BRICS New Development Bank Southeast Asia Links in Focus
Plus earthquake aftermath, artificial intelligence vision inroads, new maritime infrastructure bid; legal dispute hype; supply chain shifts and much, much more.
Greetings to new readers and welcome all to the latest edition of the weekly ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief! If you haven’t already, you can upgrade to a paid subscription for $5 a month/$50 a year below to receive full posts by inserting your email address and then selecting an annual or monthly option. You can visit this page for more on pricing for institutions, groups as well as discounts. For current paid subscribers, please make sure you’re hitting the “view entire message” prompt if it comes up at the end of a post to see the full version.
For this iteration of ASEAN Wonk BulletBrief, we are looking at:
Assessing the geopolitical and geoeconomic significance of evolving BRICS-Southeast Asia links and wider regional and global implications (Note to Readers: ASEAN Wonk was on the ground this week in Indonesia as part of the latest multi-country regional research swing through Southeast Asia. Most of the conversations we had on the ground were confidential and for a couple of separate projects, but we provide below in the latest WonkDive a snapshot of what we found by way of relevant insights on recent developments);
Mapping of regional developments, such as earthquake aftermath, China Asia forum and new upgrade inroads;
Charting evolving geopolitical, geoeconomic and security trends such as new data watchdog; maritime infrastructure bid and legal dispute;
Tracking and analysis of industry developments and quantitative indicators including new artificial intelligence vision inroads: big dependency risks; Indo-Pacific supply chain shifts and more;
And much more! ICYMI, check out our latest ASEAN Wonk Podcast episode featuring an ex-diplomat discussing naval base fears, China risks, border disputes, leadership dynamics, diversification and more in Cambodia’s foreign policy outlook.
This Week’s WonkCount: 2,087 words (~ 9 minutes)
Earthquake Aftermath; China Asia Forum & More
World Order Views; Cyber Scan & Global South Futures
"Asia-Pacific states are themselves disinclined to oblige this type of great power contest…nor does China show any sign of being willing to give up its footprints in Latin America or Africa," notes the concluding section of a Chatham House research on visions of international order. The report has 13 sections and addresses the challenges of international order from the perspective of 11 countries which include Brazil, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Iran, Japan, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey (link).
“Southeast Asia faces three hurdles to cooperative cybersecurity… persistent capability gaps, divergent perspectives, strategic realities…,” notes in a piece on Philippine cybersecurity published by the East-West Center. The assessment is part of a series that spotlights 9 case studies from Southeast Asia including Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. The reports address risks and opportunities in the cyber landscape of Southeast Asia which includes themes such as resilience, readiness, foreign influence, major power competition and capacity building (link).
Source: Wikimedia Commons "Trade wars, tariffs, and sanctions have been transformed from economic tools into weapons in a broader struggle for dominance, fostering an atmosphere of suspicion and distrust," notes Prime Minister of Malaysia Anwar Ibrahim in an op-ed with Project Syndicate. The piece addresses a range of geopolitical and geoeconomic issues that Malaysia confronts during its 2025 chairmanship in advancing Southeast Asia’s interests. Anwar argues that navigating the geopolitics requires new strategies that rely on smart diplomacy, strategic flexibility, and solidarity with other Southeast Asian countries like Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia as well as emerging economies like South Korea, India, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Brazil, and South Africa (link).
Source: Department of Information Malaysia
BRICS New Development Bank Southeast Asia Links in Focus
What’s Behind It
Southeast Asia's links with the BRICS grouping were in the spotlight with Indonesia's interest in joining the New Development Bank (NDB)1. The interest was played up during NDB president Dilma Rousseff's meeting with Indonesia President Prabowo Subianto, one of several interactions during the week highlighting Indonesia's ties with major powers amid the run up to Hari Raya celebrations as ASEAN Wonk was in Jakarta. Indonesia was among the regional countries sending high-level representation to China for Beijing's annual Boao Forum2. At home, Indonesia also highlighted the prospects of elevating ties with both Russia and France3.
Select Key Recent Geopolitical and Geoeconomic Developments Amid BRICS Southeast Asia Links
Source: Graphic by ASEAN Wonk Team The BRICS links came amid wider geopolitical and geoeconomic uncertainties. The original BRICS members have been working through quiet compromises to make the grouping attractive to the wider Global South, with a case in point being the decision to let Rousseff hold her post for another term given the potential challenges of having a Russian chief next4. Yet BRICS engagement nonetheless continues to bring more scrutiny on economic realities of members and partner countries alike. For instance, as much as Indonesia's diplomacy under Prabowo continues to be active, it was difficult for ASEAN Wonk to have a single geopolitical conversation with interlocutors without references made to economic uncertainties stemming from factors including agency budget cuts and the depreciation of the rupiah5. More generally, there continue to be questions raised about the policy feedback loop and process between Prabowo's inner circle and key ministries.
Why It Matters
The revelation also sheds light on the broader set of new and future datapoints to watch in regional links to the BRICS amid wider regional and global institutional trends and developments (see originally generated ASEAN Wonk table below on notable indicators and additional specifics. Paying subscribers can read on for more on what to expect and future implications in the rest of the “Why It Matters” and “Where It’s Headed” sections, along with paid-only sections of the newsletter as usual).
Notable Future Areas To Watch, Along With Select Major Datapoints Across Key Countries
