Podcast: Vietnam Foreign Policy Futures Amid Major Power Rivalry
With new initiatives and shifting supply chains, a look at where Vietnam foreign policy is headed under party chief To Lam in more contested region and world.
INTRODUCTION
ASEAN Wonk: Welcome to the ASEAN Wonk Podcast, where we bring you expert insights and regional perspectives on Southeast Asia and Indo-Pacific geopolitics and geoeconomics. I'm your host Dr. Prashanth Parameswaran. If you haven’t already, do subscribe to the ASEAN Wonk platform at www.aseanwonk.com so you don’t miss our full posts.
Our guest today is Ambassador Pham Quang Vinh, who has been one of Vietnam's leading diplomats, with key posts including deputy minister in the foreign ministry, ambassador to the United States, as well as several other roles, including with Vietnam's relations with ASEAN and Asia more generally. We will start our conversation today talking about Vietnam's recent hosting of the leaders of China, Russia, and the United States in a very active geopolitical year. Make sure you watch, listen, or read the full episode as we talk about a range of other subjects, including geoeconomic currents in key sectors like semiconductors, as well as the geopolitics of the South China Sea and the Mekong subregion.
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VIETNAM’S NEW FOREIGN POLICY PARTNERSHIP UPGRADES IN PERSPECTIVE
ASEAN Wonk: So welcome to the ASEAN Wonk Podcast, Ambassador Vinh. Thank you so much for joining us, and let's get into our conversation.
Ambassador Pham Quang Vinh: Thank you Prashanth.
ASEAN Wonk: We were just speaking a little bit earlier about this very active time in Vietnam's geopolitical picture, some of which I've had a chance to witness firsthand during my visits to Hanoi earlier this year as well as last year. And Vietnam is pretty interesting because it is the only country within the last year to have hosted leaders from the United States, China and Russia. And there have also been several upgrades in partnerships, including with Australia, with Japan, and with France very recently. That may not be surprising for those who know how active Vietnam is diplomatically. But it doesn't mean this doesn't deserve credit and attention because it's not very easy to do in terms of hosting these countries and upgrading these partnerships, as you well know, given the atmosphere of US China tensions, the Russia Ukraine war, and so on.
I know from our previous conversations, you've mentioned that you acknowledge this progress, but you also are continually looking for how these upgrades and these relationships actually evolve in terms of actual progress. Lots of developments, including the US elections and Vietnam's own upcoming Party Congress in 2026. So as a diplomat yourself, who has been involved very extensively in Vietnam's relationships, how do you think about the balance between acknowledging these inroads as well as how to sustain the momentum in Vietnam's relationships with these countries?
Ambassador Pham Quang Vinh: Actually, generally, we can say that diplomatic relations with the countries in the world and in the region will be very much important to Vietnam. The two key points that we have now in our country is peace and development. There are two keys. So trying to have this region as a region of peace and growth will be very much important to Vietnam. Vietnam's economy depends also on the supply chains and the the trade arrangements with other countries in the region and in the in the world, especially the three very important centers of trade and economic development in the world: Asia, Europe, and North America.
So, generally speaking, Vietnam wants to deepen relationship with key partners. And our priorities for diplomatic relations among the countries in the world will continue to be those of neighboring and regional countries and the major countries, including the US, China, Japan, the European Union, and other countries. So the momentum that has been created so far, especially in recent years, has created an environment conducive for our efforts of pushing further our economic development towards the goals that we have set for 2030 and 2045. That is to bring our living standards to a higher level and also our economy to a better quality. So this is very much an ultimate goal of us years before and in the very much near future.
“Vietnam's economy depends also on the supply chains…especially the three very important centers of trade and economic development in the world: Asia, Europe, and North America.”
ASEAN Wonk: Great. Thanks a lot, Ambassador Vinh. That's very important context that you mentioned because even as we talk about these big geopolitical relationships with the United States, China, Russia, and so on and so forth, with all of the countries in Southeast Asia, as you know, the imperative of economic growth and providing for citizens and the people of these countries is extremely important in terms of a priority. I wanted to follow up on that notion that you mentioned. So within Southeast Asia, Vietnam is actually quite an interesting case because Vietnam has a hierarchy of diplomatic partnerships. So the highest level being the comprehensive strategic partnership, as you know, where the United States has entered, but also other countries, Japan, for example, within the last year or so. With all of these diplomatic upgrades and relationships, how would you encourage us to think about the significance of these partnerships? Because other countries in Southeast Asia are doing these as well. Often, there are a lot of questions that I get — sometimes even when we cover these on ASEAN Wonk — saying, I mean, how important are all of these? How significant are each of them? And how should we understand them in terms of the substance versus the symbolism?
