Vietnam Foreign Policy Futures After Nguyen Phu Trong Passing
Plus new South China Sea deal talk; infrastructure geopolitics; major rail kickoff; quiet flashpoint construction; big carbon mission; and much, much more.
Greetings to new readers and welcome all to the latest edition of the weekly ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief! If you haven’t already, you can upgrade to a paid subscription for $5 a month/$50 a year below to receive full posts by inserting your email address and then selecting an annual or monthly option. You can visit this page for more on pricing for institutions, groups as well as discounts. For current paid subscribers, please make sure you’re hitting the “view entire message” prompt if it comes up at the end of a post to see the full version.
For this iteration of ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief, we are looking at:
Assessing the state and future trajectory of Vietnam’s ongoing bamboo diplomacy approach and foreign policy outlook amid party chief Nguyen Phu Trong’s recent passing;
Mapping of regional developments, such as a new South China Sea deal; coming Bay of Bengal summit and Pacific diplomacy;
Charting evolving geopolitical and geoeconomic trends such as big bank infrastructure boost; quiet flashpoint construction and major rail kickoff;
Tracking and analysis of industry developments and quantitative indicators including another new coming EV facility; cross-continental carbon mission and emerging special zone progress;
And much more! ICYMI, check out our post earlier in the week reviewing a new book on Philippine foreign policy and broader regional and global implications amid evolving Marcos-Duterte dynamics.
This Week’s WonkCount: 2,168 words (~10 minutes)
New South China Sea Deal; Coming Bay of Bengal Summit; Pacific Diplomacy & More
Infrastructure Geopolitics; Shifting Geoeconomic Risks Picture & Indo-Pacific Transitions Drill Down
“The experts surveyed argued that policymakers could deepen cooperation and dialogue between the Global Gateway and other infrastructure schemes (from the G7, US, Japan, India, Australia, ASEAN etc.) and provide some form of coordination with China to avoid project duplication,” notes a new analysis from the European Parliament analyzing future scenarios on the Global Gateway out to 2030 based on responses from 30 policy experts. The analysis considers four scenarios based on the twin axes of partner need responsiveness and private investment levels: 1) Optimal Gateway; 2) Failed Gateway; 3) Corporate Gateway; and 4) Public Gateway. Recommended measures include better governance capacity along with greater attention to complex tradeoffs in key sectoral areas like critical minerals (link).
Global Gateway Future Partnership Scenarios Out to 2030 And Beyond
“The run-up to the November [US] elections can bring about sharper fluctuations in ASEAN +3 markets especially if the likely outcome points to a further escalation in US-China trade tensions,” warns the latest update on regional economics from AMRO. The update argues that the growth forecast for 2025 remains broadly unchanged, with the overall balance of risk to the outlook becoming more positive (link).
Growth Projections for ASEAN+3 Economies, 2024-2025
“Over the last decade, the Indian Navy has increased its presence in the Indo-Pacific through joint exercises and port calls with Southeast Asian states…however, this acceleration has not led India to conduct freedom of navigation operations or joint patrols, either alone or with other navies, in the South China Sea,” notes a new report by the Council for Strategic and Defense Research and Friedrich-Ebert Stiftung reviewing key trends in Indian foreign policy over the past decade. The report focuses on shifts, accelerations and adaptations in India’s ties with major powers (US, China, Europe and Russia); regions (Indo-Pacific, Global South, Middle East and South Asia) as well as sectors (trade, tech and defense) (link).
Major Select Recent Security Interactions Between India And Select Southeast Asian States
Vietnam Foreign Policy Futures After Nguyen Phu Trong Passing
What’s Behind It
Condolences flowed in from Indo-Pacific capitals following the death of Vietnam communist party chief Nguyen Phu Trong, who the government confirmed on July 19 had passed away following months of ill health1. As we have noted previously on ASEAN Wonk, including during trips to Vietnam, Trong’s health had long been the subject of speculation and factored into run ups to inflection points in its foreign policy such as the U.S. double upgrade. Trong, who was 80, had held the country’s powerful party chief position since 2011. The government has said there will be two days of national mourning from July 25th to 26th with the state funeral on the second day2. Vietnam's newly-appointed president To Lam assumed duties of the role following Trong’s passing.
Select Recent Vietnam Foreign Policy-Related Developments In 2024
Trong’s death came amid an active first half of the year for Vietnam's foreign policy under the “bamboo diplomacy” approach he deepened (see above ASEAN Wonk graphic). Vietnam's leaders have intensified ties with major powers and boosted investment while enduring rising geopolitical competition, which Trong has noted resembles bamboo that bends in the wind without breaking3. Just in the past week, Lam concluded visits to Cambodia and Laos during his first overseas trip covering neighboring Mekong partners4. Last month, Vietnam's leaders hosted Russia President Vladimir Putin. The interaction spotlighted Hanoi’s traditional relationships even as it upgraded ties with relatively newer partners, including a new comprehensive strategic partnership with Australia in March after ones with Japan and the United States last year.
Why It Matters
Trong’s departure will raise questions about how Vietnam's foreign policy evolves in a challenging domestic and international context. Since assuming the presidency, ASEAN Wonk understands from officials that To Lam has in fact been quite receptive to efforts by partners to boost ties with Vietnam during his presidency, including the United States5. This is despite his background in the ministry of public security which is at the root of rights issues. Yet officials also privately admit to worries about growing strains in bamboo diplomacy. Some of these complications are externally driven, such as managing ties with Russia amid the Ukraine war or addressing Cambodia’s Beijing-backed initiatives. But internally, the intensifying anti-corruption campaign and shifting leadership have complicated efforts to attract foreign investors, even though Vietnam remains a regional bright spot. All but one of the country’s top four political positions — known as the “four pillars" — have seen changes in the last year, with over a third of the Politburo’s 18 members resigning in less than two years6.
Vietnam’s future foreign policy trajectory is also evident in terms of strategic communications on current relationships and related touchpoints (see ASEAN Wonk table below. Paying subscribers can also read on for more on what to expect and future implications in the “Prospects” section)7.