Review: Is Vietnam Truly Asia's Rising Star and a Tiger Economy?
Review: Is Vietnam Truly Asia's Rising Star and a Tiger Economy?
A look at where Vietnam's geoeconomic future may be headed in coming decades amid hype over its status as Asia's rising star and next tiger economy.
A new book assesses Vietnam’s future geoeconomic and geopolitical trajectory, its effects and what to watch in the coming decades out to 2050 and beyond.
WonkCount: 1,469 words (~7 minutes)
Review: Vietnam's Future Growth Story: An Asia Tiger Economy?
Context
“Our region’s peace, stability and prosperity cannot be taken for granted…this region has become a theater for strategic competition,” Vietnam’s foreign minister soberly noted this week in a major speech in Washington, D.C1. His remarks were the latest public articulation from high-ranking Vietnamese officials about the challenge of keeping the country’s growth and party legitimacy intact amid rising geopolitical pressures and domestic changes (see a snapshot of recent geoeconomic and geopolitical developments below). We saw this at play again over the past week with the spotlight on follow-up talks after a historic upgrade in U.S. ties; an invite to Russian President Vladimir Putin amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war; as well as speculation over leadership changes and foreign investment implications after the second presidential resignation in a year2. More broadly, Vietnam’s growth trajectory being watched closely in the region amid trends such as the race for post-pandemic growth in Southeast Asia and shifting value chains amid hyped “China +1” strategies.
Select Notable Vietnam-Related Geoeconomic and Geopolitical Developments (September 2023 — )
A new book Vietnam: Asia’s Rising Star by Vietnam watchers and practitioners Brook Taylor and Sam Korsmoe provides granular insights for those interested in Asia’s evolving growth story in general and Vietnam’s future geoeconomic trajectory in particular3. The book analyzes the ingredients behind successful growth stories of Asia tiger economies since the 1980s, their relevance today as well as the extent to which this applies to Vietnam’s future given its traits, risks and opportunities4. The insights are useful amid the recent stream of books that assess Vietnam’s trajectory. These include ones we have reviewed over at ASEAN Wonk in recent months. The twelve main chapters of Vietnam: Asia’s Rising Star run 219 pages.
Analysis
Vietnam: Asia’s Rising Star provides a systematic approach to assessing Vietnam’s economic potential that goes beyond the “next tiger economy” hype. Instead of simply accepting Vietnam as a tiger economy at face value, the authors test the proposition by evaluating how the country fares across specific metrics and comparing Vietnam’s growth story with those of previous Asian tigers South Korea and Taiwan5. The book’s narrative effectively blends granular statistical research with innovative storytelling and anecdotes familiar to those who have frequented the country6. This includes illustrating the country’s history through key streets named after wars for independence to the mixed fortunes of Vietnam’s state-owned enterprises that preceded the current international forays of firms such as VinFast7.
The book also sieves out key ingredients (or “special sauce”) for tiger economy-like success in countries like Vietnam out to 2050 which would be useful to future-looking observers across industries. The book specifies nine ingredients, with notable cases and future risks and opportunities to watch (see table below for a snapshot of these important areas, and the rest of the Analysis section as well as the Implications section for insights into what lies ahead and wider trends of interest).
Essential Tiger Economy Success Ingredients vs. Vietnam’s Current Status
