ASEAN Unveils New Major Power Efforts Amid Tariff Realities
Plus new trade breakthrough; infrastructure termination; artificial intelligence hub launch; digital deal unveiling; mineral fund chatter and much, much more.
Greetings to new readers and welcome all to the latest edition of the weekly ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief! If you haven’t already, you can upgrade to a paid subscription for $5 a month/$50 a year below to receive full posts by inserting your email address and then selecting an annual or monthly option. You can visit this page for more on pricing for institutions, groups as well as discounts. For current paid subscribers, please make sure you’re hitting the “view entire message” prompt if it comes up at the end of a post to see the full version.
For this iteration of ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief, we are looking at:
Assessing the geopolitical and geoeconomic significance of the outcomes and future implications of newly-announced inroads between major powers and Southeast Asian states following ministerial meetings;
Mapping of regional developments, including new trade breakthrough; new nuclear pact and Mekong subregional diplomacy;
Charting evolving geopolitical, geoeconomic and security trends such as infrastructure termination; artificial intelligence hub launch and mapping future data center risks;
Tracking and analysis of industry developments and quantitative indicators including digital deal unveiling, mineral fund chatter and strongman pulse check and more;
And much more! ICYMI, check out our ASEAN Wonk review of a new book published earlier this week on military ascendancy and its implications for foreign and security policy.
This Week’s WonkCount: 2,125 words (~10 minutes)
New Nuclear Pact; Mekong Subregional Diplomacy & More
Demographic Doom Fears; Tariff Talk & Digital Divides
“[I]n one-quarter of OECD countries, including many Eastern Asian…countries, it is projected to fall by more than 30% – and by up to 46% in Korea,” notes a new report by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) that addresses economic and demographic realities. The report also notes that high rates of decline of the working-age population is also at play for accession members, with a case in point being Thailand (link).
Baseline Scenario of Projected Changes in Employment-to-Population Ratio By Channel To 2060 (In % Points)
"The outcomes of the talks are not a one-off – they will have serious implications for other countries, particularly Vietnam’s fellow ASEAN members,” argues a new commentary published over at The Straits Times that addresses the U.S.-Vietnam economic deal and implications for tariff negotiations involving Southeast Asian states. The commentary suggests that while Vietnam may be the “trendsetter,” for now, there are unanswered questions about both the deal as well as the U.S. approach moving forward (link).
“[T]he benefits of digitization cannot be realized without balancing these regulations with the free flow of data,” concludes a new report released by the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA) on prospects for data governance in Southeast Asia and implications for the Digital Economy Framework Agreement (DEFA). The report notes there are some outstanding questions that remain, including unevenness with respect to the level of data transparency and rights specified in adopted data protection legislation (link).
Differences Across ASEAN Member States on Data Identification (By Category and Type)
ASEAN Unveils New Major Power Efforts Amid Tariff Realities
What’s Behind It
Major power engagements in Southeast Asia were in the spotlight during ASEAN ministerial meetings and related interactions held July 8-11 in Malaysia. The meetings came after a range of high-profile meetings over the past month covered on ASEAN Wonk such as the BRICS summit and summer Davos. One Southeast Asian minister captured the mood music in a single word as “sober” given concerns around everything from tariff announcements to tensions in Europe and the Middle East1. Ministers also referenced worrying trend lines, including global aid cuts which by one count could cause million of deaths by the end of the decade2. Nonetheless, the meetings provided a convening venue for sideline engagements, including subregional and cross-regional trilaterals like the U.S.-Japan-Philippine ministerial meeting which referenced the anniversary of the tribunal ruling on Manila’s case against China in the South China Sea3. Diplomatic forays by African and Latin American countries was also testament to the global quest for diversification, even as ASEAN states contend with how to translate engagement into tangible collaboration to address manifold challenges4.
Select Notable Recent Regional Developments Amid ASEAN Ministerial Meetings
ASEAN countries took stock of their ties with a wider set of key partners, highlighting future areas to watch. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on his first regional trip reiterated talking points officials have been briefing on enduring U.S. commitment in Southeast Asia, but had to field tough questions raised to others as well previously on everything from tariff developments to U.S. government capacity5. Russia signaled its hope that a new ASEAN strategic plan can be reached by the end of 2025 to recalibrate its regional engagement, while also railing against unnamed “trios” and “quartets” even as it held talks with Washington6. Beyond the meetings themselves, the announced breakthrough on a trade pact between the European Union and Indonesia during President Prabowo Subianto’s Brussels stop after a decade of talks also pointed to cross-continental opportunities for sectoral geoeconomic collaboration, even if officials caution there is still work to be done for it to actually be economically impactful7.
Why It Matters
The deliberations also pointed to future datapoints to watch in major power engagements with Southeast Asian states and wider Indo-Pacific and global implications across priority areas and pillars (see originally generated ASEAN Wonk table below on notable datapoints to monitor and additional specifics. Paying subscribers can read on for more on what to expect and future implications in the rest of the “Why It Matters” and “Where It’s Headed” sections, along with paid-only sections of the newsletter as usual).
Future Datapoints to Watch on Major Power Engagements in Southeast Asia and Wider Indo-Pacific and Global Implications, Along with Cooperation Areas Prioritized and Key Partners
