New Australia ASEAN Summit Inroads Spotlight Future Trajectory
New Australia ASEAN Summit Inroads Spotlight Future Trajectory
Vietnam upgrade, new investments and key bilateral sector boosts headline outcomes amid AUKUS and China rhetoric as well as South China Sea tensions.
New outcomes from the ASEAN-Australia special summit this week signal where ties may be headed in the coming months and years amid wider geopolitical and geoeconomic dynamics.
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New Australia ASEAN Summit Inroads Spotlight Future Trajectory
Background
The special summit marked an inflection point in the current Australian government’s efforts to intensify engagement in Southeast Asia. As we observed on ASEAN Wonk ahead of the summit, the government of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has consistently put strengthening ties with Southeast Asia at the core of its foreign policy outlook that sees Australia as an invested middle power contributing to the twin pillars of peace and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific1. In announcing a special summit commemorating the 50th anniversary of Australia’s status as ASEAN’s first dialogue partner in Jakarta last September, Albanese said future steps to address Canberra’s underinvestment in some areas in Southeast Asia would reinforce the fact that “we will continue to prioritize our engagement.”2 This is particularly the case on the economic side, where a new strategy report released last year soberly noted that Southeast Asia only accounted for 3 percent of Australia’s overall foreign direct investment mix (just 0.8 percent of that was distributed across the nine ASEAN countries other than Singapore and a single Bayu-Undan gas facility in East Timor)3. This comes at a time when ASEAN’s other dialogue partners are also upping their engagement in recognition of the region’s growing significance. Cases in point include Japan’s deliverable-filled commemorative summit in December and the just concluded twin European Union ASEAN and Indo-Pacific meets in February.
Select Key Developments At and Around 2024 ASEAN-Australia Special Summit
The summit sent a clear signal about Australia’s strengths as a partner for Southeast Asia, despite some expected noise and unexpected developments. The Australian government invested significant effort in strategic communications crafting the summit narrative around four multidimensional tracks — business; climate and energy; maritime; and emerging leaders — utilizing several channels (including an official downloadable summit app) and featuring non-governmental stakeholders like businesses and regional experts4. This approach is critical to highlight Australia’s strengths as a democracy with an engaged community of thinkers and counter lingering perceptions in some circles of Canberra’s outlook lying too far outside of Asia or too weighted towards the U.S. alliance system. As is the case with events of this type, storylines around regional developments and rhetoric continued to swirl amid engagements (see above timeline). The summit took place as Chinese vessels injured Philippine boat crew and after the opening of a Thai parliamentary session on Myanmar5. There was also focus on the spectrum of U.S.-China views, from Singapore’s welcome note to Australia subs to Malaysia’s caution about “not being dictated” on China6. This is despite the fact that the former is merely a reiteration of Singapore’s stance consistent with its overall outlook and the latter belies the reality that Malaysia’s leaders are also contending with Beijing’s maritime assertiveness.
Significance
New headline outcomes have the potential to strengthen the foundation of Australia’s commitment to Southeast Asia, even though some summit developments also spotlighted challenges at play. Formal upgrades to ties with Laos and Vietnam attested to the breadth of Australia’s diplomatic wins, particularly as they come on the heels of 2023 upgrades with Brunei and the Philippines. Apart from modest funding boosts in the maritime, climate and education realms, Australia announced new measures to up its economic game in Southeast Asia, including over a billion U.S. dollars for an infrastructure facility as well as deal teams, landing pads, business champions and visa policies7. These steps signal Canberra is intent on following through on recommendations from its economic strategy report. That said, the summit also produced reminders that building on its approach will not be without challenges — from reports of softened language in the Melbourne Declaration outcome document on areas like the South China Sea amid fears of backsliding to Thai views on Australian fuel efficiency standards which filtered into the public domain8. Albanese admitted Canberra’s biggest challenge in competing with others in engaging Southeast Asia is ensuring it remains optimistic and seizes opportunities rather than “shrink in on ourselves.”9 “I think our biggest rival is ourselves,” he said10.
Beyond headline regional commitments, Australia and Southeast Asian states also announced new, significant bilateral deliverables across a range of key sectors that point to where both sides see future priorities for ties (see table below for notable summit outcomes related to key bilateral countries, future sectoral cooperation areas to watch and notable, new announced inroads).
Major New Announced Country Inroads During ASEAN-Australia Summit-Related Engagements
