Review: China South China Sea Ambitions and Asia Maritime Order
Quest to reshape the Indo-Pacific maritime landscape offers a concerning preview of regional futures where China's law of the sea prevails at others' expense.
China’s quest to reshape Asia’s maritime order offers a concerning preview of the region’s futures amid intensifying major power competition.
WonkCount: 1,457 words (~7 minutes)
Review: China South China Sea Ambitions and Asia Maritime Order
Context
“If you do not drive on the main way, but driving through others’ houses…is that freedom?” China’s defense minister Li Shangfu asked rhetorically at this year’s Shangri-La Dialogue back in June in reference to U.S. behavior in the South China Sea1. Li’s analogy of the South China Sea as merely a congested city where things are “well in order” belies the reality of Beijing’s assertiveness as experienced by other maritime claimants that oppose its illegal nine-dash line, most visibly recently in Second Thomas Shoal (see ASEAN Wonk table below on select assertive and cooperative developments earlier this year)2. It also feeds into regional concerns that China sees itself as the chief arbiter of Asia’s maritime order, with longtime powers like the United States serving as nothing more than outside troublemakers. In such a scenario, to paraphrase one oft-used formulation, the regional maritime order becomes less about adhering to shared rules and more about contests over rocks and resources where the strongest prevails3.
Select Recent Assertive and Cooperative Developments in China’s Southeast Asia Presence
A recent book China’s Law of the Sea by scholar Isaac Kardon addresses Beijing’s approach to the maritime order4. The book draws on roughly a decade of rich academic and practical experiences to examine Beijing’s conduct across waters such as the East China Sea, South China Sea, Taiwan Strait and Yellow Sea, along with responses by countries such as Brunei, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam. This includes a visit to the Spratlys and a stint at China’s Institute for South China Sea Studies in Hainan founded by the influential scholar Wu Shicun. In doing so, it adds to a string of recent books that examine the state of Asia’s maritime domain as well as China’s approach to global order. These include On Dangerous Ground by Greg Poling on U.S. South China Sea policy reviewed on ASEAN Wonk as well as Beijing Rules by Bethany Allen that paints a vivid portrait of China’s use of authoritarian geoeconomic statecraft. China’s Law of the Sea has six main chapters and runs just under 270 pages.
Analysis
The book provides a rigorously researched account of how China is reshaping Asia’s maritime order. China’s intent to do so is not new or unique to this domain: officials have said so publicly5. But China’s Law of the Sea illustrates how Beijing is bending rules to advance its interests, with varying levels of uniformity and consistency. What emerges is an “all-hands-on-deck” program to channel China’s capabilities — including naval, economic and legal — to not just change rules, but fundamentally reshape the environment in which rules take effect and limit their application in waters Beijing claims6. This clear intent and capability is advancing even as other states — despite efforts to exercise their agency — struggle to navigate freely within undelimited boundaries and effectively advance legal avenues for dispute resolution. Meanwhile, Washington still has not signed the very UN Convention of the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) Beijing flouts, even though officials repeatedly note they adhere to it. “China’s law of the sea is already in evidence within the region, and its challenge to international order is taking shape,” Kardon soberly writes7.
China’s Law of the Sea also articulates a clear set of possible futures about how Beijing could affect the maritime order (see ASEAN Wonk table below for a sense of what these futures might entail, including areas to watch and notable details. Paying subscribers can also read the rest of the “Analysis” section and “Implications” section looking at how dynamics may play out in coming years)8.