ASEAN Free Trade Agreements with Partner Countries
“Beijing can and should do more than twist arms to bring about a temporary calm,” argues a report on China’s evolving role amid Myanmar’s ongoing civil war published by the International Crisis Group. The report urges Beijing to go beyond its traditional border management approach focused on minimizing active conflict and instead aim to foster longer-term stability through avenues like promoting alternatives to illicit activity and cracking down on all forms of organized crime rather than just ones that affect China (link).
China India South China Sea Sparring Belies New Delhi's Wider Stakes
What’s Behind It
China’s concern at India’s support for the Philippines in the South China Sea dominated the headlines regarding Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar’s recent Southeast Asia trip, even though it was part of a wider three-country tour1. During the Philippines stop, Jaishankar reiterated New Delhi’s support for Manila’s efforts to uphold its sovereignty in the South China Sea amid Sino-Philippine tensions we have covered extensively here at ASEAN Wonk2. This came in the context of deepening cooperation over the past few months, including a joint statement mentioning the 2016 South China Sea arbitral award as well as a new coast guard pact3. Jaishankar’s comments also occurred as an Indian coast guard ship was on a Manila stop as part of enhancing maritime cooperation with ASEAN countries4. His three country tour lasted from March 23-27 and involved Malaysia, the Philippines and Singapore.
Select Recent Security-Related Developments in India’s Relations with Southeast Asia
The trip was just the latest development spotlighting India’s stakes in Southeast Asia as it continues to try to make inroads in ties. Though India and ASEAN did elevate their ties to the highest level of a comprehensive strategic partnership in 2022, officials on both sides recognize more can be done strategically both regionally as well as bilaterally with individual Southeast Asian states5. For instance, to take Jaishankar’s stops as cases in point within India’s broader Indo-Pacific vision, while Singapore is among India’s stronger relationships in Southeast Asia, New Delhi still does not have a formal strategic partnership with the Philippines, while the enhanced strategic partnership with Malaysia has had to recover from a previous pre-COVID-19 downturn6. Some of India’s engagements have been at play over the past few months including in the maritime domain. These include the first-ever India-ASEAN maritime exercise; developing the Australia-India-Indonesia trilateral; defense deals with the Philippines and Vietnam; and building out its multi-pillared Indo-Pacific Oceans Initiative with ASEAN states (see graphic above).
Why It Matters
Despite the focus on the South China Sea, the trip highlighted the broader question of how India may look to make inroads in some of its key bilateral relationships through the rest of 2024 as part of its so-called Act East Policy (see the table below on areas of note and what will be key to watch in the coming months, followed by more insights on “Why It Matters” and “Where It’s Headed”).
Notable Areas and Follow-Up Items to Watch in India’s Relationships with Select Key Southeast Asian States
