New China Thailand Space Pacts Put Security Cooperation in Focus
Plus first pre-trilateral drills; new special envoy; big new sub deal; coming trade pact; China EV inroads; cross-border payment architecture and much more.
Greetings to new readers and welcome all to the latest edition of the weekly ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief! If you haven’t already, you can upgrade to a paid subscription for $5 a month/$50 a year below to receive full posts by inserting your email address and then selecting an annual or monthly option. You can visit this page for more on pricing for institutions, groups as well as discounts.
For this iteration of ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief, we are looking at:
Assessing the geopolitical and geoeconomic significance of new China-Thailand space agreements and regional and global implications;
Mapping of regional developments, including joint drills ahead of the first-ever U.S.-Japan-Philippines trilateral and a new Myanmar special envoy;
Charting evolving geopolitical, geoeconomic and security trends such as on a big new submarine deal; coming trade pact and Asia’s post-pandemic growth trajectory;
Tracking and analysis of industry developments and quantitative indicators including China’s EV inroads in Southeast Asia; evolving cross-border payment architecture and shifting startup investment trends;
And much more! ICYMI, check out our analysis earlier this week on Indonesian President-elect Prabowo Subianto’s first post-election Asia tour which included stops in China and Japan.
This Week’s WonkCount: 1,802 words (~9 minutes)
Pre-Trilateral South China Sea Drills; New Myanmar Envoy & More
Asia’s Evolving Growth Story; Elite Opinion Snapshot & Big Coming 2025 Peace Test
“While output per capita has surpassed pre-pandemic levels in more of the larger economies, Myanmar, Papua New Guinea, Timor-Leste and several Pacific Island countries are still struggling to get back to pre-pandemic levels,” observes the latest report on East Asia’s economic trajectory by the World Bank (link).
Annual Evolution of GDP Per Capita in Select Regional Economies Compared to 2019
“China has edged past the US to become the prevailing choice (50.5%) if the region were forced to align itelf in the ongoing US-China rivalry,” concludes the latest iteration of an annual elite survey conducted by the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute. Though the U.S.-China contest question has continued to make the most headlines, the survey also notes other key insights including the importance of the Israel-Hamas conflict as a top geopolitical concern (with 46.5 percent ranking it as a concern relative to 39.9 percent for the South China Sea) and generally positive feelings about the ongoing direction of the ASEAN Digital Economy Framework Agreement (a combined 63.1 percent see it as significantly contributing to raising digital capabilities or enhancing cooperation in digitial trade integration activities) (link).
Responses to 2024 ISEAS Survey Question: “If ASEAN Were Forced to Align Itself With One of the Strategic Rivals, Which Should it Choose?”
“A huge amount of money and power is at stake, and the lead-up to the elections, if not carefully managed, has the potential for serious violence…,” notes a new report by the Institute for Policy Analysis of Conflict on the southern Philippines ahead of key polls set for next year. The report calls on parties to take various steps to prevent deadly conflict, including the assignment of additional security forces; responding to threats and disinformation on social media; as well as greater integration of perspectives between the Mindanao mainland and the island provinces of Basilan, Sulu and Tawi-Tawi (link).
New China Thailand Space Pacts Put Security Cooperation in Focus
What’s Behind It
China and Thailand inked two new pacts related to space cooperation. The new pacts were signed by both sides on April 5 and cover the exploration of outer space as well as lunar research1. The two countries also noted specific areas of collaboration that they will look to target in the coming years in a domain witnessing increasing strategic competition, technological change and lingering challenges in areas such as regulation and norm development2.
Select Developments Related to Thailand Space Cooperation with External Partners
The development marks the latest sign of Bangkok’s growing cooperation with Beijing as well as attempted inroads in Thailand’s space ambitions. As noted before on ASEAN Wonk, while Thailand is a U.S. treaty ally, that has not prevented Bangkok from continuing to pursue strategic cooperation with Beijing. On space, Thailand has cooperated with countries including France, South Korea and the United States under an updated space strategy rolled out in late 2022 (see snapshot graphic above)3. Yet aspects of Thailand’s cooperation with China have gained attention. These include data exchanges under China’s Lancang-Mekong Cooperation mechanism and cooperation with the International Lunar Research Station (ILRS) China has promoted with Russia, making Thailand an early mover (with countries like Pakistan, South Africa and Venezuela)4. Thailand has pursued cooperation with NASA but remains outside U.S.-led initiatives for now like the Artemis Accords to promote norms and peaceful collaboration5. The U.S. defense establishment also already recognizes space partnerships as a conduit through which Beijing and Moscow seek to gain a competitive edge over Washington6.
Why It Matters
The pacts indicate what to watch in cooperation between China and Thailand on space as well as adjacent functional areas which would have wider regional and global impact (see the table below for key areas of collaboration to watch, along with the rest of the two written sections on “Why It Matters” as well as “Where It’s Headed").
Areas of China-Thailand Space Cooperation to Watch and Wider Upcoming Implications
