First Space Summit Headlines Biggest Asia Airshow Amid Deals
Plus new historic treaty; quiet new China geoeconomic grouping; trade green light; infrastructure deal launch; immediate ban enforcement and much, much more.
Greetings to new readers and welcome all to the latest edition of the weekly ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief! If you haven’t already, you can upgrade to a paid subscription for $5 a month/$50 a year below to receive full posts by inserting your email address and then selecting an annual or monthly option. You can visit this page for more on pricing for institutions, groups as well as discounts. For current paid subscribers, please make sure you’re hitting the “view entire message” prompt if it comes up at the end of a post to see the full version.
For this iteration of ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief, we are looking at:
Assessing the geopolitical and geoeconomic significance of first-of-its-kind new space summit headlining Asia’s biggest airshow amid new deals;
Mapping of regional developments, including new “historic” treaty signing and Mekong summit diplomacy;
Charting evolving geopolitical, geoeconomic and security trends such as quiet China win; new trade green light and EV expansion strategy rollout;
Tracking and analysis of industry developments and quantitative indicators including infrastructure deal launch; immediate ban enforcement; military presence distribution shift; and more;
And much more! ICYMI, check out our ASEAN Wonk review earlier this week of a new book with a rare insider look by an ex-official on how geoeconomic tools are utilized in economic warfare and prospects for the Indo-Pacific.
This Week’s WonkCount: 2,327 words (~ 10 minutes)
New Historic Treaty; Summit Diplomacy & More
Cross-Strait Fallout; Asia Geoeconomic Rebalancing & Flashpoint Futures
“It would be a mistake to simply assume that the People’s Republic of China would prevail in a conflict over Taiwan,” according to a series of perspectives published by the German Marshall Fund on the consequences for China of a failed military operations directed against Taiwan. The perspectives examine two scenarios designated as “minor conflict” and “major war” with attention to possible international actions directed against Beijing (link).
Possible Actions, Likelihoods and Costs Directed Against China in Minor Conflict or Major War vs. Taiwan
“ASEAN+3 is no longer merely the world’s factory…it has become the world’s largest market,” argues a new commentary over at The Business Times. The piece showcases several datapoints regarding shifting geoeconomic dynamics, including scenario analysis suggesting declines in Chinese domestic demand affect the rest of ASEAN+3 economies — ASEAN plus China, Japan and South Korea — around five times more than it would have two decades ago (link).
“In nearly all foreseeable scenarios, Myanmar will have a high degree of political fragmentation…there is, however, conceivable variation along two dimensions,” notes a collection of perspectives on Myanmar futures published by the Asia-Pacific Foundation. The two dimensions are center-periphery coordination and subnational institutionalization (link).
Four Variants of Post-Conflict Myanmar Futures
First Space Summit Headlines Biggest Asia Airshow Amid Deals
What’s Behind It
A first space summit launch of its kind headlined Asia’s biggest airshow this week amid geopolitical chatter and deal talk1. The developments recentered defense-related conversations on convening within the region alongside security competition that officials have admitted is already spreading into the outer space domain, with public manifestations in Southeast Asia including speculation surrounding the level of collaboration by individual countries such as Malaysia and Thailand with the U.S.-led Artemis Accords or the China-linked International Lunar Research Station2. As has been the case with past iterations, beyond metrics like aggregate participation numbers and country pavilions, geopolitical storylines were driven by scrutiny on more specific datapoints. This year, these included the level of China’s participation relative to the United States or the shifting shape of defense deals with powers such as Indonesia3.
Select Key Recent Defense-Related Developments in Southeast Asia
The development showcased the intensifying geopolitical and geoeconomic competition. Apart from the spotlight on major powers such as China or the United States, other country-specific developments were at play, including Singapore’s anchor announcement that it would establish a new and designated national space agency later this year focused on upping competitiveness across several lines of effort4. This came on the heels of ongoing collaboration involving other powers that continue to be advanced into 2026 with Southeast Asian states, including more minilateral-like networking efforts by the European Union5. As one official succinctly put it, “what was once the exclusive domain of superpowers and aerospace giants has now become a more accessible frontier for nations and businesses worldwide.”6
Why It Matters
The dynamics also spotlighted datapoints to watch with wider implications (see originally generated ASEAN Wonk table below on notable areas to monitor and additional specifics. Paying subscribers can read on for more on what to expect and future implications in the rest of the “Why It Matters” and “Where It’s Headed” sections, along with paid-only sections of the newsletter as usual).
New Deal Datapoints to Watch, Select Cooperation Areas and Key Countries