Ambassador Pham Quang Vinh: Let me talk a little bit about the foreign policies of Vietnam. A consistency in our foreign policy is that we want to be friends with all countries. Number two is that we have priorities for regional and major power countries. And these will be very much important for Vietnam in terms of peace, security, economic development, and including also our role in the world. If we can have good relations with these key partners, that will be very much important for Vietnam, for its own economy, for its own security, and for its engagement with the region and the world. So, let's see. While we broaden our relationship with all countries of the world, we are having a focus on these key partners. Now, in our system, it has been developing over the years that we have the highest level is comprehensive strategic partnership, and we have a strategic partnership and then comprehensive partnership. Now today, we have more than thirty countries belonging to the highest levels that comprise of comprehensive and strategic level. But the highest level in this category is comprehensive strategic level, and we have eight partners, as you just mentioned, from China to the US to Japan to Australia to India to Russia to South Korea as well. And very recently, we have France.
And this is very much not only a politically symbolic issue. Certainly, symbolic importance continues to be crucial, because that signifies Vietnam accords great importance to relationship with these partners. But more important than that is the substance. For example, these key partners are playing a very important role in economic development of Vietnam. For example, we have two way trade with China, for example, over $200 billion. And we have the US, number two in our economic relations and about $123 billion two way trade. And the US continues to be the biggest export market for Vietnam, which is worth of more than $100 billion. But at the same time, we see these key partners, these major powers and key partners are very much crucial to cooperation and peace in our region Southeast Asia and the Asia Pacific. So bilateral relations will continue to be important, but we consider them very much important in the region, especially in the context of relations with ASEAN and contributing to peace and stability and development in this region as well.
Relations with, for example, China, are not only trade, but we have a lot of other activities including investment, including also possibility of infrastructure projects in our country as well. And for the US, one key issue that has just been adopted last year when we have upgraded our relationship to comprehensive strategic level is about technologies and innovation, including the semiconductor sector, for example. This is very much new to our relationship with other countries. So the US is now the first to work with us in this in terms of some sensitive matters. And second, we are very much fond of energy transformation and also green transition. So these partners, including European partners, Japan, US, or China, will be in cooperation with us in these all areas. So I think bilaterally and regionally and multilaterally, these key partners at the highest level, they are very much important not only to the growth of Vietnam, but also to peace and development in the region as well.
“This is very much new to our relationship with other countries. So the US is now the first to work with us in this in terms of some sensitive matters.”
VIETNAM’S ENGAGEMENT WITH MINILATERAL INSTITUTIONS AND NEW REGIONAL DIPLOMATIC INITIATIVES
ASEAN Wonk: Great. Thanks, Ambassador Vinh. And you mentioned there, as you talked about the bilateral relationships, putting things in regional perspective and also including the multilateral aspect, which is very important. One of the other things that I would say is a diplomatic achievement for Vietnam is the fact that Vietnam just hosted, this year, the first iteration of the ASEAN Future Forum, which is the first mechanism on multilateral engagement of its kind that is happening on ASEAN in mainland Southeast Asia. And this is pretty remarkable considering when Vietnam was first admitted into ASEAN, as you know, in 1995, Vietnam was actually a source of anxiety for the initial members of ASEAN. But it has evolved from that status to now being one of the most active and creative members within ASEAN, including boosting some of the forums like the ASEAN Defense Ministers’ Meeting. And now hosting this forum as well, which is which is quite important. And my understanding is there's going be another iteration of that.
We just saw ASEAN convene as well in Laos. And ASEAN actually acknowledged the ASEAN Future Forum as being part of the community-building vision for ASEAN out to 2045 as well. So quite a remarkable achievement. Vietnam is also active in some of these other — we can call them different things, plurilateral or minilateral arrangements — CPTPP, for example, but also, I did note with interest, for example, Vietnam recently joined the Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure that India has been part of. So Vietnam is quite active in this minilateral space as well. And then there are other minilaterals that Vietnam is not formally a part of, like the Quad, AUKUS, so on and so forth. I'm wondering, given your diplomatic experience and having seen Vietnam's diplomatic relationships evolve over the past few decades, how do you think about Vietnam's future role in terms of balancing these multilateral arrangements with the bilateral partnerships you talked about, but also some of these other minilaterals because it's a very active landscape. So how do we think about that in terms of Vietnam's engagements?
Ambassador Pham Quang Vinh: First, let's put in this context. Vietnam is supporting and has been supporting multilateralism. And, in this region of the world, we think that ASEAN is very much important. ASEAN has been playing crucial roles in peace, development, and community building. But at the same time, ASEAN has been establishing and developing institutional linkages with the major powers in this region. And I think that all our partners, including the major powers, have been supporting ASEAN. The way that we in the region are doing it is how to engage the major powers and partners in developing this region into a zone of peace and growth. That is very much important.
Point two is that we think that there can be a number of ways that we can work together. ASEAN is one. But at the same time, there have been in place here a number of other multilateral and regional arrangements that contributed to the common goal of peace and development in the region. The Mekong, for example, we have a lot of institutional arrangements in this region and subregional arrangements on other issues that also have been in place. So now we think multilayered arrangements will be very much important for this region of diversity and differences. So they are complementary to each other, complementary also to the overall role of ASEAN that we have been supporting.
