New Vietnam-US Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Marks 1st Year
New Vietnam-US Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Marks 1st Year
Plus Xiangshan Forum pulse check; trilateral Taiwan snapshot; big digital U-turn; new infra launch; giant energy deal talk; scam crackdown fallout & much more.
Greetings to new readers and welcome all to the latest edition of the weekly ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief! If you haven’t already, you can upgrade to a paid subscription for $5 a month/$50 a year below to receive full posts by inserting your email address and then selecting an annual or monthly option. You can visit this page for more on pricing for institutions, groups as well as discounts. For current paid subscribers, please make sure you’re hitting the “view entire message” prompt if it comes up at the end of a post to see the full version.
For this iteration of ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief, we are looking at:
Assessing the geopolitical and geoeconomic significance of the U.S.-Vietnam comprehensive strategic partnership anniversary, during which ASEAN Wonk was on the ground for off-the-record engagements amid a flurry of publicized interactions;
Mapping of regional developments, such as South China Sea jaw-jaw; Xiangshan Forum pulse check & new policy platform release;
Charting evolving geopolitical, geoeconomic and security trends such as big digital U-turn; giant energy deal talk and scam crackdown fallout;
Tracking and analysis of industry developments and quantitative indicators including new infra launch; shifting cyber tiers and coming trade mission;
And much more! ICYMI, check out our latest ASEAN Wonk Podcast episode on Indonesia’s foreign policy futures under incoming president President Prabowo Subianto which went live earlier this week. If you like what you’re hearing, do leave us a review on key platforms including Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Thanks for your support as always!
This Week’s WonkCount: 2,236 words (~10 minutes)
South China Sea Jaw-Jaw; Xiangshan Forum Pulse Check & New Policy Platform Release
Trilateral Taiwan Snapshot; Narrative Campaign Analysis & Resilience Test
“[A]ustralians demonstrate less willingness to send military forces to help the United States defend Taiwan…while Japanese and US views on the issue have remained similar to prior years,” notes the third iteration of a trilateral public opinion poll released by the United States Studies Centre in Australia. 32% of Australians disagree with doing so compared to 22% in 2023, and 33-40% of respondents in the three nations support sending military forces. The poll also looks at a range of other issues, including perceived U.S. regional prioritization, China policy, alliance significance and 2024 U.S. election perceptions (link).
Australia, Japan and US Perceptions on Sending Military Forces in a Future Taiwan Scenario
“[I]t is important not to underestimate the potential for the PRC’s indirect messaging tactics to influence Philippine media coverage,” argues a new study by AidData and Asia Society Philippines. The report examines how China uses both direct and indirect channels to influence media coverage of its development image in the Philippines. This includes specific infrastructure projects as well as issues like notorious Philippine offshore gaming operators or POGOs recently banned by Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr (link).
Evolution of Positive Sentiment of Coverage Related to Philippine Offshore Gaming Operators in Philippine Media, 2017-2023
“Southeast Asia’s economies remained resilient and delivered credible economic performance…GDP grew in all economies, with Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam recording the fastest rate of year-on-year growth over the past four quarters,” observes a newly-released quarterly Southeast Asia economic assessment by McKinsey & Company. Looking ahead, the assessment cautions that a “fragile external environment” continues to provide mixed signals amid various ongoing challenges, including geopolitical conflicts (link).
Select Key Economic Indicator Performance for Major Southeast Asia Economies
New Vietnam-US Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Marks First Year
What’s Behind It
The United States and Vietnam marked the first anniversary of their historic double upgrade of ties last year on September 10 amid speculation over party chief To Lam’s expected U.S. visit. ASEAN Wonk was on the ground in Hanoi this past week for a series of off-the-record anniversary engagements amid a flurry of publicized interactions. The latter included the kickoff of new U.S. tech funding for strategic semiconductor partners in Hanoi and the inking of an updated defense joint vision statement in Washington, D.C1. The United States also cited minilateral engagement with Quad countries in assistance to Vietnam after deadly Typhoon Yagi as the death toll climbed past 200 people2. The anniversary commemoration came amid speculation over Vietnam party chief To Lam’s expected U.S. visit coinciding with UN engagements later this month3.
Select Recent Developments in the US-Vietnam Comprehensive Strategic Partnership
The occasion spotlighted ongoing attempts to strengthen bilateral relations. As noted previously on ASEAN Wonk, Hanoi and Washington have tried to make progress on individual CSP areas amid ongoing developments including leadership shifts in Vietnam. The official U.S. statement released on the one-year anniversary reinforced this, noting that cooperation had expanded across “key areas”4. Issues remain, including Hanoi’s continued designation as a non-market economy, the ongoing implementation of the Just Energy Transition Partnership as well as the pace of defense trade relative to inroads in other aspects of the security domain. Expectation management continues to be a critical part of CSP cultivation amid this mix of opportunities and challenges. Indeed, aside from limitations and the caution of Vietnam’s ruling communist party, officials on both sides recognize broader realities, including the fact that the Vietnamese people remarkably consistently register as having among the most pro-American and anti-Chinese sentiment worldwide despite the past U.S. war against Vietnam5.
Why It Matters
The CSP anniversary commemoration also highlighted how both sides are trying to make inroads in ties (see originally generated ASEAN Wonk table below on future inroads to watch on specific areas and outcomes. Paying subscribers can also read on for more on what to expect and future implications in the rest of the “Why It Matters” and “Where It’s Headed” sections, along with remaining paid-only sections of the newsletter as usual).
Future Areas to Watch, New Cooperation Areas and Major Domains in US-Vietnam Comprehensive Strategic Partnership
