Review: A New Coming US China Strategy Under Trump II?
A new book forecasts future scenarios in US China policy and examines the coming implications for Southeast Asia, the Indo-Pacific and the wider world.
A new book forecasts future scenarios in U.S. China policy and examines the coming implications for Southeast Asia, the Indo-Pacific and the wider world.
WonkCount: 1,847 words (~9 minutes)
Review: A New Coming US China Strategy Under Trump II?
Context
“These are going to be very, very difficult negotiations over the next 90 days,” recently departed U.S. ambassador to China Nicholas Burns said earlier this week when asked about the narrative that Beijing had triumphed over Washington in a newly-announced trade deal on the back of perceived inroads including in Southeast Asia1. As Burns noted, the lifting of what was essentially an embargo belies the wider challenge of the lack of a strategy thus far to manage complex two-way linkages between both countries, which includes an upwards of 20 million manufacturing jobs in China dependent on U.S. trade by one count within the world’s largest trading relationship valued at over $600 billion in goods and services2. “I think we have not seen a full explanation or articulation of what President Trump wants to do writ large in China policy,” he noted3. That bigger picture is also being closely monitored by individual Southeast Asian states given the impact on economic growth and their own ongoing trade talks with Washington progressing at varying speeds.
Recent Developments in US-China Relations and Southeast Asia Implications Amid New Trade Deal
A new book Breaking the Engagement by scholar David Shambaugh explores the range of future scenarios surrounding the trajectory of U.S. China policy4. In doing so, it adds to an array of recent books that offer insights into the future evolution of U.S.-China policy, some of which we have reviewed here at ASEAN Wonk. These include On Xi Jinping by Australia’s ambassador to China Kevin Rudd and Cold Rivals by former White House official Evan Medeiros5. Breaking the Engagement argues that contrary to suggestions of a clear bipartisan consensus on countering China, several factors are still at play shaping the dynamics of differing approaches that are likely to continue to compete over time6. “[T]his cohort is but one of five schools of thought that are currently competing to prevail in the ongoing debate over how to cast a new American China strategy,” the book argues before elaborating on what factors may drive the shaping of US China policy in the coming years7.
Analysis
Breaking the Engagement also forecasts the outlook for US China policy in the coming years (see originally generated ASEAN Wonk table below for a summary of future scenarios and policy contours, along with major coming datapoints to watch. Paying subscribers can also read the rest of the “Analysis” section and “Implications” section looking at how these dynamics play out in the future).
Future Datapoints to Watch in US-China Policy, Along With Key Scenarios and Notable Policy Contours
