China Touts Giant Mekong Scam 2025 Inroads Amid Challenges
Plus OECD chatter; new pact relaunch; first AI hub target; expanding geoeconomic minilateral; Kremlin infra hype; coming tariff fallout; and much, much more.
Greetings to new readers and welcome all to the latest edition of the weekly ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief! If you haven’t already, you can upgrade to a paid subscription for $5 a month/$50 a year below to receive full posts by inserting your email address and then selecting an annual or monthly option. You can visit this page for more on pricing for institutions, groups as well as discounts. For current paid subscribers, please make sure you’re hitting the “view entire message” prompt if it comes up at the end of a post to see the full version.
For this iteration of ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief, we are looking at:
Assessing the geopolitical and geoeconomic significance of China’s touted giant Mekong scam inroads amid continued challenges;
Mapping of regional developments, such as fresh OECD chatter; new partnership upgrade; and Indo-Pacific summitry;
Charting evolving geopolitical, geoeconomic and security trends such as new pact relaunch; first AI hub target and Kremlin infra hype;
Tracking and analysis of industry developments and quantitative indicators including new international exchange; expanding geoeconomic minilateral; coming tariff fallout and more;
And much more! ICYMI, check out our review of a new book by an ex-official on Indo-Pacific militaries and the future of U.S.-China competition.
This Week’s WonkCount: 2,125 words (~10 minutes)
Fresh OECD Chatter; New Partnership Upgrade & More
Regional Risk Futures; Resistance Check & Powering Growth
“Risks to the EAP outlook remain tilted to the downside and centered on adverse global policy shifts,” observes the new outlook for East Asia and the Pacific published by the World Bank. The report identifies a range of risks including shifting trade policies, weaker-than-expected growth in China, rising conflict in other parts of the world and more frequent climate-change-related natural disasters (link).
East Asia and Pacific Country Forecasts
“The NUG has also established a new liaison office in Timor-Leste, and we have engaged with key governments during visits to Japan, Korea and Australia to advocate for Myanmar’s cause,” notes the Myanmar National Unity Government’s Foreign Minister Zin Mar Aung in a wide-ranging new interview with The Irrawaddy. The interview addresses a number of issues including ASEAN’s evolving approach to the Myanmar issue, the December meetings convened by Thailand and potential changes inside Myanmar in 2025 (link).
“Power grids are struggling to keep up with electricity demand, especially given their aging infrastructure,” in areas like Southeast Asia, argues a new research report by global consulting firm Kearney. The report identifies several wildcards that could shape the global outlook, including the evolution of the Global South and a new age of super-empowered individuals. It also reiterates that Southeast Asia has been a top beneficiary of the so-called “China Plus One” movement in supply chains (link).
Relative Estimated Ages of Power Grids By Region
China Touts Giant Mekong Scam 2025 Inroads Amid Challenges
What’s Behind It
China touted major inroads in addressing giant scam networks after a senior meeting convening Mekong countries. ASEAN Wonk understands that the meeting, while notable, is in fact a delayed engagement previously discussed by officials as part of cooperation under the wider Lancang-Mekong Cooperation (LMC) framework that China has pushed in the region1. The recent flurry of activity on the issue, including a publicized meeting between China’s foreign minister Wang Yi and Southeast Asian representatives in Beijing, comes after the high-profile case of missing China actor Wang Xing, who was recovered from being trafficked across the Thailand-Myanmar border2. The issue of giant scam networks was also discussed at recently concluded ASEAN digital ministers’ meetings in Bangkok given that cyber scams have had impacts across member states3. By one estimate, cyber scams targeting victims in East and Southeast Asia alone within wider transnational organized criminal networks have amounted to up to $37 billion, affecting hundreds of thousands of lives across borders4.
Key Recent Related Developments on Giant Scam Networks in Southeast Asia in January 2025
The engagement was also the first major meeting of the China-powered Mekong mechanism of 2025, with Beijing looking to make long-held inroads. Officials privately admit that challenges remain even on basic Mekong law enforcement cooperation, with closed door — and at times public — barb-trading about how to manage well-known issues. This belies the suggestion that major inroads are being made via periodically released metrics such as mass arrests as we saw from Chinese state media following the meeting this past week which included officials from China, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand and Vietnam5. Subregional Mekong mechanisms are also only one pathway through which this challenge is being addressed. Indeed, the past few weeks alone have seen a series of unilateral, bilateral and trilateral initiatives on this front, including new coordinating centers and consultation mechanisms6.
Why It Matters
The development also highlighted key datapoints and details in China’s evolving agenda for 2025 on cooperating with Southeast Asian states in the Mekong subregion on this front (see originally generated ASEAN Wonk table below on notable datapoints and additional specifics. Paying subscribers can read on for more on what to expect and future implications in the rest of the “Why It Matters” and “Where It’s Headed” sections, along with paid-only sections of the newsletter as usual).
Future Datapoints to Watch in China and Southeast Asia Mekong Diplomacy, Along With Select Major Priorities And Key Domains
