China US Drills, Underwater Vision Top ASEAN Defense Meets
Plus APEC geoeconomic update; new sidelines minilateral launch; rare earth pushback; next high-speed rail datapoint; delayed ban framework and much, much more.
Greetings to new readers and welcome all to the latest edition of the weekly ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief! If you haven’t already, you can upgrade to a paid subscription for $5 a month/$50 a year below to receive full posts by inserting your email address and then selecting an annual or monthly option. You can visit this page for more on pricing for institutions, groups as well as discounts. For current paid subscribers, please make sure you’re hitting the “view entire message” prompt if it comes up at the end of a post to see the full version.
For this iteration of ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief, we are looking at:
Assessing the geopolitical and geoeconomic significance of new deliverables involving key major powers at the recent round of ASEAN defense meetings;
Mapping of regional developments, such as a new Indo-Pacific partnership upgrade and intraregional armed withdrawal inroads;
Charting evolving geopolitical, geoeconomic and security trends such as new sidelines minilateral launch; delayed ban framework and division gaps;
Tracking and analysis of industry developments and quantitative indicators including critical minerals pushback; next high-speed rail datapoint; quiet cross-continental sectoral agreement and more;
And much more! ICYMI, check out the latest episode of our ASEAN Wonk Podcast published earlier this week on border wars and small state lens in Southeast Asia and its wider regional and global implications.
This Week’s WonkCount: 2,178 words (~9 minutes)
New Partnership Upgrade; Armed Withdrawal Inroads & More
APEC Geoeconomic Update; Middling Class Woes & Sectoral Futures
“Trade momentum this year has been encouraging, but much was driven in part by businesses rushing to export before new restrictions could take effect,” notes an update from the Policy Support Unit of the Asia- Pacific Economic Cooperation forum (APEC) in the press release for the latest iteration of report. The report projects that goods export growth is expected to slow to around 1.1 percent next year while growth previously forecasted to be 3.0 percent in the APEC region is now projected to reach 3.1 percent in 2025 (link).
Projected GDP Growth In Various Regions
“Realistically, fiscal space is limited. With deficits capped and competing priorities, Indonesia cannot simply spend its way out of the problem“ argues a piece about the economic anxieties faced by Indonesia’s middle class written by the country’s former finance minister. This is in the context of protests against the government over the state of the economy and the reform measures taken. The piece offers economic inequality and perceived lack of government safety measures as some reasons for national outrage (link).
“Solar and wind account for 96% of all renewable capacity additions through 2030 because they are the most affordable options to add new capacity in almost every country in the world, and policies in more than 130 countries continue to support them, ” notes a recent analysis of global renewable energy trends published by the International Energy Agency. The report notes specifically that policy implementation measures in the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam were highlighted for Southeast Asia (link).
Changes In Renewable Capacity In Selected Regions Through 2030
China US Drills, Underwater Vision Top ASEAN Defense Meets
What’s Behind It
Southeast Asian states publicized the adoption of new frameworks on undersea cables as well as the expansion of major power involvement at the ASEAN Defense Ministers Meeting (ADMM) and the ADMM-Plus1. The global stakes of these developments recognized by policymakers were highlighted by one Southeast Asian official who separately noted that the cutting of just four submarine cables in the Red Sea last year resulted in compromising of more than two-thirds of major data traffic between Asia and Europe2. The meetings took place amid other key meetings, including the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum in South Korea. Officials also had to contend with fallout from U.S. deals struck at ASEAN summitry highlighted last week on ASEAN Wonk.
Select Recent Key Geopolitical Developments Amid ASEAN Defense Engagements
The meetings saw new defense deliverables with major powers and among the grouping itself. Unsurprisingly, the focus was on some of the datapoints reiterated by U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth before his next Southeast Asia stop in Vietnam such as a new Philippines task force amid South China Sea developments3. But there were a list of security-related inroads with key powers apart from the United States as well. To take just one example (see insights below for much more), there was publicization of earlier discussions around the second iteration of a ASEAN-China maritime exercise set for 2027 when Singapore will be holding the annually-rotating ASEAN chairmanship, following the already scheduled ASEAN-US exercise publicized for December4.
Why It Matters
The inroads also point to priority datapoints to watch with wider regional as well as global implications (see originally generated ASEAN Wonk table below on notable areas to monitor and additional specifics. Paying subscribers can read on for more on what to expect and future implications in the rest of the “Why It Matters” and “Where It’s Headed” sections, along with paid-only sections of the newsletter as usual).
Newly Announced Deliverables and Datapoints, Alongside Major Partners and Select Key Domains
