First Dialogue Kickoff Spotlights New ASEAN EU Ministerial
Plus new partnership roadmap; semiconductor pact; submarine cable launch; global geoeconomic task force rollout; allied maritime datapoint and much, much more.
Greetings to new readers and welcome all to the latest edition of the weekly ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief! If you haven’t already, you can upgrade to a paid subscription for $5 a month/$50 a year below to receive full posts by inserting your email address and then selecting an annual or monthly option. You can visit this page for more on pricing for institutions, groups as well as discounts. For current paid subscribers, please make sure you’re hitting the “view entire message” prompt if it comes up at the end of a post to see the full version.
For this iteration of ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief, we are looking at:
Assessing the geopolitical and geoeconomic significance of the convening of a new ministerial dialogue kickoff and wider regional and global implications;
Mapping of regional developments, including new partnership roadmap and membership expansion inroads;
Charting evolving geopolitical, geoeconomic and security trends such as new semiconductor pact; security trilateral future and trade task force rollout;
Tracking and analysis of industry developments and quantitative indicators including shipbuilding alliance datapoint; quiet subsea cable inroads; shifting geoeconomic sentiment pulse check and more;
And much more! ICYMI, check out our ASEAN Wonk review earlier this week of a new book by an ex-intelligence officer on managing Taiwan scenarios.
This Week’s WonkCount: 2,237 words (~10 minutes)
New Partnership Roadmap; Membership Expansion & More
Flashpoint Futures; Reset Opportunity & Border Microscope
"Beyond the desire to defend Taiwan, the threat to global shipping may prompt other nations to act,” notes a new publication on Taiwan contingency scenarios and considerations released by the Stimson Center think tank. The report includes a section on potential international responses including from U.S. allies like the Philippines (link).
“Under President Prabowo’s leadership, Indonesia has a significant opportunity to reset and reinvigorate its foreign policy apparatus,” suggests a new policy report published by CSIS Indonesia in Jakarta on prospects for the country’s regional and international outlook. The report touches on several areas including reinvigorating ASEAN, engaging minilaterals and adapting key Indo-Pacific partnerships (link).
Key Elements in Indonesia Foreign Policy Process
“Development issues in border areas between two countries are often highly complex,” observes a new article in Kyoto Review of Southeast Asia that examines border dynamics between China and Myanmar. The article includes insights from investigations across border villages, including village and household level data from sample villages and individual-level data from cross-border residents (link).
First Dialogue Kickoff Spotlights New ASEAN EU Ministerial
What’s Behind It
A new dialogue kickoff between Europe and Southeast Asia flew under the radar this week amid a flood of major power-related developments1. Much of the attention was focused on China’s hosting of war commemoration activities and summitry in Tianjin, which we spotlighted on ASEAN Wonk this past week. Yet other non-China developments were notable as well. On the security side, 13 countries — including three from Europe — collaborated for the largest-ever iteration of the Super Garuda Shield exercise jointly hosted by the United States and Indonesia, while delegations were announced separately for the upcoming Seoul Defense Dialogue this week2. Economically, the leaders of India and Singapore publicized an expected roadmap for cooperation for their comprehensive strategic partnership that included key geoeconomic areas such as digital and green shipping corridors3.
The dialogue fed into wider scrutiny regarding Europe’s role in the Indo-Pacific in general and in Southeast Asia in particular. While there have been questions about the pace and delivery of the EU’s Global Gateway strategy, in addition to outcomes with ASEAN this week, the grouping also just announced a new package with the Pacific Islands dubbed one of the biggest-ever investment deals with the region during a first of its kind business forum4. More broadly, speculation has also continued about how China and the Indo-Pacific will factor into the state of the union speech set to be delivered by EU President Ursula von der Leyen on September 10. Earlier this week, one official reinforced the fact that plans were on track to deliver on a range of trade deals with Southeast Asian states as part of Brussels’ cross-regional pacts, with agreements also presented this week with both MERCOSUR and Mexico5.
Select Key Recent Geopolitical and Geoeconomic Developments Amid New Ministerial Kickoff
Why It Matters
The developments also pointed to future policy pathways to watch across key areas with regional and global implications (see originally generated ASEAN Wonk table below on notable areas to monitor and additional specifics. Paying subscribers can read on for more on what to expect and future implications in the rest of the “Why It Matters” and “Where It’s Headed” sections, along with paid-only sections of the newsletter as usual).
Future Policy Pathways to Watch, Alongside Major Priorities and Key Domains
