New Australia-Indonesia Defense Pact Amid Prabowo Engagement Push
New Australia-Indonesia Defense Pact Amid Prabowo Engagement Push
Plus mapping AI chip deserts; new critical minerals datapoint; tech race check; subsea cable geopolitics; fighter jet selection inroads and much, much more.
Greetings to new readers and welcome all to the latest edition of the weekly ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief! If you haven’t already, you can upgrade to a paid subscription for $5 a month/$50 a year below to receive full posts by inserting your email address and then selecting an annual or monthly option. You can visit this page for more on pricing for institutions, groups as well as discounts. For current paid subscribers, please make sure you’re hitting the “view entire message” prompt if it comes up at the end of a post to see the full version.
For this iteration of ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief, we are looking at:
Assessing the geopolitical and geoeconomic significance of the new Australia-Indonesia defense pact amid wider regional dynamics;
Mapping of regional developments, such as intra-South China Sea claimant cooperation; new fighter jet selection and border management;
Charting evolving geopolitical, geoeconomic and security trends such as new critical minerals datapoint; AI chip deserts and shifting Taiwan alert levels;
Tracking and analysis of industry developments and quantitative indicators including strategic port watch; subsea cable geopolitics; and new infra fund;
And much more! ICYMI, check out our latest podcast episode where we addressed a range of geoeconomic topics including IPEF, CPTPP, DEPA, JETPs, DEFA, the ASEAN AI guide and de-risking.
This Week’s WonkCount: 2,118 words (~10 minutes)
Intra-South China Sea Claimant Cooperation; New Fighter Jet Selection & Border Management
Critical Tech Race Check; Emerging Statelet & Rethinking Talent Strategy
“China led in just three of 64 technologies…but is now the lead country in 57 of 64 technologies,” notes a recent update by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute which contrasts major power rankings in technology across two decades. By contrast, the United States led in 60 of 64 technologies in the five years from 2003 to 2007, but in the most recent five years (2019–2023) is leading in just seven. The trilateral security partnership between Australia, the UK and the US has closed the gap on a few Pillar 2-relevant technologies but not all (see below). Among so-called “secondary science and technology research powers” beyond China and the United States which feature among the top five country rankings on specific areas, India has seen a boost and ranks in the top 5 countries for 45 of 64 technologies (an increase from 37 last year), while the UK dropped out of the top 5 country rankings in eight technologies. Other secondary powers include Germany (27), South Korea (24), Italy (15), Iran (8), Japan (8) and Australia (7) (link).
Major Power Research Share Across a Range of Relevant AUKUS Pillar II Technologies
“As they navigate the challenges created by the likely emergence of a new statelet on Myanmar’s western periphery, Bangladesh, India and others should find ways to engage with the Arakan Army’s leadership…not least by preventing a humanitarian catastrophe on their doorsteps,” argues a new report on the future of Rakhine State by the International Crisis Group. The report’s recommendations include urging the Arakan Army to better manage its ties with the Rohingya and other foreign states. It also calls for a more comprehensive approach by a wider array of international actors that prioritizes sustained aid for the people of Rakhine State; engaging with a wider range of actors including media to act as a check against the Arakan Army; and finding ways to engage with the group itself despite its status as a non-state entity (link).
Select Territorial Control Areas and Focus Points in Myanmar’s Rakhine State
“Thus, one important policy implication based on the contrasting experiences of Japan and Singapore is the importance of fostering an appreciation for cultural diversity in attracting foreign talent,” notes a new article in World Development which develops a portfolio theory of talent comparing the cases of Japan and Singapore. Rather than focusing on just one aspect of talent management such as “brain drain,” the article argues that country success should be evaluated based on the risk, diversification, and rebalancing in four aspects of a portfolio theory of talent — “brain train”; “brain gain”; “brain circulation” and “brain linkage” (see image below on talent layers, capital change and primary risks) (link).
Representation of The Four Talent Philosophy Components
New Australia-Indonesia Defense Pact Amid Prabowo Engagement Push
What’s Behind It
Australia and Indonesia inked a new defense agreement amid an active few weeks in regional dynamics. ASEAN Wonk understands both sides navigated complex defense diplomacy in historically rocky ties to get the agreement to the finish line amid a presidential transition. Eventually, Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto met Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and senior officials in Canberra, and then Defense Minister Richard Marles flew to Indonesia to ink the pact1. This flurry of diplomacy occurred amid related developments. For instance, Indonesia co-launched Super Garuda Shield – an originally bilateral exercise with the United States which has increasingly become a regional multinational hub following Cobra Gold in Thailand and Balikatan in the Philippines2. Australia participated after launching the 2024 iteration of its regional defense engagement Indo-Pacific Endeavor involving Indonesia and other ASEAN states (see graphic below for summary of some key developments)3.
Select Recent Geopolitical Developments in Australia-Indonesia Defense and Foreign Relations
The pact signing was a culmination of ongoing efforts to elevate ties after some past challenges and amid current strategic realities. As noted previously on ASEAN Wonk, Australia’s government has been among the earliest to engage Prabowo following his election victory, partly in recognition that such markers of status are important to him. That has not gone unrecognized in the context of the defense pact. Indeed, Prabowo began his remarks on his meeting with Albanese on August 20 by recalling that the premier was the first foreign leader to congratulate him just a day after Indonesia’s elections were held on February 144. Substance-wise, the new treaty-level defense pact can help facilitate interoperability and access, even if its ability to live up to the “historic” label on Canberra’s part will likely face some skepticism due to previous downturns in ties5. Early engagement on this front also matters as Prabowo begins to develop Indonesia’s ties with key countries. Suggestions of resumed drills with China are an important reminder of this broader strategic context, even if these interactions pale in comparison to those Jakarta has with key partners and suspicions remain6.
Why It Matters
The new Australia-Indonesia defense cooperation agreement highlighted how both sides are trying to make inroads in their relationship (see originally generated ASEAN Wonk table below on future geopolitical inroads to watch on specific areas and outcomes. Paying subscribers can also read on for more on what to expect and future implications in the rest of the “Why It Matters” and “Where It’s Headed” sections, along with remaining paid-only sections of the newsletter as usual).
Future Areas to Watch, Priority Cooperation Items and Key Domains in India-Malaysia Ties Amid New Australia-Indonesia Defense Cooperation Agreement
