Review: Trump Return and Future of US China Military Competition
New book by ex-official reveals how Indo-Pacific military balance is likely to evolve and implications of shifting "tides of fortune" for the region and world.
A new book by a former official reveals how the Indo-Pacific military balance is likely to shift in the coming years and the implications of shifting “tides of fortune” for major powers, the region and the wider world.
WonkCount: 1,794 words (~8 minutes)
Review: Trump Return and Future of US-China Military Competition
Context
When U.S. President Donald Trump declared Washington would “again build the strongest military the world has ever seen,” in his inaugural address, the objective belied the question among regional observers about how this military power would be deployed, particularly in the Indo-Pacific theater and in ongoing U.S.-China competition1. Questions on the military balance linger even as countries reinforce strategies of what Philippine Foreign Secretary Enrique Manalo characterized to a regional forum earlier this month as “resilience amid global winds of change” in a more multipolar world relative to Cold War bipolarity2. These dynamics are also only part of a series of considerations for countries in Southeast Asia and the wider Indo-Pacific about engaging the Trump administration during its second term in office and the opportunities and challenges therein (see ASEAN Wonk graphic below on select recent developments tied to ASEAN states).
Key Recent Southeast Asia-Related Geopolitical and Geoeconomic Developments Thus Far in January 2025
A new book Tides of Fortune by scholar and ex-official Zack Cooper provides useful insights on the future of US-China military competition and the shifting Indo-Pacific defense landscape3. The book sheds light on these dynamics based on an analysis of current trends in U.S.-China security ties and historical patterns in military power. In doing so, it adds to a series of recent books that touch on the subject, including ones reviewed here on ASEAN Wonk. These include Elbridge Colby’s A Strategy of Denial — which will likely receive renewed interest given his appointment as Trump’s undersecretary of defense for policy and debates on the effectiveness of denial strategies — Jeffrey Ding’s Technology and the Rise of Great Powers, Rush Doshi’s The Long Game, Kevin Rudd’s The Avoidable War and Taylor Fravel’s Active Defense4. Tides of Fortune runs just under 200 pages.
Analysis
The book projects the future of U.S.-China military competition and the wider implications for regions like Southeast Asia. Consistent with the book’s title — derived from a 1920 quote by the then future Japan Emperor Hirohito on riding “the tide of fortune” to national strength — Tides of Fortune argues that shifting power levels and power trends are likely to be decisive in determining the future contours of U.S.-China military competition. As such, even if relative power trends may be working against the United States relative to China — despite dynamic U.S.-China shifts along the way that defy a strictly linear trajectory — technological trends such as greater efficiency and cost-effectiveness of defense strategies relative to power projection approaches suggests that the odds could shift in Washington’s favor. “U.S. leaders have a fleeting opportunity to embrace new technologies and strategies that can stabilize the military balance in Asia,” the book notes before laying out the opportunities and challenges inherent in such an approach5. The book also usefully dives into ongoing debates familiar to close watchers of defense policy, including the distinctions made in Washington and key Indo-Pacific capitals between denial and defense strategies and implications for mobility and expendability of military systems.
Tides of Fortune also forecasts the outlook for U.S.-China military competition in key areas that are important to watch and will be of interest to scholars, policymakers and businesses alike (see originally generated ASEAN Wonk table below for a summary of these derived priority areas, along with major datapoints to watch and notable details. Paying subscribers can also read the rest of the “Analysis” section and “Implications” section looking at how these dynamics play out in the future)