Thailand's US-China Balance in Focus Amid China-US Bangkok Talks
Plus 2024 ASEAN diplomacy kickoff; South China Sea claimant cooperation; new investment screening chatter; diverging cyber risk futures & much more.
Greetings to new readers and welcome all to the latest edition of the weekly ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief! If you haven’t already, you can upgrade to a paid subscription below to receive our full posts.
For this iteration of ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief, we are looking at:
Assessing the geopolitical significance of Thailand’s high-level engagements with both the United States and China amid the hype over U.S.-China talks held in Bangkok;
Mapping of regional developments including South China Sea claimant cooperation and 2024 ASEAN diplomacy kickoff under Laos’ chair year;
Charting evolving security, geopolitical and geoeconomic trends such as scenarios for U.S.-China competition futures and the evolution of Mekong criminal networks in Southeast Asia;
Tracking and analysis of industry developments and quantitative indicators including new investment screening chatter, diverging cyber risk futures; trade pact talk, maritime asset resourcing and more;
And much more! ICYMI, check out our review on a new book that assesses Vietnam’s future geoeconomic and geopolitical outlook.
WonkCount: 1,722 words (~8 minutes reading time)
South China Sea Claimant Cooperation in the Spotlight; 2024 ASEAN Diplomacy Kicks off & More
US-China Future Scenarios; Evolving Mekong Criminal Networks & Press Freedom Outlook
“Five key themes of the current state emerged…distrust, differing approaches to engagement, misunderstanding, frictions related to Cross-Strait relations, and domestic politics,” notes a new multi-stakeholder scenario-building exercise on U.S.-China relations featuring former officials, investors, academics and NGO professionals. The four scenarios are: Drift; War; Blocs and Networks (link).
U.S.-China Report Four Scenario Comparison Chart
“[T]he proliferation of online gambling platforms, e-junkets and both illegal and underregulated cryptocurrency exchanges in Southeast Asia has changed the game, allowing for faster anonymized movement of funds” in sprawling scam networks in the Mekong subregion, argues a new UN report on casinos, money laundering and transnational organized crime. The report assesses regional trends and details several case studies with connections across the wider subregion and including China, Myanmar and Taiwan (link).
UN Report Mapping of Locations of Known or Reported Compounds and Related Special Zones in Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar, 2023
“Asia remains the region with the highest number of journalists in jail. Outside of the leading jailers of China, Myanmar, and Vietnam, journalists were also behind bars in India, Afghanistan, and the Philippines,” notes the latest iteration of an annual census released by the Committee to Protect Journalists on journalists jailed around the world (link).
CPJ’s List of Leading Countries with Jailed Journalists in Prison Census 2023
Thailand's US-China Balance in Focus Amid China-US Bangkok Talks
What’s Behind It
Thailand’s U.S.-China balance was in the spotlight this week, with the country holding separate high-level engagements with Beijing and Washington amid U.S.-China talks in Bangkok. Thai leaders met with delegations led by China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi and U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, which shed light on the state of both relationships1. This was apart from Sullivan-Wang talks that dominated headlines, after the summit between Presidents Joe Biden and Xi Jinping held on the sidelines of APEC meetings in San Francisco last November2. ASEAN Wonk understands from sources that while Wang Yi’s planned visit to Thailand had provided an opportunity for a meeting, confirmation of logistics in Bangkok came together only towards the end of the work week, which required some adjustment3.
Timeline Snapshot of Select Thailand-US-China Weekend Engagements in Bangkok
The high-level engagements are the latest in a series of developments that put the focus on Thailand’s evolving U.S.-China balance under Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, and his foreign policy approach more generally. While Thailand is a U.S. treaty ally, the past military government initially drifted towards China following Washington’s response to the May 2014 military coup4. Since taking office last September, Srettha has advocated a foreign policy vision of proactive diplomacy to counter suggestions that Thailand is lagging its neighbors and is too consumed by its domestic politics5. Yet the key question is where Thailand will land on its ties with China and the United States. Thus far, beyond visits to China and the United States and a focus on some economic initiatives previously noted on ASEAN Wonk, we have yet to see an overall approach cohere.
Why It Matters
China utilized its interactions with Thailand in Bangkok to make tangible progress on cooperation, with Washington attempting to build momentum for greater engagement as well6. Though these dynamics may have been overshadowed somewhat by the focus on U.S.-China talks in Bangkok, they are important datapoints for Thailand’s evolving approach to both powers under Srettha’s leadership (see for example the table below for a brief snapshot of key recent pacts inked by China with Thailand)7.