Southeast Asia Electric Vehicles Race in Focus with New Inroads
Southeast Asia Electric Vehicles Race in Focus with New Inroads
Plus new Japan Philippines reciprocal access agreement; Kremlin views; coming landmark fighter jet deal; new anti-laundering bill; new debt fears and much more.
Greetings to new readers and welcome all to the latest edition of the weekly ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief! If you haven’t already, you can upgrade to a paid subscription for $5 a month/$50 a year below to receive full posts by inserting your email address and then selecting an annual or monthly option. You can visit this page for more on pricing for institutions, groups as well as discounts. For current paid subscribers, please make sure you’re hitting the “view entire message” prompt if it comes up at the end of a post to see the full version.
For this iteration of ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief, we are looking at:
Assessing the geopolitical and geoeconomic significance of Southeast Asia’s ongoing electric vehicle race and in light of twin new developments in the region’s two biggest economies;
Mapping of regional developments, such as a big new defense deal; shifting terrorism risks and lingering territorial dispute;
Charting evolving geopolitical, geoeconomic and security trends such as a coming landmark major fighter jet deal; new counter-laundering bill and fresh debt fears;
Tracking and analysis of industry developments and quantitative indicators including rising digital surveillance fears; cross-country high-speed rail inroads; shifting strategic infrastructure goalposts and more;
And much more! ICYMI, check out our review of a new book on a new strategy for managing nightmare Taiwan scenarios and implications for Southeast Asia.
This Week’s WonkCount: 2,139 words (~ 10 minutes)
Big New Defense Deal; Shifting Terror Risks; Sectoral Boosts & More
Kremlin Views; Cross-Theater Fallout; Charting Energy Futures
“The share holding a positive view has also grown in Malaysia and Singapore where we last surveyed in 2022 immediately following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,“ notes new findings on views of Russia from the Pew Research Center on NATO and related issues ahead of the July summit marking the 75th anniversary of the alliance’s founding. Malaysia was recorded as the only country where a majority expressed a favorable opinion of Russia, with nearly six-in-ten Malaysians saying this. Separately, Malaysia and the Philippines were the only two countries surveyed where majorities expressed confidence in Putin (link).
Views of Russia Across Select Countries (By % of Respondents and Type of Response)
“The fallout for Asia is that Europe’s strategic dependence on the United States will limit its ability to chart an independent course on China,” argues one of a series of views on Europe’s future published by Foreign Policy magazine. The piece argues that though Europe’s ability to contribute to the Indo-Pacific strategic balance may be constrained with the partial exception of Britain and France, Europe still has a strategic role in potentially freeing U.S. military assets for redeployment as Washington deals with challenges across multiple theaters (link).
“[D]ecarbonizing the Indo-Pacific’s energy systems will be hard but not impossible — with the right approach to collective action,” notes a new report by the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA) on energy security in a net-zero future. The report examines the emissions picture across key countries, the pathways for net-zero emissions and the roadmaps for achieving targets bilaterally as well as via regional and global institutions (link).
Power Generation Mix By Country (Ordered from Largest to Smallest Market Size; from 2023 Study)
Southeast Asia Electric Vehicles Race in Focus with New Inroads
What’s Behind It
Twin developments in Southeast Asia’s two largest economies spotlighted the region’s developing electric vehicle (EV) ecosystem this past week. Outgoing Indonesia President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo inaugurated what he called Southeast Asia’s first battery plant of its kind, while China’s BYD opened its first Southeast Asia factory in Thailand1. Both countries are examples of Southeast Asia’s role as a key hub in the global EV value chain. Indonesia, along with the Philippines, is a closely-watched global leader in nickel production, while Thailand — previously dubbed the “Detroit of Asia” — is trying to build off of its reputation as a traditional auto giant. Other notable examples include Malaysia’s status as a critical node in the semiconductor industry and the attempted regional and global inroads made by Vietnam’s VinFast as part of the country’s growth story.
These are just the latest datapoints in the region’s EV outlook, which intersects with key trends including the critical minerals race and ASEAN’s economic sectoral focus. The region is seen as one of the global EV emerging market stories to watch2. Almost 80 percent of the region’s total road fleet could be EVs by 2050 from a low base, amid a confluence of trends such as favorable government policies, infrastructure investments as well as inroads by outside actors including China, which alone accounted for more than 70 percent of all EVs sold regionally last year3. This is despite challenges recognized by policymakers and businesses alike such as charging infrastructure and governance in the critical minerals race — sometimes bracketed under the “ESG” label4. And as we noted on ASEAN Wonk last year, ASEAN’s first-of-its-kind regional declaration on developing a regional EV ecosystem last year was also a sign of the sector’s growing importance at the multilateral level amid country-specific developments5.
Select Major Southeast Asia EV Developments in 2024
Why It Matters
Southeast Asia’s journey has wider geopolitical and geoeconomic impacts. The region’s advantages in parts of the global EV value chain has led to scrutiny on inroads made by major powers. To take just one example, Indonesia’s management of opportunities and challenges around Chinese firms powering its nickel industry is taking place as other regional states try to capitalize on their own resource potential, be it the Philippines engaging partners like Japan and the United States or Malaysia eyeing new policies. As important as that “outside in” angle may be, as one Southeast Asian official put it to ASEAN Wonk in May in Jakarta, it belies more “inside out” trends from within the region. Beyond the intra-ASEAN race for parts of the EV ecosystem, the industry’s outlook is critical in the balance between driving growth and making green transitions in one of the world’s most economically dynamic and climate vulnerable regions.
Southeast Asia’s role in the global EV ecosystem will be dependent on the paths adopted by key countries (see ASEAN Wonk table below for key datapoints in areas on major country approaches and what to watch in the future. Paying subscribers can also read on for more on what to expect and future implications in the “Prospects” section).
Select Key Future EV Partnerships to Watch in Southeast Asia, with Actors, Inroads and Details
