New Trilateral Mekong Pullout With Cambodia CLV-DTA Withdrawal
New Trilateral Mekong Pullout With Cambodia CLV-DTA Withdrawal
Plus Quad-UN spotlight; first trade partnership; AI deepfake counterstrike; new supply chain pact; defense data law; regional grid boost and much, much more.
Greetings to new readers and welcome all to the latest edition of the weekly ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief! If you haven’t already, you can upgrade to a paid subscription for $5 a month/$50 a year below to receive full posts by inserting your email address and then selecting an annual or monthly option. You can visit this page for more on pricing for institutions, groups as well as discounts. For current paid subscribers, please make sure you’re hitting the “view entire message” prompt if it comes up at the end of a post to see the full version.
For this iteration of ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief, we are looking at:
Assessing the geopolitical and geoeconomic significance of a new trilateral minilateral withdrawal in the Mekong subregion;
Mapping of regional developments, such as Quad-UN twin spotlight; new BRICS chatter and North Korea voyage;
Charting evolving geopolitical, geoeconomic and security trends such as first trade partnership; AI deepfake counterstrike and new supply chain pact;
Tracking and analysis of industry developments and quantitative indicators including new defense data law, giant financial zone reboot; regional grid boost and more;
And much more! ICYMI, check out our recent review of a new book on technology and major power competition including on artificial intelligence futures in the Indo-Pacific region.
This Week’s WonkCount: 2,137 words (~10 minutes)
Quad-UN Twin Spotlight; New BRICS Chatter; North Korea Voyage & More
US Taiwan Contingency Options; Assessing Geoeconomic Disruption & Shifting Green Leadership Perceptions
“The majority of U.S. access requests are unlikely to be granted in a Taiwan contingency,” concludes a new report published by the RAND Corporation examining U.S. military prospects for prepositioning supplies and operating from the Philippines, which also includes insights from two other U.S. treaty alliances in Japan and South Korea. On the Philippines, the report additionally notes that while prepositioning kinetic capabilities in peacetime would prove challenging, non-kinetic capabilities along with U.S. aerial ISR capabilities could prove less challenging if they navigate variables like local community acceptance and links to Philippine security objectives (link).
Select US-Philippine Alliance Agreements and Projected Effects on Potential U.S. Military Access
“[C]ountries whose growth depends heavily on trade with geopolitical adversaries are especially vulnerable,” notes a new report on the role of intensifying geopolitical tensions on trade released by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). The report finds geopolitical alignment results in a “sizable” impact on trade flows, with quarter-on-quarter trade volumes growing around 2.5 percent more slowly for geopolitically distant countries relative to those that were closer between the years of 2017 and 2023 (link).
Graph on Impact of Geopolitical Distance on Trade
“However, this year, the US surpassed the EU,” per the climate innovative leadership rankings in the newly-released Southeast Asia Climate Outlook survey by the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute. According to the survey, after Japan which was in first place at 28.5 percent, the United States surpassed the EU to secure second place with 18.3 percent, up from 14.1 percent last year. The EU now ranks third with 16.1 percent. This is followed by China in 4th (14.2 percent); Australia in 5th (5.2 percent); the UK at 6th (4.3 percent); South Korea at 7th (3.7 percent) and India at 8th (1.1 percent). The survey also goes through a range of other topics on the region’s climate future and transition issues (link).
Major Power Climate Innovation Rankings
New Trilateral Mekong Pullout in Cambodia CLV-DTA Withdrawal
What’s Behind It
Cambodia publicly announced its formal withdrawal from a decades-old trilateral subregional minilateral Mekong mechanism in mainland Southeast Asia known as the Cambodia-Laos-Vietnam Development Triangle Area (CLV-DTA) on September 201. As we have noted previously on ASEAN Wonk, intraregional minilateral mechanisms within Southeast Asia including the Mekong subregion matter for regional dynamics, even though they do not get as much international attention as those involving external actors like the Quad or the US-Japan-Philippines trilateral. Longtime premier and current senate president Hun Sen bluntly framed Cambodia’s withdrawal as a bid to “remove weapons from the hands of the enemy,” referring to opposition protests across global capitals that the regime has attempted to manage in recent weeks2. In reality, dynamics behind the CLV-DTA, forged in 1999, date back decades prior to its founding. This included Vietnam’s intervention into Cambodia in 1978 that ousted the genocidal Khmer Rouge and alarmed parts of the region, as well as Hun Sen’s subsequent rise to power which led opponents to label him a “Vietnamese puppet.”3
Select Recent Developments in the Mekong Subregion in 2024
The move drew attention to growing contestation in the Mekong subregion in mainland Southeast Asia. China’s presence at Ream naval base and Beijing’s backing of a major canal project are geopolitical developments that make the most headlines. But more broadly, fragmentation fears in mainland Southeast Asia — which has seen political transitions in the majority of its states within the past year or so — are growing amid exacerbating concerns over natural disasters (like recent Typhoon Yagi); giant scam networks; a civil war, and the fate of one of the world’s largest and longest rivers. Cambodian officials are not unaware of these realities. Just earlier this month, Cambodia hosted the latest iteration of a series of ongoing Greater Mekong Subregion meetings where several of these concerns were at play4. The GMS and the CLV are part of a series of proliferating institutional mechanisms in the Mekong subregion that also include the CLMV and the Thai-led ACMECS. Last week, its environment minister candidly described national efforts in the face of transnational challenges as “not enough”5.
Why It Matters
The withdrawal also highlighted some of the key variables and engagements at play in the Mekong subregion and mainland Southeast Asia more generally (see originally generated ASEAN Wonk table below on future inroads to watch on specific areas and outcomes. Paying subscribers can also read on for more on what to expect and future implications in the rest of the “Why It Matters” and “Where It’s Headed” sections, along with remaining paid-only sections of the newsletter as usual).
Future Engagements to Watch, Select Major Datapoints and Key Variables Post-Trilateral Mekong Minilateral Withdrawal
