Review: Great Power Technology Competition and AI US-China Futures
How tech revolutions drive power balances and why emerging technologies could hold the key to shifting dynamics in the Indo-Pacific and beyond.
A new book examines how countries can best position themselves amid the ongoing global technological revolution that is reshaping Indo-Pacific power dynamics beyond U.S.-China competition.
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Review: Great Power Technology Competition and AI US-China Futures
Context
“[I] also want to stress that human values, data protection and the responsible use of technology are all affected and given a new meaning by this technology,” Malaysia Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim noted in remarks reiterating the country’s goal of becoming a top 20 artificial intelligence nation earlier this year at a key technology engagement1. Anwar’s comments on the country’s geoeconomic and geopolitical positioning have been covered extensively, including here at ASEAN Wonk. But the calibration between the quest for leadership in critical areas like AI and acknowledgment of broader consequences of these technologies is a trend seen in several Southeast Asian states and the world more generally amid the rise of new approaches and frameworks. This broader question exists amid periodic headlines in major power competition in critical and emerging technologies. One widely-cited estimate earlier this year put the United States ahead of China in AI by two or three years2. A broader, newly study on over 60 critical technologies — including AI, space, cyber, quantum and energy — concluded that China now leads in 57 out of 64 such technologies compared to 3 out of 64 just two decades ago, while the United States has gone from leading in 60 out of 64 two decades ago to just 7 out of 64 today3.
Select Recent Geopolitical Tech-Related Developments in Key Southeast Asia States in 2024
A new book Technology and the Rise of Great Powers by academic Jeffrey Ding argues that countries are more likely to find success in the ongoing tech revolution if they pay more attention to the deeper adoption and diffusion of technologies into economies at scale, rather than individual eureka moments of innovation and leadership4. The argument broadens the lens on the question of technology and great power competition and adds to recent book-length studies including Kai-Fu Lee’s AI Superpowers; Jacob Helberg’s The Wires of War; and The Age of AI by Eric Schmidt, Henry Kissinger and Daniel Huttenlocher5. Technology and the Rise of Great Powers runs 217 pages6.
Analysis
The book provides granular, empirically-derived insights for Indo-Pacific policymakers looking to build deep strengths in the ongoing Fourth Industrial Revolution beyond shallow dominance. As the book notes, amid rival projections on the U.S.-China AI arms race, it is worth noting that the broader dynamics around adoption and diffusion rather than initial innovations influenced power shifts in the first three industrial revolutions — the 1st Industrial Revolution and Britain’s rise (1780-1840); the 2nd Industrial Revolution and U.S. ascent (1870-1914); and the 3rd Industrial Revolution and Japan’s attempted challenge (1960-2000)7. These included the success of pre-WWI broadening of U.S. mechanical engineering skills and Japan’s limitations in diffusing general-purpose information and communications technology8. That record, further supported by recent quantitative data, has relevance amid ongoing debates around Indo-Pacific tech policy — from national positioning in Southeast Asia’s cross-sectoral electric vehicles race to the weight of variables like talent or export controls in U.S. semiconductor policy amid the chip war. “[T]hey have learned the wrong lessons,” Ding writes on how some policymakers are positioning themselves for tech-driven power transitions in areas like artificial intelligence9.
Technology and the Rise of Great Powers also forecasts the outlook for key policy areas that are important to watch and will be of interest to scholars, policymakers and businesses alike (see table below for a summary of these priority areas, along with major issues to watch and notable details. Paying subscribers can also read the rest of the “Analysis” section and “Implications” section looking at how these dynamics play out in the future)10.