New Leak Spotlights Malaysia’s Old South China Sea Challenge
Plus Kremlin ASEAN links; shifting geoeconomic positioning; new border dispute spotlight; digital censorship fears; big new energy deal and much, much more.
Greetings to new readers and welcome all to the latest edition of the weekly ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief! If you haven’t already, you can upgrade to a paid subscription for $5 a month/$50 a year below to receive full posts by inserting your email address and then selecting an annual or monthly option. You can visit this page for more on pricing for institutions, groups as well as discounts. For current paid subscribers, please make sure you’re hitting the “view entire message” prompt if it comes up at the end of a post to see the full version.
For this iteration of ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief, we are looking at:
Assessing the geopolitical and geoeconomic significance of evolving South China Sea dynamics with the recent spotlight on Malaysia-China tensions;
Mapping of regional developments, such as Kremlin ASEAN links; new ugrades and papal tour;
Charting evolving geopolitical, geoeconomic and security trends such as shifting geometric positioning; new dispute spotlight and criminal crackdown update;
Tracking and analysis of industry developments and quantitative indicators including digital censorship fears; big new energy deal; shifting border controls and more;
And much more! ICYMI, check out our insights and analysis on a new book on the Philippines’ evolving China policy and implications for the wider Indo-Pacific region.
This Week’s WonkCount: 2,114 words (~10 minutes)
Kremlin ASEAN Links; New Upgrades; Papal Tour & More
Shifting Geoeconomic Positioning; Decoupling Strategic Imperatives & Winning the Talent War
“Notably, geopolitical distance has remained stable for ASEAN and India; their trade continues to span a broad geopolitical spectrum,” notes a report by McKinsey & Company on key trends in Asia’s geopolitics and geoeconomic patterns and shifts. McKinsey’s measure of “geopolitical distance” of trade is an analog of geographic distance that quantifies how geopolitically close an economy is to its trade partners. According to this metric, between 2017 and 2023, the average geopolitical distance of trade fell by 4 percent for China; for Japan and South Korea, geopolitical distance fell by 4 percent and 6 percent, respectively. This indicates that the trade of these economies has shifted to geopolitically closer partners (link).
Geometric Shifts in Select ASEAN Economies, 2017-2023
“Asia-Pacific countries can use digital transformation to decouple economic growth from carbon emissions,” notes a new iteration of a United Nations report which assesses digital transformation across the Asia-Pacific region. The report updates three future scenarios – negative, neutral and positive – with respect to the region’s digital-growth-climate nexus. It also identifies individual digitally advanced, high-income countries which have successfully decoupled economic growth from carbon emissions, including Singapore, South Korea and several Nordic countries (link).
Emissions and GDP Per Capita with Average Internet Usage in Select ASEAN Economies
“High-quality education and skills development remain significant challenges for ASEAN,” notes a new commentary over at East Asia Forum on talent development in Southeast Asia. The piece suggests that beyond existing measures such as specialized visa programs, efforts should also be placed on addressing issues related to economic inequality and domestic workers (link).
New Leak Spotlights Malaysia’s Old South China Sea Challenge
What’s Behind It
Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim in Russia insisted the country would “secure economic advantage” in the South China Sea amid an active few weeks in inter-claimant activity including a leaked China protest note1. The timing of the leak is notable, even though Chinese protests have become a troublingly routine part of Malaysia-China South China Sea dynamics rather than news as we have noted on ASEAN Wonk2. Malaysia is heading into its 2025 ASEAN chair year and just assumed the position of China dialogue partner coordinator last month3. The leak also comes amid frustrations in some circles that fellow claimants like Malaysia are not adequately supporting the bold Philippine approach of once again challenging China’s assertiveness after a muted past few years. This frustration belies the historical challenges of forging intra-Southeast Asian unity and the bespoke nature of claimant positions. The careful calibration during the Vietnam defense minister’s Manila visit — present but unsurprisingly short of full claimant solidarity — was just the latest case of this4.
Select Recent Geopolitical Developments in Intra-South China Sea Claimant Dynamics
Graphic by ASEAN Wonk Team The engagement drew attention to Malaysia’s South China Sea position and the stakes at play which officials are well aware of. One official detailed to ASEAN Wonk in May in Kuala Lumpur the cost-benefit analysis in even calibrated escalation with “big brother” (China). That official noted quiet Malaysian steps, including energy exploration, defense reinforcement and strengthening exercises with Australia, Japan and the United States5. Some defense planners do worry about whether these are sufficient as Malaysia ventures further out for its energy needs and confronts a more assertive China with repeatedly scuppered military modernization plans6. Yet confusing some of Anwar’s pro-China rhetoric for South China Sea ignorance would be a mistake. Apart from China or energy, the two parts of Malaysia are split by water, which intrinsically connects its maritime stakes to its territorial integrity. Government inability to address sovereignty challenges affecting east Malaysia are also tied to pre-independence compacts sensitively managed today7. Anwar has also already directly seen how this can intersect with domestic politics during his tenure.
Why It Matters
The incident highlighted the broader issue of how Malaysia is addressing its defense and foreign policy positioning to address issues including the South China Sea (see originally generated ASEAN Wonk table below on future geopolitical inroads to watch on specific areas and outcomes. Paying subscribers can also read on for more on what to expect and future implications in the rest of the “Why It Matters” and “Where It’s Headed” sections, along with remaining paid-only sections of the newsletter as usual).
Significant Recent Developments and Notable Details in Malaysia’s Engagements with Key Partners
