Q&A: The Geopolitics of Malaysia-Singapore Strategic Convergence
A cross-border strategic game-changer could be at play across the Malaysia-Singapore border, amid wider realities including U.S.-China competition.
ASEAN Wonk recently spoke with a former deputy minister and current advisor to the Malaysian government on the geopolitical and geoeconomic dynamics behind cross-border Malaysia-Singapore cooperation as well as the implications for the wider region across several fronts including intensifying U.S.-China competition and sectoral economic trends.
WonkCount: 2,121 words (~10 minutes)
Q&A: The Geopolitics of Malaysia-Singapore Strategic Convergence
Cross-border Malaysia-Singapore dynamics have long been a closely watched storyline in Southeast Asia for various reasons, including the realities of outstanding disputes between the two neighbors and the promise of combined economic heft that would have implications for other Southeast Asian states, major powers and companies operating in the region1. 2024 has seen a greater focus on this amid evolving changes. Both countries have announced new progress on a special economic zone; Singapore in the midst of an impending leadership succession; and Malaysia has just witnessed the ascension of the Sultan of Johor to the head of the country’s unique rotating monarchy system as Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim tries to boost his government’s performance amid criticism in some quarters2. Both countries are also subject to wider geopolitical and geoeconomic dynamics in 2024, including transitions such as Indonesia’s recent elections; U.S.-China competition; advancing the ASEAN agenda and managing the challenges of Myanmar and the South China Sea.3
To drill down on these dynamics and more, ASEAN Wonk spoke with Malaysia’s former deputy minister of international trade and industry and member of parliament Dr. Ong Kian Ming. After his time in government, he is currently, among other things, an advisor to the Malaysian government, a professor at Taylor’s University and a prominent commentator on public policy issues. The wide-ranging “ASEAN Wonk DrillDown” — following our first with Ambassador Robert Blake on Indonesia — touches on several areas, including future scenarios that governments, companies and thinkers should be prepared for; geopolitical and geoeconomic opportunities and challenges; sectoral areas to watch; as well as new strategic initiatives for both sides to consider.
ASEAN Wonk: The geoeconomic game-changing potential of cross-border Malaysia-Singapore cooperation is taking place amid a consequential period within Southeast Asia, where we are seeing a race for post-pandemic growth. How would you frame this wider regional and global context for our readers? How are Southeast Asian countries thinking about navigating this, and, in your view, are there some general considerations they should keep in mind in 2024 and beyond?
Deputy Minister Ong Kian Ming: Southeast Asian countries are in a unique position to compete as well as cooperate with one another to attract foreign direct investment coming to the region as a result of intensifying U.S.-China competition. Countries which can leverage on their unique value propositions to work together to attract foreign direct investment and to catalyze value-added economic growth will come out with bigger “wins”. This is the context of the Special Economic Zone proposal between Malaysia and Singapore.
ASEAN Wonk: We have seen various attempts at framing game-changing geoeconomic potential for cross-border Malaysia-Singapore cooperation, with a case in point being the China analogy of how Shenzhen developed by leveraging on the economic progress of Hong Kong which we saw cited again after the announcement of progress on a Malaysia-Singapore cross-country special economic zone. Do you think this analogy is a good fit relative to others that might exist, including ones in Southeast Asia itself?
Deputy Minister Ong Kian Ming: The Shenzen-HK comparison is a useful one especially for foreign investors and it highlights the possible growth trajectory of Johor as part of the SEZ with Singapore. Of course, Malaysia’s market is not the same as China and Johor is not the same as Guangdong Province which means expectations have to be tempered slightly as a result. But as an economic narrative, it is a compelling one to “sell” to investors, both foreign and domestic.
ASEAN Wonk: The geoeconomic logic of greater cross-border Malaysia-Singapore cooperation is framed in different ways, be it Malaysia latching on to Singapore’s status as a regional hub or Singapore seeking to overcome its traditional lack of a hinterland. How would you frame the aggregate economic case for Malaysia and Singapore as a more combined market for businesses?
Deputy Minister Ong Kian Ming: I would make the case for greater value-added cooperation using three lenses. The first is the need for a new narrative of cooperation with Singapore for the new unity government in Malaysia and the need for new ideas for the new leadership which will be taking over in Singapore as part of the transition from Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong to the fourth-generation (4G) leaders including the prime minister designate Lawrence Wong.
The second is the need for Singapore to leverage on Malaysia as its hinterland in the face of the rapid rise in the cost of doing business in Singapore post COVID-19; and for Malaysia to propose additional value-added areas of economic activities which Singapore and companies based in Singapore want to “off-shore” to Malaysia.
The third is the need to look for catalytic joint projects and investments that will bring higher value-added FDI and domestic investment opportunities to both countries, especially in the midst of the U.S.-China competition and various “Plus One” strategies related to areas such as supply chains.
ASEAN Wonk: The game-changing potential of cross-border Malaysia-Singapore cooperation is also taking place amid broader megatrends in Southeast Asia, one of which is intensifying U.S.-China competition. How would you frame the balance of opportunities and challenges for Southeast Asian economies given the context of intensifying U.S.-China competition? Are there specific ASEAN countries that are doing better than others?