What Did the Big 2024 Vietnam Defense Expo Achieve?
Plus major pact advance; fresh space race datapoint; coming nuclear first; global trade breakdown; big new 5G rollout plan; new EV win and much, much more.
Greetings to new readers and welcome all to the latest edition of the weekly ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief! A note that ASEAN Wonk will be off next week for our usual weeklong end-of-year break: we’ll resume publishing January 2. Happy holidays to all and thank you for your support! And if you haven’t already, do consider a paid subscription below to help support our work.
For this iteration of ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief, we are looking at:
Assessing the geopolitical and geoeconomic significance of the evolving security dynamics at play in a new defense expo iteration;
Mapping of regional developments, such as major pact advance; border talks and chairmanship futures;
Charting evolving geopolitical, geoeconomic and security trends such as fresh space race datapoint; coming nuclear first and global trade breakdown;
Tracking and analysis of industry developments and quantitative indicators including big EV first; new 5G rollout; giant green opportunity chatter and more;
And much more! ICYMI, for those who may have missed it, we’re reupping our 2025 geopolitics and geoeconomics forecast that may be useful for those looking ahead to the new year.
This Week’s WonkCount: 2,068 words (~9 minutes)
New Pact Advance; Border Talks; Chairmanship Futures & More
Assessing Trump Risk; China Perceptions Check & Critical Minerals Challenge
“The five countries that are most at risk…are Mexico, Thailand, Slovenia, Austria, and Canada in that order,” notes a newly-released Trump Risk Index released by the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation. The index is based on four indicators — defense spending; trade balance; a composite measure of U.S. anti-U.S. trade and tech policies; and willingness to resist what is characterized as “China’s techno-economic predation” (link).
Designated US Allies At Highest and Lowest Risk of Tariffs in ITIF Trump Risk Index
28 percent more Malaysians describe the “overall impression of China over the past 2 years” as “better” in 2024 relative to 2022, according to new research released by the Merdeka Center. 62 percent thought ties had become better in 2024, compared to just 34 percent in 2022. Sectors of cooperation emphasized for strengthening among respondents included the digital economy, infrastructure development and tourism (other areas like semiconductors, energy and the green economy ranked lower relatively speaking) (link).
Responses to “How Would You Describe Your Overall Impression of China Over the Past 2 Years?”
“Despite ASEAN’s mineral abundance, the global critical minerals market is heavily influenced by geopolitical factors, especially the tensions between China and the United States,” argues a commentary sourced from the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA). The commentary notes several steps Southeast Asian states can take in this competitive geopolitical environment, including modernizing mining infrastructure, creating a strategic mineral reserve and transitioning to a more diversified export base with new strategic mineral corridors via partnerships with Japan, the European Union and the United States (link).
Source: Wikimedia Commons
What Did the Big 2024 Vietnam Defense Expo Achieve?
What’s Behind It
Vietnam held the second iteration of a new biennial defense expo designed to spotlight the country’s security profile1. Vietnam has been trying to embed the new Vietnam Defense Exhibition (VIDEX for short) on the calendar of regional defense exhibitions — which in Southeast Asia includes established engagements like Singapore’s IMDEX Asia and Malaysia’s LIMA exhibition — with the first iteration kicking off in 2022 following what had been partly attributed to pandemic-related interruptions. Vietnamese officials also reinforced to close watchers in conversations ahead of the event that apart from growth metrics that would be closely tracked, this year’s VIDEX also holds added significance in that it is also the 80th anniversary of the Vietnam People’s Army, which officially dates its founding prior to the country’s independence (see a quick snapshot of related developments over the past few weeks via the ASEAN Wonk graphic below)2.
Select Recent Security-Related Developments Amid Holding of Vietnam Defense Expo 2024
The expo put a focus on Vietnam’s defense ties with major powers and coming military deals, despite the country’s public messaging around peace, cooperation and development3. As one indicator of diversity, by ASEAN Wonk’s count, the cross-continental list of countries with double digit exhibitor numbers at VIDEX 2024 included the Czech Republic, India, Indonesia, Japan, Russia, Singapore, Turkey and the United States4. Beyond quantity, U.S. government engagement was unsurprisingly a key storyline with the U.S. Indo-Pacific Commander making his first trip to Vietnam in his position after some historic Cambodia-related announcements, where there were also U.S. sideline engagements involving Cambodia and Laos5 (both of which were represented at the defense ministerial level along with a few other key countries like China which recorded a separate engagement with communist party chief To Lam)6. State media highlighted the government narrative of growing major power competition for market share in a country that consistently spends above 2 percent of its GDP on defense on the way to military modernization goals out to 2030 and beyond7.
Why It Matters
The development highlights key developments and details in some of Vietnam’s external partnerships (see originally generated ASEAN Wonk table below on notable datapoints and additional specifics. Paying subscribers can also read on for more on what to expect and future implications in the rest of the “Why It Matters” and “Where It’s Headed” sections, along with remaining paid-only sections of the newsletter as usual).
Major Developments in Vietnam’s Key External Partnerships and Notable Additional Details
