Review: Is Vietnam Ready for a Future China War?
Amid China encirclement fears, new book examines military modernization of the Vietnam People's Army and its implications for Southeast Asia and the world.
Amid China encirclement fears, new book examines the military modernization of the Vietnam People's Army and implications for the Indo-Pacific and the world.
WonkCount: 1,758 words (~7 minutes)
Review: Is Vietnam Ready for a Future China War?
Context
“Vietnam is set to build a revolutionary, regular, elite and modern army,” Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh told an audience at the latest iteration of the country’s international defense expo which Hanoi has tried to embed on the calendar of regional security exhibitions1. While these expos offer watchers a rare public spotlight into Vietnam’s defense diplomacy, they leave deeper questions around aspects such as doctrine and planning unresolved. Those questions are not unimportant considering that Vietnam has been undertaking one of Asia’s most ambitious military modernizations and previously fought off three of the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council to win and then preserve its independence. Indeed, the country’s approach to challenges in its security environment are closely watched, be it China naval base fears in neighboring Cambodia first publicized in 2019 or Sino-Vietnamese tensions that flared after Beijing positioned a giant oil rig in Vietnam’s exclusive economic zone back in 20142.
Select Recent Security-Related Developments in Southeast Asia
A new book The Vietnam People’s Army by scholar Zachary Abuza addresses the critical question of how prepared Vietnam’s military is for future contingencies, including a potential conflict with China3. In doing so, it contributes a rare addition to works on Vietnam’s military, including historical accounts such as Douglas Pike’s People’s Army of Vietnam and Carl Thayer’s The Vietnam People’s Army Under Doi Moi along with related chapters on geopolitics and geoeconomics in more recent edited volumes reviewed on ASEAN Wonk4. As Abuza rightly notes, while Vietnam’s evolving security outlook deserves wider attention in its own right, the country also remains one of the world’s likeliest sites for a future conflict with China beyond the alarm around Taiwan expressed in some recent works. “Should China seek a relatively controlled conflict, it will likely be some sort of manufactured crisis against a Vietnamese-held feature,” Abuza argues before going on to assess the extent to which Vietnam’s military is prepared for a range of future scenarios5.
Analysis
Vietnam People’s Army forecasts future military scenarios in the coming years and their implications (see originally-generated ASEAN Wonk table below for a summary of scenario implications, along with major datapoints and variables. Paying subscribers can also read the rest of the “Analysis” section and “Implications” section looking at how these dynamics play out in the future).
Future Scenario Implications to Watch, Including Key Military Datapoints and Major Variables
