Review: Coup Fear and Praetorian Kingdom Dread in Thailand?
New book release amid controversy examines the future trajectory of military ascendancy in an environment of renewed uncertainty on foreign and security policy.
A new book examines the future trajectory of military ascendancy amid renewed foreign and security policy uncertainty and shifting domestic political dynamics.
WonkCount: 1,569 words (~7 minutes)
Review: Coup Fear and Praetorian Kingdom Dread in Thailand?
Context
“I won’t object if the military does something,” a veteran protest leader said recently in headline-grabbing remarks amid another round of coup speculation in Thailand after political fallout stemming from a high-profile foreign policy development1. To seasoned observers of the country, periodic speculation on this front belies a more systemic dynamic of long-held military dominance, with the country experiencing dozens of coups since its transition to constitutional monarchy in 1932, including in 2008 and 2014. A narrow focus on military coups alone also masks other non-military maneuvers meant to either influence or circumvent election outcomes also seen in other similar cases globally2.
Select Recent Security-Related Developments in Southeast Asia
A new book Praetorian Kingdom by scholar Paul Chambers examines the future trajectory of the military and the potential effects on foreign and security policy3. Quite apart from the controversy surrounding Chambers’ brief arrest earlier this year, the book distinguishes itself from the many works written previously on the military by covering the period from its founding dated as 1852 up to the present day, and joins the range of recent books that shed light on Indo-Pacific security dynamics4. This includes ones reviewed on ASEAN Wonk with respect to flashpoint scenarios like Taiwan; technology spillovers in major power competition or regional civil-military futures.5 Praetorian Kingdom charts out multiple pathways for the country’s external outlook in the shadow of military ascendancy using the familiar frame of the “praetorian” state dating back to the ancient Roman empire’s Praetorian Guard tasked with protecting the emperor6. “Though it is difficult to speculate about what is around the corner, there are four scenarios for the future,” the book notes before specifying what those are and implications for foreign and security policy7.
Analysis
Praetorian Kingdom forecasts the evolution of policy dynamics in the coming years and its implications (see originally-generated ASEAN Wonk table below for a summary of these priority areas, along with major issues to watch and notable details. Paying subscribers can also read the rest of the “Analysis” section and “Implications” section looking at how these dynamics play out in the future).
Key Scenarios to Watch, Along with Future Policy Contours and Notable Additional Datapoints
