New Dialogues, Expansion Headline Pacific Pact CPTPP Talks
Plus Indo-Pacific ministerial; military agreement launch chatter; coming digital ban; mineral partnerships; quiet outer space inroads and much, much more.
Greetings to new readers and welcome all to the latest edition of the weekly ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief! If you haven’t already, you can upgrade to a paid subscription for $5 a month/$50 a year below to receive full posts by inserting your email address and then selecting an annual or monthly option. You can visit this page for more on pricing for institutions, groups as well as discounts. For current paid subscribers, please make sure you’re hitting the “view entire message” prompt if it comes up at the end of a post to see the full version.
For this iteration of ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief, we are looking at:
Assessing the geopolitical and geoeconomic significance of new inroads in a key Pacific trade pact as well as wider future international implications;
Mapping of regional developments, including Indo-Pacific ministerial and twin partnership upgrades in the spotlight;
Charting evolving geopolitical, geoeconomic and security trends such as military pact launch chatter; coming digital ban and quiet crypto kickoff;
Tracking and analysis of industry developments and quantitative indicators including mineral partnerships; outer space inroads and big energy deal;
And much more! ICYMI, check out the new episode of the ASEAN Wonk Podcast for a business perspective on the bigger geoeconomic stakes behind recent U.S.-Malaysia inroads including a new trade deal and upgrade amid domestic blowback in some quarters;
This Week’s WonkCount: 2,279 words (~10 minutes)
Indo-Pacific Ministerial; Twin Partnership Upgrades & More
China Shock 2.0; Great Power Competition Tracking & Missed Target
“Southeast Asian economies are especially at risk from China Shock 2.0 both as connectors between China and the rest of the global trading system and as vibrant consumer markets,” notes this year’s iteration of an annual report compiled for Congress by the U.S. China Economic and Security Review Commission. This iteration included a focus on U.S.-China competition in Southeast Asia and the Pacific Islands, along with other relationships such as with Russia, Iran and North Korea and sectors like outer space and supply chains (link).
Graph Depicting ASEAN’s Evolving Trade Deficit with China, 2015–2025
“Micronesia sits at the center of Pacific great power competition,” notes a newly-launched, first-of-its-kind interactive mapping tool called the Micronesia Security Monitor developed by the Guam-based Pacific Center for Island Security, which notes regional coverage to include Guam, the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, the Republic of Palau, the Federated States of Micronesia, the Republic of the Marshall Islands, the Republic of Kiribati and the Republic of Nauru. The platform consolidates data from multiple sources to serve as a useful resource for policymakers, commentators and researchers (link).
Screenshot Of Micronesia Security Monitor Tracking Tool
“The world remains off track,” warns a new report released by the International Energy Agency amid ongoing assessments of the recently-concluded COP30 UN climate talks in Brazil. The report assesses that global energy efficiency progress – measured by the rate of change in primary energy intensity – has fallen to 1.3% per year on average since 2019, which is over half its longer-term average of around 2% per year in the period 2010- 2019, and well below the previous target of a 4% annual improvement by 2030 (link).
Graph Depicting Energy Efficiency Progress By Select Countries And Regions From 2010-2025
New Dialogues, Expansion Headline Pacific Pact CPTPP Talks
What’s Behind It
Twin new dialogues were forged during the meeting of a Pacific trade grouping whose members constitute nearly a sixth of global GDP1. Amid meetings of the G-20 and UN climate talks, the countries that constitute the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) — which includes four Southeast Asian members — inaugurated two separate and new regional dialogues with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the European Union (EU)2. Beyond more ambitious suggestions of the implications for expanding geoeconomic diversification in the face of growing protectionism and fracturing supply chains, officials privately note that more realistic, immediate next steps center around greater sectoral collaboration and capacity-building with significance of their own3.
Select Key Recent Geoeconomic and Geopolitical Developments Alongside CPTPP Commission Meeting
The proceedings also put scrutiny on ongoing expansion efforts in and beyond Southeast Asia. The acknowledgment of Indonesia and the Philippines as aspirant CPTPP members publicizes well-known efforts underway. Arguably more significant were other suggestions put forth by CPTPP members and partners about next steps regarding what some officials characterize as delayed steps in institution-building and focus, including active players like Vietnam which will be at the center of geoeconomic conversations in the next couple of years as both the CPTPP chair in 2026 and APEC host in 2027 (after China in 2026)4.
Why It Matters
The development also pointed to priority datapoints to watch with wider regional and global implications (see originally generated ASEAN Wonk table below on notable areas to monitor and additional specifics. Paying subscribers can read on for more on what to expect and future implications in the rest of the “Why It Matters” and “Where It’s Headed” sections, along with paid-only sections of the newsletter as usual).
Future Datapoints to Watch, Alongside Key Priority Initiatives and Major Areas
