New India Malaysia Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Kicks Off
Plus quiet submarine agreement; new outer space pact; coming Indo-Pacific cyber institution; "China+1" investment rhetoric vs. reality and much, much more.
Greetings to new readers and welcome all to the latest edition of the weekly ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief! If you haven’t already, you can upgrade to a paid subscription for $5 a month/$50 a year below to receive full posts by inserting your email address and then selecting an annual or monthly option. You can visit this page for more on pricing for institutions, groups as well as discounts. For current paid subscribers, please make sure you’re hitting the “view entire message” prompt if it comes up at the end of a post to see the full version.
For this iteration of ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief, we are looking at:
Assessing the geopolitical and geoeconomic significance of the new India-Malaysia comprehensive strategic partnership amid wider Indo-Pacific and global realities;
Mapping of regional developments, including a coming defense pact; minilateral protests; and an Indo-Pacific zero emissions quest;
Charting evolving geopolitical, geoeconomic and security trends such as quiet submarine agreement; new outer space pact and coming Indo-Pacific cyber institution;
Tracking and analysis of industry developments and quantitative indicators including "China+1" investment rhetoric vs. reality; world’s largest solar district; new payment app and more;
And much more! ICYMI, check out the second episode of our new ASEAN Wonk Podcast where we cover future South China Sea scenarios and the US-Philippine alliance in the wake of continued tensions.
This Week’s WonkCount: 2,256 words (~ 10 minutes)
Coming Defense Pact; Minilateral Protests; Indo-Pacific Zero Emissions Quest & More
Disaster-Proofing Check; Great Game Dynamics & Nuclear Realities
“Southeast Asia is one of the most disaster-prone areas in the world, but new data…show people in this region also feel more prepared for disasters than almost anywhere else,” notes a new analysis of the world’s first global survey of disaster risk and safety supported by Gallup. The analysis notes that 62% of Southeast Asian adults surveyed said they lived in a household with a plan all members know in case of future disaster, with 67% saying they could protect themselves and families from future disaster. Only Northern America, which is significantly less disaster-prone, scores close to Southeast Asia as a region (link).
Disaster Preparedness By Subregion As Measured by Level of Planning and Protectedness
“Hardly a week goes by without a new initiative by Australia and others…to counterbalance China’s deepening reach into key sectors such as policing and telecommunications,” argues a new data snapshot released by the Lowy Institute on major power competition in the Pacific Islands. The snapshot leverages previous data on the contours of competition in various areas, including 178 bilateral and multilateral engagements with Pacific Island countries since 2021; 18 new embassies opening since 2017; and an increase in the number of donors to 82 in 2021 from 31 in 2008 (link).
Key Embassy Openings and Closures in the Pacific Region Since 2017
“The recent announcement that Singapore and the United States signed a 123 Agreement…reignited questions about whether Southeast Asian countries are ready to use nuclear power plants to address the twin problems of climate change and energy security,” notes a new commentary published by the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. The piece notes that while proliferation risks may not be much of a concern, interested countries must examine whether domestic and international nuclear governance regimes would need revision to take in unique specifications of small modular reactors (link).
New India Malaysia Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Kicks Off
What’s Behind It
India and Malaysia elevated their relationship to a comprehensive strategic partnership in a boost for New Delhi’s Act East policy in Southeast Asia1. The elevation came amid other recent inroads for New Delhi in the region covered here on ASEAN Wonk, including a new defense credit line for Vietnam and opening of a new embassy in East Timor. These advances have occurred in spite of limitations recognized in New Delhi and ASEAN capitals. Economically, New Delhi punches below its weight, ranking as just the region’s sixth biggest trade partner and not making the top ten list among investors2. Strategically, some quantitative indicators suggest regional perceptions of India as a balancer against China still lag rhetoric. For example, one recent survey found India ranked ninth out of 11 dialogue partners in strategic relevance to ASEAN, below Russia and above only Canada and New Zealand3. Within Southeast Asia, Malaysia has long held links with India that offer challenges and opportunities. For instance, Malaysia is India’s third-largest trading partner in ASEAN and hosts the world’s third-largest Indian diaspora at nearly 3 million people4.
Select Recent Geopolitical Developments in India’s Relations with Southeast Asia
The elevation was a culmination of ongoing efforts to chart a new future for ties after some past challenges. As Modi put it in his remarks amid bilateral interactions during Anwar’s visit August 19-21, the new CSP occurred in a context where ties had “gained a new momentum and energy” since Anwar took office, offering a chance to reinforce the nearly decade-old enhanced strategic partnership5. By one count, there have been more than 15 bilateral visits at the level of minister or deputy minister so far during Anwar’s time in office6. Despite the overwhelming media focus on Anwar’s approach to China and the United States, Malaysia has also intensified relations with other key major powers including Japan and India and explored joining new institutions like the BRICS. Before Anwar took office, advancing ties with India had been complicated by dynamics including a rift over Kuala Lumpur’s criticism of India’s approach to Kashmir and New Delhi’s ban of palm oil in a sector which Malaysia dominates7.
Why It Matters
The trip highlighted how both sides are trying to make inroads in their regional approaches amid Indo-Pacific shifts through the rest of 2024 and into 2025 (see originally generated ASEAN Wonk table below on future geopolitical inroads to watch on specific areas and outcomes. Paying subscribers can also read on for more on what to expect and future implications in the rest of the “Why It Matters” and “Where It’s Headed” sections, along with remaining paid-only sections of the newsletter as usual).
Future Areas to Watch, Priority Cooperation Items and Key Domains in India-Malaysia Ties Amid Wider Indo-Pacific and Global Developments
