Maritime Contestation Fears in Focus at IMDEX Asia 2025
Plus Kremlin diplomacy; new digital deal; energy ban talk; emerging rare earth signals; sectoral partnership birth; nuclear framework hopes and much, much more.
Greetings to new readers and welcome all to the latest edition of the weekly ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief! If you haven’t already, you can upgrade to a paid subscription for $5 a month/$50 a year below to receive full posts by inserting your email address and then selecting an annual or monthly option. You can visit this page for more on pricing for institutions, groups as well as discounts. For current paid subscribers, please make sure you’re hitting the “view entire message” prompt if it comes up at the end of a post to see the full version.
For this iteration of ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief, we are looking at:
Assessing the geopolitical and geoeconomic significance of a recent leading regional engagement spotlighting maritime contestation fears in the Indo-Pacific and potential pathways for navigating them;
Mapping of regional developments, including Kremlin diplomacy; coming strategic partnership and regional counter-protectionism sentiment;
Charting evolving geopolitical, geoeconomic and security trends such as energy ban talk; emerging rare earth signals and geoeconomic ambition reality check;
Tracking and analysis of industry developments and quantitative indicators including new digital deal; nuclear framework hopes and regional green futures;
And much more! ICYMI, check out our new ASEAN Wonk Podcast episode with a former APEC and ADB official on the coming Indo-Pacific geoeconomic agenda beyond ongoing tariff fallout.
This Week’s WonkCount: 2,217 words (~10 minutes)
Kremlin Diplomacy; Coming Strategic Partnership & More
Global South and US-China Competition; Solar Boom & Managing Post-Disaster Deception
"Even with the dismantling of USAID…both U.S. and Chinese project participants strongly affirmed the enduring value to both countries and to the Global South of sustained engagement and investment…” notes a new report by the Asia Society based on research and conversations with regional voices. The report’s conclusions include a focus on greater donor alignment to minimize duplication as well as sustaining research and partnerships in sectoral areas like agriculture and nutrition (link).
“The arrival of factories backed by Chinese solar heavyweights…has transformed Malaysia, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia into world-leading production and export hubs for a range of solar components,” observes a new article from Dialogue Earth on Southeast Asia’s so-called “solar boom.” The report notes that the aforementioned countries account for over 40% of global manufacturing capacity of solar modules outside China and around 20% of worldwide exports. Diversification prospects are also far from clear if viewed from a more global perspective — for instance, the European Union sources 97% of its solar equipment directly from China, which it has not subjected to tariffs (link).
Share Of Solar Photovoltaic Module Production By Country
"Disaster struck Myanmar. But so did deception,” according to a new commentary published over at The Irrawaddy following the deadly recent earthquake there. The piece argues that given the ruling junta’s exploitation of the earthquake for its own ends, the international community should engage with the junta with accountability so as not to enable this behavior, ensuring that all humanitarian access is unconditional and unrestricted and responding “in a way that reflects the realities on the ground and stands with the people of Myanmar, not their oppressors" (link).
Maritime Contestation Fears in Focus at IMDEX Asia 2025
What’s Behind It
Officials from major powers and key Indo-Pacific capitals highlighted ways to navigate ongoing maritime challenges this past week at Asia’s leading maritime defense event known as the International Maritime Defense Exhibition Asia (IMDEX Asia) in Singapore1. As is often the case with such events, ASEAN Wonk witnessed active and wide-ranging sideline discussions beyond the official activities — with participants scrutinizing everything from exhibitor narratives to U.S.-China soft power in the popular warship displays at Changi Naval Base. As usual, IMDEX Asia also saw the publicization of several new defense agreements. These included Singapore finalizing a contract for two additional submarines, a closely watched development for those looking for post-election security-related signals with forthcoming cabinet changes set to include a new defense minister2.
Recent Security-Related Developments in Southeast Asia
The engagement highlighted some of the ongoing maritime security initiatives at play within the region. Top officials previewed activities including a concept paper on critical undersea infrastructure (CUI) security co-sponsored by Brunei, Singapore and Thailand and an upcoming ASEAN Multilateral Naval Exercise (AMNEX) to be hosted by Malaysia later this year — just the third engagement of its kind to be held among Southeast Asian states since ASEAN was first established in 19673. References were also made to quiet, innovative efforts underway in various domains, including new strategies to manage the deployment of uncrewed systems and mapping the global ocean floor4.
Why It Matters
New initiatives and developments also pointed to datapoints to watch in the future across key domains amid evolving regional and global dynamics (see two originally generated ASEAN Wonk tables below on notable areas to monitor and additional specifics. Paying subscribers can read on for more on what to expect and future implications in the rest of the “Why It Matters” and “Where It’s Headed” sections, along with paid-only sections of the newsletter as usual).
Future Datapoints to Watch in Indo-Pacific Maritime Security, Along With Major Priority Areas and Key Countries (See Two Separate Tables Below)
