Where Next For China Thailand 2025 Ties After Paetongtarn Visit?
Plus coming trade upgrade; critical mineral race inroads; new space pact; energy strategy recalibration; fund futures; poll uncertainty and much, much more.
Greetings to new readers and welcome all to the latest edition of the weekly ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief! If you haven’t already, you can upgrade to a paid subscription for $5 a month/$50 a year below to receive full posts by inserting your email address and then selecting an annual or monthly option. You can visit this page for more on pricing for institutions, groups as well as discounts. For current paid subscribers, please make sure you’re hitting the “view entire message” prompt if it comes up at the end of a post to see the full version.
For this iteration of ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief, we are looking at:
Assessing the geopolitical and geoeconomic significance of China-Thailand “golden” anniversary summitry and wider regional implications;
Mapping of regional developments including coming trade upgrade and foreign interference crackdown;
Charting evolving geopolitical, geoeconomic and security trends such as critical mineral race inroads, new space pact and poll uncertainty;
Tracking and analysis of industry developments and quantitative indicators including new energy strategy, fund futures; new labor guidance and more;
And much more! ICYMI, check out our review of a new book by a former ASEAN deputy secretary-general on how the grouping can navigate the current geopolitical and geoeconomic environment.
This Week’s WonkCount: 1,774 words (~8 minutes)
Coming Trade Upgrade; Foreign Interference Crackdown & More
Tariff Futures; Shifting Indo-Pacific Threat Perceptions & Regional Integration Prospects
“One has to go back almost a century to find tariff increases comparable to what the president is planning…” notes a new analysis released by the Peterson Institute for International Economics on the historic significance of U.S. President Donald Trump’s ongoing tariff actions. The analysis notes that while the tariff amounts themselves pale relative to the 1980s, 1920s and 1930s, utilizing these comparisons to assess disuptive impacts have their limits as well due to changes in the U.S. economy. These include the larger share of trade in the U.S. economy relative to the past and the growth of global supply chains and international production networks (link).
Historic Tariff Comparisons in the U.S. Economy
“There is now a pronounced emphasis on the increasing importance of protecting critical infrastructure, sensitive information and individual privacy,” according to a new report of the Philippines as part of a series on risk and threat perception in the Indo-Pacific published by Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung that also includes Thailand, Singapore and Vietnam within the Southeast Asia section. The report leverages previous survey data on the top threats to the Philippines, with the South China Sea, digital issues, terrorism and U.S.-China competition all ranking quite highly (link to series).
Snapshot of Top 10 Security Concerns in the Philippines
“The sluggish and volatile growth, which is mainly attributable to political uncertainty, must stop,” argues a newly published analysis of ASEAN membership and East Timor’s development written by the country’s former finance minister. The analysis includes several recommendations for the country across the three ASEAN community pillars (link).
Growth of GDP Per Capita for ASEAN Member States
Where Next For China Thailand 2025 Ties After Paetongtarn Visit?
What’s Behind It
China and Thailand signed several new pacts during Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s visit. Paetongtarn was one of several leaders visiting China amid the 9th iteration of the Asian Winter Games, with others including Brunei, Kyrgyzstan and Pakistan1. Despite some unfinished agenda items, both sides publicly played up the visit within the broader context of the 50th “golden” anniversary of diplomatic ties with preparations underway since last year.2 The optics of Paetongtarn’s visit timing also drew more attention to the state of ties than might otherwise have been the case. For instance, ASEAN Wonk understands from one source that questions were raised around why Thailand had agreed to the optics of being the only “official visit” designation alongside other leader visits that constituted “state visits,” despite the reality that visit designations and timings have complexities of their own3.
Select Key Recent Developments in China’s Relations with Southeast Asian States
The visit was an early window into China’s evolving 2025 diplomacy with Southeast Asian states and with Thailand in particular. These were the first two visits by Southeast Asian leaders to China in 2025 after a string of trips made in late 2024. Unsurprisingly, Chinese state media were keen to rhetorically play up the visit’s significance in collaborating “to defend the international system,” a not-so-subtle reference China’s narrative of solidarity with the wider Global South relative to the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump4. Paetongtarn was able to point to inroads Thailand had made ahead of the visit in progressing long-delayed high-speed rail plans and countering giant scam networks, both of which were priority items for Beijing within its wider Southeast Asia approach5.
Why It Matters
The visit also shed light on key developments and details in the evolving agenda with bilateral, regional and global components (see originally generated ASEAN Wonk table below on notable datapoints and additional specifics. Paying subscribers can read on for more on what to expect and future implications in the rest of the “Why It Matters” and “Where It’s Headed” sections, along with paid-only sections of the newsletter as usual).
Future Datapoints To Watch, Along With Select Major Priorities And Key Domains
