Fragile Ceasefire Fears Amid Thailand-Cambodia Border Talks
Plus new Kremlin voyages, quiet trilateral meet; giant military deal; coming trade pact chatter; major digital launch; anti-disruption law and much, much more.
Greetings to new readers and welcome all to the latest edition of the weekly ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief! If you haven’t already, you can upgrade to a paid subscription for $5 a month/$50 a year below to receive full posts by inserting your email address and then selecting an annual or monthly option. You can visit this page for more on pricing for institutions, groups as well as discounts. For current paid subscribers, please make sure you’re hitting the “view entire message” prompt if it comes up at the end of a post to see the full version.
For this iteration of ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief, we are looking at:
Assessing the geopolitical and geoeconomic significance of fragile ceasefire fears in an ongoing border row and future regional implications lying ahead;
Mapping of regional developments, including new Kremlin voyages as well as coming electoral anxieties;
Charting evolving geopolitical, geoeconomic and security trends such as quiet trilateral meet; new major power investment; and key digital launch;
Tracking and analysis of industry developments and quantitative indicators including giant military deal; coming trade pact; anti-disruption law and more;
And much more! ICYMI, check out our ASEAN Wonk review of a new book on the future trajectory of India’s great power status quest and how it matters.
This Week’s WonkCount: 2,116 words (~10 minutes)
New Kremlin Voyages; Coming Election Anxieties & More
Blockade Wargaming; Leadership Aspirations & Greening Trends
“Numerous allies could play a role in running shuttle convoys,” notes a new report wargaming the implications of a China blockade of Taiwan released by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. The report includes an analysis of historical cases such as the Berlin Airlift during the Cold War as well as policy recommendations across areas including contingency planning (link).
Graphic with Select Comparison Metrics For Berlin Airlift vs. Hypothetical Taiwan Airlift
“[A]SEAN must prove that it is not only relevant but capable of leading amid uncertainty,” according to a perspective published in the Regional Security Outlook by the Council for Security Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific. The account argues that Malaysia’s ASEAN chairmanship aims to cultivate “pragmatic and inclusive leadership,” with a goal of “putting our money where our mouth is” (link).
“91 percent of all newly commissioned utility-scale renewable projects delivered electricity as a lower cost than the cheapest new fossil fuel-fired alternative” within the past year, notes the introduction to a new report by the International Renewable Energy Agency. The report notes growth in renewables was largely driven by Asia regionally, with China alone accounting for 61.2 percent of new solar PV and 69.4 percent of new wind installations (link).
Regional Count for Renewable Power Cumulative Installed Capacity, 2023-2024
Fragile Ceasefire Fears Amid Thailand-Cambodia Border Talks
What’s Behind It
Fragile ceasefire fears lingered as Cambodia and Thailand moved ahead with border consultations and agreed steps following talks in Malaysia1. Some Thai officials have had to cancel wider meetings as the country steps up border briefings and site visits with foreign interlocutors, which ASEAN Wonk witnessed first hand en route to a defense-related engagement in Bangkok on Sunday2. It is also hard to miss Cambodia state media stepping up its highlighting of the global nature of nationalist sentiment, including cited Khmer community protests across Indo-Pacific capitals like New Zealand and South Korea3. Both sides also juggled the dispute amid outside power interest, with initial references to a “U.S.-Malaysia-organized process” to conflict management raising some eyebrows given wider dynamics of U.S.-Malaysia ties and U.S.-China competition4.
Select Recent Developments in Southeast Asia Amid Cambodia-Thailand Border Row Ceasefire Talks
Narratives around U.S.-China involvement also belie the sensitivities around “internationalization” historically in the dispute. Malaysia Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s mention of U.S. and Chinese facilitation as an example of “constructive engagement” by external partners is not surprising given the roles Beijing and Washington have already been quietly playing and Malaysia’s priorities as the ASEAN chair5. Yet officials are also aware of the risks given the different perceptions by both Bangkok and Phnom Penh on “internationalization” and impacts on their interests. For instance, one of the cited “betrayals” in Thai nationalist accounts of the 1962 International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruling in favor of Cambodia was the role of former U.S. secretary of state Dean Acheson on the Cambodian side despite Thailand’s status as a treaty ally (in spite of other realities including U.S. moves to reinforce the U.S.-Thai alliance at the time)6.
Why It Matters
The state of play also points to future datapoints to watch across key areas in conflict management and regional and global implications (see originally generated ASEAN Wonk table below on notable areas to monitor and additional specifics. Paying subscribers can read on for more on what to expect and future implications in the rest of the “Why It Matters” and “Where It’s Headed” sections, along with paid-only sections of the newsletter as usual).
Key Conflict Aspects and Datapoints With Regional and Global Implications, Including Notable Additional Details