Vietnam has been proposing and has been doing the inaugural ASEAN Future Forum with the view that we think, number one, ASEAN is important for this region. Number two, the world has been changing, including in geopolitics, in the way of development, in the context of technology advancement and also the lack of effective governance in the world and in the region. So trying to attract views from different sectors of the society in this region will be very much important in contributing to the government-to-government dialogue and discussions within the context of ASEAN. So ASEAN Future Forum is part of a process to contribute to to ASEAN, and Vietnam has played a role in that. You mentioned it correctly that we will be doing it again next year, for example.
And you mentioned why we can, at the same time, try different levels of multilateral and minilateral arrangements. That's because, number one, we set the same goal. Number two, we want to have multilayered arrangements that complement each other for Vietnam's economic development and for the region's growth as well. But for some minilateral arrangements, we may not be directly involved or there may be some political complexities that we need to consider again in the context of the countries here in the region. ASEAN and including Vietnam also is very much sensitive on the question of major power rivalry. Our policy is not to take sides. But if we just say “not to take sides” it is not enough; I think that we want to engage with all major powers in a good way in contributing to peace and development in the region and in contributing to cooperation between each country, including Vietnam, with these major powers. If we can do all that at the same time with all the major powers and key partners, it will be very good.
Number three is that there are differences among the members of ASEAN in how to approach the different minilateral mechanisms or arrangements in the region. So let's see a little bit. But to me personally, if any institutional process can be perceived as politically sensitive, let's pick issues that we can cooperate on if it is politically sensitive to engage with the whole institution. We can engage with individual members of the different regional or military arrangements in the region. For example, you mentioned about climate change, resilient supply chains, or critical minerals, and also semiconductors, for example. That would be very much good that I myself personally want to see governments in the region, including Vietnam, to engage. If they consider the institutions here and there and be kind of politically sensitive, they can pick up the issues to engage with one or two or several members of those arrangements. And there are resources available made by those arrangements that we can tap on.
“If they consider the institutions here and there and be kind of politically sensitive, they can pick up the issues to engage with one or two or several members of those arrangements. And there are resources available made by those arrangements that we can tap on.”
VIETNAM’S GEOECONOMIC CHALLENGES AMID “CHINA + 1,” SUPPLY CHAIN SHIFTS AND SECTOR POSITIONING INCLUDING CHIPS
ASEAN Wonk: Great. Thanks, Ambassador Vinh. And I share your perspective on the fact that, when we're thinking about alignments and which institutions a country may or may not join, we should be very flexible about how these partnerships occur. Some of it may be over joining of certain institutions, others may be cooperation on certain issues….
Ambassador Pham Quang Vinh: The Quad, they have only four to call if the Quad. So if some other country joins, they will call it the Five Eyes or whatever.
ASEAN Wonk: Right. And I think throughout Southeast Asia, at least in my travels, I detect among officials there is this notion that if we're cooperating on certain institutions, let's be flexible. Maybe it's on a particular issue. Maybe it's in a more informal sense. And I would also point out I'm very struck you mentioned the Quad. Yes, there there are some — as you pointed out correctly — sensitivities within parts of ASEAN and Southeast Asia about officially joining or engaging with the Quad on some areas. At the same time, it's also striking to me that if you look at Southeast Asia, all Southeast Asian countries have increased relations with the United States, India, Japan, and Australia over the past few years. So even though there might not be formal engagements…
Ambassador Pham Quang Vinh: I can mention the other one thing is that ASEAN have raised its level of partnership with these countries and China to the highest level.
ASEAN Wonk: Exactly, that's right as you pointed out: so it’s not accidental, right? And so I appreciate your perspective there on us being flexible about these alignments and institutions. I wanted to shift a little bit to what you were mentioning earlier about geoeconomics. That’s another really interesting angle where Vietnam has been making a lot of inroads. It's one of the countries that is in the headlines a lot in terms of countries that could benefit from shifting supply chains — the so called China + 1 strategies in areas like semiconductors, for example. By one count, Vietnam is actually one of the top ten countries in terms of attracting foreign investment. Within the last year, the IMF has listed Vietnam as one of these so-called connector countries: so as we're thinking about US-China derisking, Vietnam is actually seen as a country that's able to bridge some of these divides between major powers.
But at the same time, we're also seeing a lot of scrutiny actually on some of China's economic activities moving to third countries, including Vietnam. And we have this interesting context of US enlarging small-yard, high-fence restrictions. And I understand from some of the Vietnamese economic officials that I've spoken to that even in semiconductors, Vietnam, like other countries — like Malaysia, for example, India also — there's a lot of work to be done in terms of areas like talent, for example: getting the necessary recruits and educational institutions developed. How do you see Vietnam’s evolving geoeconomic story playing out in this more complex and fractured global landscape? There's a lot of lots of positive things that are going on. But it's also a very difficult and challenging economic environment for any country to be operating in as well.
Ambassador Pham Quang Vinh: Many of us in the region, Vietnam particularly…