South China Sea Headlines ASEAN Maritime Security Dialogue
Plus summit fever; new artificial intelligence strategy; big digital ban; coming SEZ chatter; carbon agreement win; quiet defense deal and much, much more.
Greetings to new readers and welcome all to the latest edition of the weekly ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief! If you haven’t already, you can upgrade to a paid subscription for $5 a month/$50 a year below to receive full posts by inserting your email address and then selecting an annual or monthly option. You can visit this page for more on pricing for institutions, groups as well as discounts. For current paid subscribers, please make sure you’re hitting the “view entire message” prompt if it comes up at the end of a post to see the full version.
For this iteration of ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief, we are looking at:
Assessing geopolitical and geoeconomic significance of outcomes from a key maritime dialogue that ASEAN Wonk participated in in the Philippines;
Mapping of regional developments, including regional summit fever; soft power tour and Indian Ocean inroads;
Charting evolving geopolitical, geoeconomic and security trends such as new artificial intelligence strategy; SEZ chatter and quiet defense deal;
Tracking and analysis of industry developments and quantitative indicators including big digital ban; carbon agreement win and transcending geoeconomic traps;
And much more!
This Week’s WonkCount: 2,236 words (~10 minutes)
Indian Ocean Inroads; Regional Summit Fever; Soft Power & More
Evolving Military Strategy; Changing China School Balance & Global Crisis Management Pathways
"The primary reason for China’s shift to nonmilitary, especially gray-zone, coercion in the South China Sea is its perception of heightened geopolitical backlash since the early 2000s,” argues a piece on China’s regional military approach that is part of a newly-released edited volume on China’s People’s Liberation Army published by the National Bureau of Asian Research. The edited volume addresses a series of areas including force preparation toward Taiwan and growing security interest in the Pacific Islands (link).
“Non-Chinese pupil enrollment in Malaysia’s vernacular Chinese primary school has grown significantly…primarily driven by Malay pupils,” observes a new analysis published by the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute that delves deeper into a trend that has been visible in recent years. The analysis suggests that demographic shifts in these Chinese schools (known as SJKCs) — with 3-6% of non-Chinese pupil enrollment in the 1990s to approximately 20% by 2020 — present “a profound existential challenge” to the Chinese community as to whether to preserve cultural purity or adapt more to demographic realities (link).
Total Number of Designated Chinese Primary School (SJKC) Students by Demographic
“It will likely lead to more violence, more hostilities, more divisions and fragmentation within Myanmar,” warns a commentary published on the Devpolicy blog regarding the false illusion of elections as a pathway to addressing the Myanmar crisis based on remarks recently delivered at Australian National University. The post argues that inclusive internal dialogue with the involvement of a wide range of external neighbors and partners is the best bet for managing the ongoing situation, and that while a peace process must be “Myanmar-led and Myanmar-owned,” those who wish to see an end to the conflict “must do our part in action, not just in words” (link).
South China Sea Headlines ASEAN Maritime Security Dialogue
What’s Behind It
Officials from major Southeast Asian capitals spotlighted ways to address ongoing maritime challenges at a key new forum known as the Dialogue on ASEAN Maritime Security in the Philippines1. While sideline discussions covered a range of topics including the status of regional undersea domain initiatives, few conversations ASEAN Wonk had on the ground during the dialogue saw individuals not discussing how South China Sea dynamics will shape up in 2026 given that the Philippines will be chairing ASEAN and continues to find what one official referred to as “very little dots” of public support within Southeast Asia relative to those from global allies and partners that were reinforced following China’s firing of water cannons against Philippine vessels this past week2. Connections to wider regional and global events were reinforced by events during the week, including UN maritime security talks as well as a round of ASEAN summitry chaired by Malaysia ahead of an expected special address by Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim at the upcoming Shangri-La Dialogue defense forum — the first major speech by a sitting Malaysian prime minister since the keynote by ex-premier Najib Razak in 20113.
Recent and Related Regional Developments in the Maritime Security Space
The deliberations also addressed upcoming consequential regional developments at play in the maritime domain. Top officials previewed initiatives including steps expected to be taken towards the long-mulled institutionalization of the ASEAN Coast Guard Forum meetings — with such engagements still not having fully official and regularized status despite rising instances of gray zone coercion and growing regional coast guard forces in Southeast Asia4. More innovative suggestions were also made that sparked controversy, with one case in point being the potential institution of a timeline for the resolution of relevant outstanding boundary disputes among Southeast Asian states that could help foster more regional unity relative to China5.
Why It Matters
The new initiatives and developments at play also pointed to future datapoints to watch across key priority areas (see originally generated ASEAN Wonk table below on notable areas to monitor and additional specifics. Paying subscribers can read on for more on what to expect and future implications in the rest of the “Why It Matters” and “Where It’s Headed” sections, along with paid-only sections of the newsletter as usual).
Future Regional Datapoints to Watch, Key Priorities Emphasized and Major Countries
