New India Vietnam Military Credit Line Amid Partnership Boost Talk
New India Vietnam Military Credit Line Amid Partnership Boost Talk
Plus historic 2+2 alliance inroads; beyond BRICS hype; new EV hub talk; record-breaking investment; warring power centers; infra revival chatter & much more.
Greetings to new readers and welcome all to the latest edition of the weekly ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief! If you haven’t already, you can upgrade to a paid subscription for $5 a month/$50 a year below to receive full posts by inserting your email address and then selecting an annual or monthly option. You can visit this page for more on pricing for institutions, groups as well as discounts. For current paid subscribers, please make sure you’re hitting the “view entire message” prompt if it comes up at the end of a post to see the full version.
For this iteration of ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief, we are looking at:
Assessing the geopolitical and geoeconomic significance of the first-ever state visit by Vietnam’s current premier to India and future prospects in their regional and global outlooks;
Mapping of regional developments, such as historic alliance inroads; Kremlin outreach and an emergency extension;
Charting evolving geopolitical, geoeconomic and security trends including new Asia growth engine prospects; warring energy power centers; new EV hub talk and big budget boost;
Tracking and analysis of industry developments and quantitative indicators such as infra revival chatter; record-breaking investment levels and new major finance review;
And much more! ICYMI, check out our post earlier in the week assessing a recent book on China’s ambitions to reshape the maritime order. ASEAN Wonk also appeared on the “Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific” and the “China Global South Project” podcasts, addressing issues including ASEAN centrality and flashpoint management including in the South China Sea.
This Week’s WonkCount: 2,013 words (~10 minutes)
Historic Alliance Inroads; Kremlin Outreach; Emergency Extension & More
New Asia Growth Engine Prospects; BRICS Hype and Lawfare Strategies
“Over the next decade, Southeast Asia should outpace China in GDP growth and foreign direct investment,” reads the headline of a new regional economic outlook on Southeast Asia published by the Angsana Council, Bain & Company and DBS. The outlook assesses that Southeast Asia is likely to outgrow China over the next decade despite global headwinds. The extent to which the region is able to do so will be contingent upon strategies to raise growth that will require policy intervention especially among the so-called ASEAN + 6 economies in Southeast Asia. These include investing in future growth sectors, fostering tech-enabled disruptors, accelerating the green transition and committing to growth-friendly multilateral initiatives (link).
Relative Performance of ASEAN + 6 Economies in Growth-Raising Policy Intervention Strategies
“[U]ltimately, BRICS might prove more important for what it represents, than what it can achieve,” argues a new commentary in The Straits Times assessing the strategic implications of the expanding BRICS grouping named after initial members Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. This comes as some Southeast Asian countries such as Malaysia and Thailand have expressed interest in hopping on the expansion bandwagon. The piece examines the substantial obstacles that BRICS members would have to overcome if the grouping is “to translate such sentiments into substantive change of the prevailing order — let alone ushering a new one.” (link).
“[L]awfare can be a strategic choice for countries with asymmetric dependence,” concludes an article released by the Blue Security Program which examines the use of legal means to manage the South China Sea disputes. The article looks beyond just the Philippines’ well-known South China Sea case against China and also examines diverse perspectives from two other Southeast Asian states — Vietnam, which did not initiate legal proceedings against China but has “left options open”; and Indonesia, which considers international law to be a key pillar of its South China Sea strategy despite officially not considering itself a claimant in the disputes themselves (link to PDF file).
New India Vietnam Military Credit Line Amid Partnership Boost Talk
What’s Behind It
The finalization of $300 million in two defense credit lines headlined an August 1 leader meeting between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and visiting Vietnam Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh. The two sides see overlaps between India’s Act East policy in Southeast Asia and Hanoi’s multidirectional foreign policy, both of which continue to play out. After India’s Quad- and ASEAN-related engagements this month, its president’s landmark East Timor visit will put the focus on regional gains in 2024, which have included the first BrahMos missile Philippines delivery (see below ASEAN Wonk graphic)1. Vietnam’s active diplomatic engagement is also continuing despite its party chief’s recent passing. Officials met the EU foreign policy chief amid upgrade prospects.2 They also played up “profound” significance of first-of-its-kind joint drills with the Philippines this week between the two South China Sea claimants.3
Select Recent Security-Related Developments in India’s Relations with Southeast Asia
The news came as the two Indo-Pacific powers seek to deepen their comprehensive strategic partnership (CSP), which sits at the top of Vietnam’s hierarchy of diplomatic relationships. Both leaders highlighted the strategic logic underpinning ties in public remarks as they announced a new plan of action to carry forward the CSP through to 2028. Modi’s succinct one-liner that the two countries “support evolution, not expansionism” in their unified Indo-Pacific approach — a veiled reference to China — highlighted the geopolitical context for ties4. Both countries are navigating a fractured and polarized world which requires calibrating ties with neighboring countries like an assertive China, traditional partners such as Russia and relatively newer partners including the United States. Reality has at times lagged rhetoric in defense ties, but gains are nonetheless notable. They include the signing of Vietnam’s first-ever logistics agreement with a foreign country in 2022 and a new vessel transfer in 2023.
Why It Matters
Despite the focus on bilateral ties, the trip also highlighted how both sides are trying to make inroads in their regional approaches amid Indo-Pacific shifts through the rest of 2024 and into 2025 (see originally generated ASEAN Wonk table below on future geopolitical inroads to watch on specific areas and outcomes. Paying subscribers can also read on for more on what to expect and future implications in the rest of the “Why It Matters” and “Where It’s Headed” sections, along with remaining paid-only sections of the newsletter as usual)5.
Future Areas to Watch, Priority Cooperation Items and Key Domains in India-Vietnam Ties Amid Wider Indo-Pacific and Global Developments
