Review: Coercion Calculus and China South China Sea Futures
New book assesses future implications of China's coercive statecraft for major Indo-Pacific flashpoints and disputes as well as ways to counter Beijing.
A new book assesses future implications of China's coercive statecraft for major Indo-Pacific flashpoints and disputes as well as ways to counter Beijing.
WonkCount: 1,489 words (~7 minutes)
Review: Coercion Calculus and China South China Sea Futures
Context
“I hope that our two nations can continuously communicate with each other to oppose attempts to change the status quo in the East and South China Seas by force or coercion,” Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said this week during his visit to the Philippines where both sides publicized some next steps in their defense cooperation1. The reference to coercion came amid another tension-filled week in the South China Sea with dueling claims by both Beijing and Manila over the status of disputed Sandy Cay2. More generally, it also reinforces the broader question as to how effective Beijing’s use of sticks has been to date relative to carrots, with some previous studies pointing to multiple instances of failed maritime coercion3.
Select Recent Flashpoint and Maritime-Related Developments in Southeast Asia
A new book China’s Gambit by scholar Ketian Zhang advances a new approach to assessing and forecasting Beijing’s efforts at coercion in the Indo-Pacific4. In doing so, it adds to a list of recent book-length studies that address China’s approach in this respect either directly or indirectly, including ones reviewed in these pages such as Kevin Rudd’s On Xi Jinping and Isaac Kardon’s China Law of the Sea. China’s Gambit argues that managing Chinese coercion requires a granular understanding of how Beijing assesses needs and costs in specific cases including in the East and South China Seas, rather than just an evaluation of Xi’s tendencies, popular nationalism or raw power5. “China…is curiously selective in its timing, targets and tools of coercion,” the book argues before going on to elaborate on what these specifications are across major cases in the Indo-Pacific region6.
Analysis
China’s Gambit also forecasts the outlook for Chinese coercion in the coming years (see originally generated ASEAN Wonk table below for a summary of features and key domains, along with major coming datapoints to watch. Paying subscribers can also read the rest of the “Analysis” section and “Implications” section looking at how these dynamics play out in the future).
Future Areas to Watch in China Indo-Pacific Coercion, Along With Major Datapoints and Key Variables
