New G7 Maritime Security Pact Reveals Southeast Asia Stakes
Plus global security deal; coming trade deal chatter; China aviation inroads; quiet critical minerals agreement; energy giant futures and much, much more.
Greetings to new readers and welcome all to the latest edition of the weekly ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief! If you haven’t already, you can upgrade to a paid subscription for $5 a month/$50 a year below to receive full posts by inserting your email address and then selecting an annual or monthly option. You can visit this page for more on pricing for institutions, groups as well as discounts. For current paid subscribers, please make sure you’re hitting the “view entire message” prompt if it comes up at the end of a post to see the full version.
For this iteration of ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief, we are looking at:
Assessing the geopolitical and geoeconomic significance of Southeast Asia’s stakes amid a new G7 maritime security pact and wider regional implications;
Mapping of regional developments, such as a global security deal; twin diplomatic upgrades and fresh sanctions;
Charting evolving geopolitical, geoeconomic and security trends such as coming trade deal chatter; BRICS geoeconomic fallout and evolving energy giant futures;
Tracking and analysis of industry developments and quantitative indicators including China aviation inroads; quiet critical minerals agreement; disinformation surge concerns and more;
And much more! ICYMI, check out our review of a new book on Asia’s oldest minilateral and evolving regional futures.
This Week’s WonkCount: 2,147 words (~10 minutes)
Global Security Deal; Twin Upgrades; Fresh Sanctions & More
Forecasting Protracted Wars; Managing Conflict & Geoeconomic Flashpoint Navigation
“The enduring presence of carrier strike groups in both the East China Sea and the straits in Southeast Asia stressed the U.S. naval readiness that would be required to defeat a Chinese amphibious invasion of Taiwan,” notes a new report by the RAND Corporation which examines several scenarios of protracted war with China. The scenarios including those related to Taiwan, Russia, the Indian Ocean and a Southeast Asia proxy war involving Cambodia and Vietnam (link).
RAND Report Depiction of U.S. Blockade and Effects on Southeast Asia Straits
“Without such leadership, the fate of Thailand's Deep South will fall to those prepared to witness another 20 years of violence rather than countenance compromise,” warns an op-ed published in the Bangkok Post on the southern Thailand insurgency. The op-ed argues that despite the best efforts of some spoilers, recent insurgent attacks and leadership shown by Malaysia could be utilized to resume effectively suspended peace dialogue if decision makers “summon the courage to lead in the interest of resolving a conflict that has gone on too long and at too great a cost” (link).
“Six key geoeconomic watch points for ASEAN emerge from policies and pronouncements to date,” observes a new perspective by McKinsey & Company on how Southeast Asia can navigate a changing world that includes the new administration in the United States. The perspective identifies those six points as: scaled up direct tariffs; redirected supply chains; expanded export controls; evolving investment screening regimes; scrutinized critical infrastructure and shifting regional growth trajectories (link).
New G7 Maritime Security Pact Reveals Southeast Asia Stakes
What’s Behind It
The Group of Seven (G-7) countries met and released a new maritime security declaration that referenced Southeast Asia’s stakes in this domain amid ongoing developments1. The week before, the ASEAN Secretary-General had played down progress on a decades-long quest for a South China Sea code of conduct during an event in Phnom Penh2. As we have observed previously on ASEAN Wonk, complex intra-ASEAN dynamics have been playing out on this score, with the Philippines set to chair ASEAN in 2026 after Malaysia’s 2025 chairmanship year expires. Maritime affairs were also in the mix when Vietnam recently upgraded its ties with both Indonesia and Singapore, with Hanoi being one of four formal Southeast Asian claimants in the South China Sea disputes3. More broadly, officials from G7 members — comprising Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, the United States and the European Union as a non-enumerated member — also had to manage scrutiny around intra-grouping ties given differences on subjects ranging from Ukraine to tariffs.
Select Key Recent Maritime-Related Developments in Southeast Asia Amid G-7 Engagements
The development highlighted the intersection of related challenges between Southeast Asia and the wider world. The G7 made specific reference to “dangerous maneuvers” by China against both the Philippines and Vietnam which drew Beijing’s ire and was yet another manifestation of the integration of regional issues into the agenda4. In the case of the Philippines, officials say G7 coordination has been ongoing amid Manila’s involvement as a non-member, as exemplified by Foreign Secretary Enrique Manalo’s attendance at an expanded meeting late last year5. The Philippines has also been negotiating defense pacts with several G7 members and is a hub for maritime cooperation, with a publicized example being the usage of G7 president Canada’s Dark Vessel Detection system6. The G7 also made references to ASEAN as a potential partner and to common challenges like protecting critical underwater infrastructure which forward-leaning Southeast Asian states have been advancing within some fora7.
Why It Matters
The engagement also shed light on key details in the evolving agenda and their global and regional implications (see originally generated ASEAN Wonk table below on notable datapoints and additional specifics. Paying subscribers can read on for more on what to expect and future implications in the rest of the “Why It Matters” and “Where It’s Headed” sections, along with paid-only sections of the newsletter as usual).
Notable Additional Details to Watch Along with Key Domains and Major Initiatives
